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Future Range on Model S

Discussion in 'Model S: Battery & Charging' started by John E., Aug 25, 2017.

  1. John E.

    John E. Member

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    So if the M3 has a 310 mile range, better than most MS ever produced, can we reasonably expect that in the near future MS's will have a range well above 310?
     
  2. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    Like the 335 mile range in the 100D?
     
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  3. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #3 Troy, Aug 25, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2017
    Hi, @John E. Here are some of my predictions:
    1. All 75 kWh S/X will be discontinued by the end of Q2 2018 to increase gross margins. Tesla has two targets: units and gross margin. The 75 kWh S/X have around 12-14% gross margin. They were not discontinued until now because Tesla needed them for unit targets. With the Model 3, they don't need them anymore for units and they are no good for gross margins.
    2. Model S/X will switch from AC induction motors to the more efficient permanent magnet motors. This will increase highway range by 2% and city range by 8% based on some data points I have seen. The overall increase in EPA rated range will be 5%.
    3. All 100 kWh Model S and X prices will come down after the 75's are discontinued.
     
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  4. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    It's unlikely that the current S and X will get different motors. The 75 will be replaced by a new 85 very soon.
     
  5. John E.

    John E. Member

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    You are comparing a $50K car to a $120K car, no fair.
     
  6. John E.

    John E. Member

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    Re point 3, I guess that makes sense, since they are going to have to incent folks to buy the S instead of the 3.
     
  7. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    That's exactly what your question was about.
     
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  8. Dan43

    Dan43 Member

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    The 310 EPA rated M3, what will be the real world, not a single Tesla gets its EPA mileage as printed, so would a M3 be good for 295 real world miles then?
     
  9. ShockOnT

    ShockOnT Quickish

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    #9 ShockOnT, Aug 31, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2017
    My S75D gets 177 Wh/km on average.
    The M3 will be more efficient because it's lighter and has less drag. Let's say 160Wh/km.
    The M3 battery is about 80kWh, so would have a range of 80/0.16 = 500km.
    Plenty of assumptions here, but about right.

    Imperial version:
    The M3 would use just over 2 BTU per cape rood.
    With a battery of 108 cheval vapeur heure that's a distance of 104 leagues, give or take a parasang or two.
     
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  10. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    #10 Troy, Aug 31, 2017
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2017
    Hi, @Dan43. Here are the range numbers I'm calculating at 65 mph speed:
    • 200 mi: Model 3 55
    • 208 mi: Model 3 55D
    • 226 mi: Model S 75
    • 235 mi: Model S 75D
    • 304 mi: Model S 100D
    • 317 mi: Model 3 80
    • 330 mi: Model 3 80D
    Here are the details:
    • Model S 75D: This video by Consumer Reports shows 235 mi at 65 mph constant speed for the Model S 75D.
    • Model S 100D: The Model S 75D in the Consumer Reports video achieved 235/259= 90.7% of its EPA rated range at 65 mph. If we assume the same ratio is true for the Model S 100D, the range at 65 mph would be 335*90.7%= 304 miles.
    • Model 3 80: This and this EPA document shows that the Model 3 80 and Model S 100D have the same dyno score for the highway test. However, the dyno score does not account for air drag in any way. That 's why the dyno scores are so high. Air drag needs to be added on top of the dyno scores. The Model S has 0.24 drag coefficient and the Model 3 has 0.23. Therefore, Model 3 80's range should be 304*24/23= 317 miles at 65 mph
    • Model 3 80D: The AWD version is 259/249= 1.04 times more efficient. Therefore Model 3 80D's range should be 317*259/249= 330 miles at 65 mph.
    • Model 3 55: 220*235/259= 200 mi
    • Model 3 55D: 220*235/259*259/249= 208 mi
    • Model S 75: 249*235/259= 226 mi
     
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  11. Dan43

    Dan43 Member

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    Thanks @Troy

    Very thorough numbers :)

    M3 ranges seem rather efficient then, I guess like some though they do seem over stated as all the EPA ranges seem to be for the entire Tesla range, (lab tests like MPG for ICE that also is never the same as published in the real world) I guess my point being that the M3 will probably be the same and I wouldn't be surprised to see under 300 miles at 100% for a lot of the cars based on what all S and X cars have been displaying compared to their EPA values.

    Or do you feel that the M3 will stop this trend and be more accurate or even better than published (outside all caveats of driving style, weather, etc)
     
  12. Troy

    Troy Active Member

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    Looking at the numbers in my previous message, it appears the answer is no for the Model 3 55/55D. EPA range of the Model 3 80/80D/P80D is unknown at this time. Tesla never said 310 mi is EPA rated range. See the asterisk here.

    EPA's test procedure is too messed up because of these reasons:
    1. During the dyno tests, the speed numbers they use are too low both for the city and highway dyno tests. More info is available here on 'Test details' tab.
    2. EPA range should not include city range. The test was designed to measure the range of other EVs that have 50-100 miles range. For those cars, it made sense to measure city range. For Teslas, city range is irrelevant, only highway range is relevant. It is easier to understand if we exaggerate the problem. Let's assume a Tesla has 500 miles range in the city but only 100 miles range on the highway. According to EPA methods, the EPA rated range would be 500*0.55 + 100*0.45= 320 miles. I think this is wrong. Only the highway range should be advertised.
     
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  13. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    I get the EPA mileage in my 75D.
     
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  14. Dan43

    Dan43 Member

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    @jelloslug Thats great, my 75 gets 226 at 100% way below the 249 EPA, so are you getting 259 range at 100% on your 75D, this is the first I have heard someone getting that from an owner, bravo.

    Although a lot has now been written on how the BMS can be reset, getting the full range is great as per the figures on the screen.

    My last drive I have done 258 miles driving but still get only 226 when fully charged :)
     
  15. jelloslug

    jelloslug Active Member

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    The dual motor versions of the Model S are significantly more efficient than the RWD versions, especially on the highway. We have an 85 as a company car and when my S was still a 60D they had almost the same highway range (within 5 miles of each other). I can easily get 250 wh/m on the expressway with AP on.
     
  16. Snerruc

    Snerruc Member

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    My S75 averages 286 w/ mi for its life. Every drive includes serious mountain climbing and often a lot of stops, which add to usage. Typically on trips it gets 240 to 250 miles with a 30 mi reserve. Also several years ago CR said their protocol for electrics included charging to manufactures recommended mex. Tesla's is 90% many others don't have a recommendation. Hence some of the discrepancys. I don't know if they have changed.
     
  17. Boatguy

    Boatguy Member

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    Isn't it odd that no Tesla ever achieves its EPA range (including my S90D), but my BMW i3 routinely gets more range than its EPA rating?

    And the BMW has no setting for charging to less than 100%; BMW has kindly provided more battery capacity than the rating so that it always has regen.

    Do you think maybe Tesla is fudging the numbers a bit? Why is that?

    BMW, Mercedes and Audi are certainly all behind at the moment, but I'm expecting that we'll have a lot more choices 3-5yrs from now!
     
  18. ChadS

    ChadS Petroleum is for sissies

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    Plenty of owners get EPA range, even some in this thread (including the comment immediately before yours).

    Besides, "not getting EPA" doesn't (necessarily) mean something is wrong with the car. The phrase "your mileage may vary" is used because it depends on how you drive. The EPA test is purposely not done at 70mph in bad weather. You should not expect to get EPA range if you are not driving like the test.

    When I drive anywhere near EPA conditions (like 60mph on back highways on a nice spring or fall day), I have gotten and even exceeded EPA range in all of my Teslas. Our average over 160k miles is about 12% under EPA, which is fantastic given our lead feet and all the cold weather around here.
     
  19. mkjayakumar

    mkjayakumar Active Member

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    Maintaining 65 to 70mph I typically get more than EPA almost all the time in my S85 except in headwinds or less than 50F
     
  20. ran349

    ran349 Member

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    [QUOTE
    Here are the details:
    • Model S 75D: This video by Consumer Reports shows 235 mi at 65 mph constant speed for the Model S 75D.
    • Model S 100D: The Model S 75D in the Consumer Reports video achieved 235/259= 90.7% of its EPA rated range at 65 mph. If we assume the same ratio is true for the Model S 100D, the range at 65 mph would be 335*90.7%= 304 miles.
    • Model 3 80: This and this EPA document shows that the Model 3 80 and Model S 100D have the same dyno score for the highway test. However, the dyno score does not account for air drag in any way. That 's why the dyno scores are so high. Air drag needs to be added on top of the dyno scores. The Model S has 0.24 drag coefficient and the Model 3 has 0.23. Therefore, Model 3 80's range should be 304*24/23= 317 miles at 65 mph
    • Model 3 80D: The AWD version is 259/249= 1.04 times more efficient. Therefore Model 3 80D's range should be 317*259/249= 330 miles at 65 mph.
    • Model 3 55: 220*235/259= 200 mi
    • Model 3 55D: 220*235/259*259/249= 208 mi
    • Model S 75: 249*235/259= 226 mi
    [/QUOTE] It's interesting that under the same test conditions, the Bolt beat its EPA range by 5%, and the Tesla fell short of its EPA range by 9%. Under those test conditions, I would expect both cars should at least meet their EPA rating.
     

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