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Future of ICE cars after Robotaxi/FSD launch?

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zhu-

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Oct 24, 2018
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If we assumed that Robotaxi goes live without regulatory challenges and is accepted and adopted by the public, would the average person who just wants a method of transportation still own a car?

From Tesla's autonomy day, if a Robotaxi charges $0.30 per mile, then riding in one is cheaper than owning and operating your own car at anywhere from $0.45 to $0.75/mile according to AAA, 2017:

RmJl4Gi.png


If this is the case, how many people do you expect will sell their cars and ride Robotaxis exclusively? Of course car enthusiasts and people who value privacy and convenience will still have their own car, but for the average low-mid income person, the cost savings might be convincing. Would the used car markets react with continued price reductions causing more people to sell their ICE cars while they still can?

Maybe households will keep one car for events like groceries, trips, or other activity requiring more storage but Tesla could also allow private Robotaxis for these scenarios as well.

I don't want to turn this into a discussion of whether Robotaxis and FSD is possible but assuming a reality where it is, what are your thoughts on non-autonomous ICE car ownership during that time?
 
If we assumed that Robotaxi goes live without regulatory challenges and is accepted and adopted by the public, would the average person who just wants a method of transportation still own a car?

From Tesla's autonomy day, if a Robotaxi charges $0.30 per mile, then riding in one is cheaper than owning and operating your own car at anywhere from $0.45 to $0.75/mile according to AAA, 2017:

RmJl4Gi.png


If this is the case, how many people do you expect will sell their cars and ride Robotaxis exclusively? Of course car enthusiasts and people who value privacy and convenience will still have their own car, but for the average low-mid income person, the cost savings might be convincing. Would the used car markets react with continued price reductions causing more people to sell their ICE cars while they still can?

Maybe households will keep one car for events like groceries, trips, or other activity requiring more storage but Tesla could also allow private Robotaxis for these scenarios as well.

I don't want to turn this into a discussion of whether Robotaxis and FSD is possible but assuming a reality where it is, what are your thoughts on non-autonomous ICE car ownership during that time?

Curious where you saw $0.30 per miles for Robotaxis? I thought I heard $1.00/mile.
 
He said it would cost about 30 cents per mile to run the robotaxi but (IIRC) the cost for the customer would be about $1 per mile. But it sounded very preliminary & somewhat speculative at this point. I took it as a rough estimation of the potential and nothing firm.

Oh yeah, that was a big error on my part. Never mind then :eek: