TMC is an independent, primarily volunteer organization that relies on ad revenue to cover its operating costs. Please consider whitelisting TMC on your ad blocker or making a Paypal contribution here: paypal.me/SupportTMC

future Roadster resale value?

Discussion in 'Roadster' started by raymond, Aug 23, 2009.

  1. raymond

    raymond Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2008
    Messages:
    345
    Location:
    The Netherlands
    #1 raymond, Aug 23, 2009
    Last edited: Aug 23, 2009
    Does anyone here have *any* realistic idea on how slowing sales is going to impact the value of a roadster X years down the line?

    Earlier today I had my scheduled test ride, and boy is this a fun car! I won't repeat what has been written all over the web, but it's all true. And to top it all of it (physically) suits me perfectly.

    I can afford a down payment and have connections to (cheaply) finance the rest, but when demand drops steeply so does the price - at least the price of (relatively new) 2nd hand roadsters. Parting with 100k euro to find a 2nd hand roadster in two years time being worth 60k could easily make me grumpy.

    Anybody who wants to place a bet on the price of a 100k sig250 EU Roadster 2, 4 and 6 years down the line?

    PS: word is that as of today 75% of the 250 EU signature cars have been sold
     
  2. Palpatine

    Palpatine Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2008
    Messages:
    1,357
    Location:
    Seattle
    I think the value of a used Roadster completely depends on the fate of Tesla Motors. If they go bankrupt and the Tesla Roadster is discontinued, then we can expect the value to stay high, similar to the RAV4 EV which traded typically between $45,000 to $65,000 for the past few years until recently.

    If Tesla Motors fails, nobody is likely to try to make a car like the Roadster for many years in the future, so it will be a rare car. All of the auto manufacturers appear to be aiming at the compact car space for their EVs. The Dodge Circuit is not nearly in the same league as the Tesla Roadster.

    If Tesla Motors continues to produce a few hundred Tesla Roadsters per year, every year, then we can expect normal car depreciation. If Tesla continues to improve with Roadster 3.0 and 4.0 then the value of our early cars will also be somewhat diminished by the newer technologies that come out.

    If Tesla gets to the point where there is no waiting list and you can drive off in a new Tesla Roadster the same day, there is no reason to pay $100,000 for a used Tesla Roadster.
     
  3. raymond

    raymond Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2008
    Messages:
    345
    Location:
    The Netherlands
    My worries would be that Roadster technology is too complicated for hobbyists to pick up, so Tesla's bankruptcy would mean no warranty, and no way to replace broken parts (body panels, PEM, engine, ...) But this can well be compensated by the Roadster's uniqueness - thanks for pointing that out.

    Sudden battery technology improvements might reduce the value of the roadster, but a 10-minute charge capability isn't *really* worth that much without a proper infrastructure which could easily take 10 years to develop.

    And even doubled capacity surely would be nice, but do I really want to travel 500 miles in a Roadster in a day? (naaah)

    Other EV's all having 0-60 times around 6.0sec would diminish the uniqueness of the Roadster, but I doubt they would rival the Roadster's "feel".

    Car depreciation guides seem to give 25% for the first year and 13% for the following years. The wear and tear on the Tesla's batteries probably gives faster depreciation for the Tesla.

    But would a 100k Roadster really be worth 40k after five years? What do you think?
     
  4. Kardax

    Kardax Member

    Joined:
    Jun 8, 2007
    Messages:
    258
    Location:
    Minnesota, USA
    There's no reason to think that the Tesla Roadster is any less vulnerable to depreciation than any other car. James is correct: as long as the company is producing new-and-improved models every year, the older ones will lose value just as fast as any other car.

    The used Tesla market is still extremely limited, but with time you might have some better options there, as a used Tesla would have already taken the massive depreciation hit.

    -Ryan
     
  5. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA

    Remember an electric car has hundreds of less parts to wear out. That should keep value higher than ICE cars

    I know that the Rav4 kept it's high value for a long time. At one point a used one went for 150% of it's new price. The resale is still near 100% of new and will probably stay high until a similar size and functionabiaty comes out.
     
  6. Palpatine

    Palpatine Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2008
    Messages:
    1,357
    Location:
    Seattle
    I think the RAV4 EV had the advantage of it being so unique for so long. Those SUVs had zero competition in the new or used car market. That was the only real option so when they rarely became available on Ebay or in some other market, they were seriously in demand.

    As soon as we get close to a real replacement EV being available as new from an automanufacturer, then I think the RAV4 EVs will dramatically lose value in the used car market.

