Future of the Tesla (NA) connector - speculation (and clues via South Korea?)

[EfficientWatts]

With the Model 3 getting CCS and adapters for the S and X for CCS access in europe, many of us were wondering how it will play out in NA, especially since the Model 3 is now in production.

The easy answer is to say that Tesla would go CCS1 in NA, but there are a few things that complicate that:

• larger install base of Tesla connector cars makes it harder (though not impossible)
• Model 3 shipping with the Tesla connector and setup in large volume
• Markets like Japan (and Taiwan?) that don't have CCS at all

I think we may get a preview of what's to come when they start shipping to South Korea. SK is in a weird situation in that Tesla uses Type 2 there, but going forward SK will be CCS1 for DC charging (South Korea To Standardize CCS/Combo Fast Charge Standard), so they cannot just add the 2 DC pins for the model 3. Tesla has a few options here:

• go CCS1 for model 3, add CCS1 connector to superchargers, and provide adapters to use existing Type 2 chargers (will be limited to single phase though).
• go CCS2 for model 3, add CCS2 connector to superchargers, provide CCS2 -> CCS1 adapter on demand
• stay Type 2 only, but keep Type 2 DC behavior
• Go with Tesla connector, add Tesla connector to superchargers and provide Tesla -> CCS1 adapter, Tesla -> Type 2 adapter (single phase only), J1772 adapter
  • This seems a bit crazy with all the adapters but you have advantage of scale with the NA market for Tesla -> CCS1 adapters
• Something else? maybe dual connectors ala China? (Type 2 AC only and Type 1 AC& CCS?)

What do you think that Tesla will end up doing? And do you think that South Korea and Model 3 would provide possible hints as to what's to come?

Side note: One interesting note is that there are HPWC that use J1772 natively: Workplace charging: complete! : teslamotors. It shows that down the road Tesla could change over to J1772 on the A/C portion but keep the look and feel of the connector.

 

[fcharland]

Hopefull everybody will use the same connector sooner than later

 

[NeverFollow]

Hopefull everybody will use the same connector sooner than later

This remind me the USB (type 2/Mini/Micro) versus Apple (Lightning/Thunderbolt) and finally merging into USB (Type-C)

 

[MorrisonHiker]

The longer they wait, the more it will cost to switch things over.

 

[SageBrush]

Tesla is 80% of the US market ... and growing. With a network much better and faster than anything CCS1 might be for years. If and when CCS1 dies and converts to CCS2 Tesla may have reason to reconsider their NA stance.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Tesla is 80% of the US market ... and growing. With a network much better and faster than anything CCS1 might be for years. If and when CCS1 dies and converts to CCS2 Tesla may have reason to reconsider their NA stance.

Is there any reason why Tesla would have to go with CCS 1.0 instead of just going with CCS 2.0? Currently, isn't Supercharging faster/more powerful than CCS 1.0?

 

[ewoodrick]

Yall Tesla only folks just don't seem to realize, that the majority of US chargers are CHADEMO, not CCS. Most of the EV cars in the US are not from Europe.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Yall Tesla only folks just don't seem to realize, that the majority of US chargers are CHADEMO, not CCS. Most of the EV cars in the US are not from Europe.

We're also 100% sure Tesla won't be switching to CHAdeMO.

 

[hiroshiy]

Is there any reason why Tesla would have to go with CCS 1.0 instead of just going with CCS 2.0? Currently, isn't Supercharging faster/more powerful than CCS 1.0?

View attachment 363928

CCS version 1 and CCS version 2 are versions as you described, and what we are supposedly talking about is Combo 1 and 2, which is a difference in connector shapes, where in the US Combo 1's top part is J1772 and in EU Combo 2's top part is Type 2. These plugs are designed to be a single plug for AC and DC.

That said I believe South Korean superchargers are European type - they use Tesla spec type 2 connector right now and they are expanding their supercharger network right now. And I heard the government is standardizing on Combo 1, which is not compatible with both existing Type 2 AC and superchargers, so Combo 1 choice doesn't make sense at all.

My 2 cents - Tesla will watch how South Korea goes, but won't follow. Keep Tesla plug for US and Japan, Combo 2 for the rest. Not sure about CHAdeMO but Tesla can provide adapter in Japan where superchargers are not very common.

 

[miimura]

@hiroshiy - how many CHAdeMO chargers are there in Japan that are above 50kW? We are starting to get 100kW CHAdeMO in California, but they're made by American and European charger manufacturers. I recall there were a lot of low power ~25kW CHAdeMO installed in Japan.

 

[hiroshiy]

@hiroshiy - how many CHAdeMO chargers are there in Japan that are above 50kW? We are starting to get 100kW CHAdeMO in California, but they're made by American and European charger manufacturers. I recall there were a lot of low power ~25kW CHAdeMO installed in Japan.

Still zero. There are electrical issues that aren't resolved yet even in 2018 - Japanese government is doing a very poor job!
Basically one location can only have electrical feed. So if you have a building and a parking in one location and install DCFCs, you need to upgrade the main transformer for the building anD bury the line from there all the way to the parking. There are some exceptions but it is still difficult to go over 50kW.

Only 1 Japanese manufacturer has a DCFC >50kW as of now (I think it's only 100kW) and there is no liquid cooling cables for CHAdeMO yet, so difficult to go over 150kW.

People still keep installing 20kW and 25kW toy chargers here, while Tesla keeps installing superchargers at a slow, but steady pace.

 

[miimura]

Still zero. There are electrical issues that aren't resolved yet even in 2018 - Japanese government is doing a very poor job!
Basically one location can only have electrical feed. So if you have a building and a parking in one location and install DCFCs, you need to upgrade the main transformer for the building anD bury the line from there all the way to the parking. There are some exceptions but it is still difficult to go over 50kW.

Only 1 Japanese manufacturer has a DCFC >50kW as of now (I think it's only 100kW) and there is no liquid cooling cables for CHAdeMO yet, so difficult to go over 150kW.

People still keep installing 20kW and 25kW toy chargers here, while Tesla keeps installing superchargers at a slow, but steady pace.

I had suspected as much. The 200kW chargers being installed here are limited to 100kW on CHAdeMO because the best cable is the Sumitomo 200 amp uncooled one while the CCS cable is cooled and can deliver 400 amps continuous and 500 amps for short durations. Utilities here will install new 500-750kVA service to a parking area, even in parallel with other existing services for the neighboring buildings.

I love your "toy chargers" characterization of the <=25kW units. We have some of those on an important highway corridor as the only DC chargers and they rarely get used because they're just too painful. People would rather drive a longer route that has proper 50kW chargers.

 

[SageBrush]

People still keep installing 20kW and 25kW toy chargers here, while Tesla keeps installing superchargers at a slow, but steady pace.

Presumably Tesla is subject to the same restrictions so this is more a difference in siting choice.

 

[hiroshiy]

Presumably Tesla is subject to the same restrictions so this is more a difference in siting choice.

I think it is rather a budget and willingness to put up high powered chargers. Tesla has both, but typical DCFC installers have no incentive to spend a lot of money in high voltage supply (required to deliver 44kW+). They get money from the government anyway, but it is limited to the charger and construction work and electrical work only, which doesn't include transformer upgrade to existing facilities.