    I would expect the same scenario for Tesla. If the Roadster ceases production and there are only 1,000 on the roads, and the only other EVs are compact and subcompact models, then the Roadsters will maintain high value as a rare vehicle. Until Ferrari or Porsche decides to make a high performance EV, the Roadster is the only option.
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    That's what I said.
    Of course I agree since it's the same as above.
     
  8. Palpatine

    Palpatine Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2008
    Messages:
    1,357
    Location:
    Seattle
    I didn't like the way you said it. My way was better. :biggrin:
     
  9. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    Swingandamiss!
    :eek:
     
  10. DrComputer

    DrComputer Member

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2009
    Messages:
    893
    Location:
    Sherman Oaks, CA
    Now now kids... Do I have to take away your toys and sit you both in the corner for a time out?
     
  11. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    Say I want to buy a used Roadster.

    I can get the vehicle's Car Fax and take the car to a mechanic for tires, suspension -non drivetrain checks (probably a Lotus expert) but what about taking it the a Tesla store? Will they download the car's driving profile for me?

    What about the stored GPS info? Will that say where the car has been charging and what charge stations were remembered?

    How far back does the car remember?

    Many of today's cars have computers. Is there precedence here?
     
  12. raymond

    raymond Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2008
    Messages:
    345
    Location:
    The Netherlands
    Are there perhaps significant facts that the car doesn't even measure? Outside temperature; number of hours with SOC < 10%; number of full (100%) charges; time spent in performance (hot battery) mode?

    As I posted 10 minutes ago in another thread: I want to be able to measure the quality of the batteries, and preferable not by doing a full-charge/drive-200+-miles/tow-roadster-home-with-dead-batteries routine.

    Perhaps a Tesla Roadster owner can ask someone at Tesla Motors?
     
  13. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    The temp gauge in the Roadster is discombobulated. Someone one told me what it is measuring cause it sure is not measuring static temp like you might see on a Bank sign.
     
  14. tomsax

    tomsax Member

    Joined:
    Jun 19, 2008
    Messages:
    867
    Location:
    Sammamish, WA
    Here's another possibility: Tesla stays in business, has great success with Model S and eventually Blue Star, but they stop making Roadsters because the market is too small to make a profit. Tesla (or even someone else) provides new or refurbished battery packs when the time comes, although at a high price due to low volume, perhaps $30,000.

    If we can get 100,000 miles on a $30,000 battery pack, and nothing else significant wears out, that's only $0.30 (plus a few pennies for the electricity) per mile, much less than the operating cost of a comparable gasoline sports car on which nearly everything will be worn out.

    In this scenario, essentially the same as the RAV4-EV, buying a Roadster now is a huge win. If the Roadster doesn't have some defect waiting to emerge, current owners will hold onto them as tightly as RAV4-EV owners do. This would make the second hand market tiny and the value goes way up.

    I'm not saying I think this is the most likely outcome, but it is possible and is the balancing scenario to regretting buying one now instead of waiting for a cheaper used one.

    If this post compels you to buy a Roadster, tell them I sent you. I'll let you choose which of my dozen favorite charities will get the $500 bounty as a donation.
     
  15. Palpatine

    Palpatine Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2008
    Messages:
    1,357
    Location:
    Seattle
    Tom, I actually think that is the most plausible scenario. Tesla might very well halt Roadster production after the Model S comes out. If they are only selling 10-20 per month, does it make sense to continue?
     
  16. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    I could see them making them in batches. Take orders all year and make 200 at a time.
     
  17. Tdave

    Tdave Member

    Joined:
    May 16, 2008
    Messages:
    721
    Location:
    Columbia, MD
    I can't see them halting production of their flagship product. Doing batches a few times per year is one option. Or maybe replacing the CF body with fiberglass to lower the cost of the Roadster (how much would that save anyway?). That would also help retain the value of the CF cars as something special.
     
  18. raymond

    raymond Member

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2008
    Messages:
    345
    Location:
    The Netherlands
    I wondered about that trying to find out what drives the cost of a Roadster. From my point of view the cost should be comparable to that of a slightly enlarged Elise minus engine and transmission plus CF body, e-motor, ESS and PEM.

    I *think* the CF body and the ESS account for the biggest share, but I'm still short a few 10k's.
     
  19. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 18, 2006
    Messages:
    14,792
    Location:
    CA CA
    Actually, the more I think about it, making Roadsters should not be that much of a problem because the production line at Lotus is always going anyway. Right now all they do is change up parts as a Tesla comes along. No reason the could not continue that process in the future.
     
  20. Palpatine

    Palpatine Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2008
    Messages:
    1,357
    Location:
    Seattle
    The production line at the Lotus factory is currently dominated by Tesla Roadsters. Once the backlog clears out, the Lotus factory may have to scale down on their staff. The Lotus Elise is not selling much either lately.
     

Share This Page