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Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by Iz, Jun 2, 2012.

  1. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    #1 Iz, Jun 2, 2012
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2012
    Not only would GEN III include many of the lessons learned from Model S development, it would also include improvements made as a result of feedback after Model S hits the road in a few weeks.

    While GEN III is expected to have less bells & whistles than Model S/X, I would expect it to use the latest battery technology available ~ 2014. In order to appeal to the masses, the 30k price should offer a minimum 300 mile range in a smaller pack and with smaller price increments up to a 500+ mile pack.
     
  2. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    No way will you have 300 miles at 30k price point in 2014. 160-180 miles maybe.
     
  3. stevebalmmer

    stevebalmmer Member

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    The 30 k Modell must have a Range aboiut 350-400 miles.

    steve
     
  4. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    So in 3 years, the people who bought the 85 kWh will already be outdone but a $30,000 Tesla in terms of range? I highly doubt that. I understand technology moves forward and know there will be a cheaper, better Model S down the road with more range but not with the Gen III. I'm not saying there won't be a 300 mile Gen III option but it won't be the base $30,000 or so model. Even if they could, they wouldn't want to. You don't want the performance and range of your cheap model to bleed too far into your upper level models and poach sales. They will overlap some though.
     
  5. gjunky

    gjunky Waiting for the Model ☰

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    Thank you all for your thoughts and insights. I kind of expect a convertible S as well before the GEN III.

    As to the range, we have to remember that the $50K car didn't have a 300 miles range as stated either. I am sure the 30k car will be a stripped model (again) with certain limitations.

    The timing might work for a Model S lease before switching to the Gen III car
     
  6. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    While Telsa wasn't exactly clear in their marketing early on, they also never said the $50,000 base car would have a 300 mile range. People just read that into the statement which was partly Tesla's fault for not typing 'up to 300 miles'. I agree, the $30,000 or so car will be the base model with the smallest battery pack.
     
  7. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    How much physically smaller would the GenIII battery box be? 20%? 30%
    When did the Model S lock in battery specs? 2010?
    When does the GenIII lock in batter specs? 2013?

    Assuming only battery improvements (not motor or PEM) of the usual 8% per year of energy density per cell we could estimate what range he GenIII is capable of for three range models and possible pricing using the battery cost as the only variable.
     
  8. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    That GEN III will be targeted at a larger customer base that will also be more price conscious. Based on feedback from others, it appears a base 250-300 "real world" range at the $30k price point is what the greater aggregate of that customer base will be looking for. Nissan was rumored to be looking at a 200-mile range on the next Leaf. A Tesla rep mentioned that TM is aware of all the battery reasearch underway. Perhaps when one of these advancements proves out, it will be used.
     
  9. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    They could improve efficiency of the car. Making it 69.5 inches wide would reduce the CdA by 10%. Making the wheels smaller will reduce Cd and reduce drag from the tires. Obviously LRR tires will help too.
    A smaller car could get 20% more range out of existing batteries, making the 40kWh GenIII car get 192 miles of range if the Model S gets 160.
     
  10. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    Nobody is going to be able to make a $30,000 250 mile range EV in the next 4 years.
    It is a waste of time to focus on what the majority of customers think they need from their car. A 200,000 unit per year GenIII Tesla car will still only be selling to less than 1% of the car buying public.
    Tesla does not need to meet the unreasonble expectations of the majority of the car buying public.
     
  11. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    But there would be less batteries (cells) in a smaller box.
     
  12. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    I suspect that they already have a clay model, but we won't see anything for at least a year.

    In order to differentiate themselves in the market, it needs to have a range of at least 2X a Leaf. That said, I fully expect them to have different pack sizes available, and the $30k version might not be all that compelling. I would not be surprised if the 200+ mile version were $40k. That said, if they could bring out a $30k 200 mile car I think it would be an enormous success...
     
  13. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    If that 200 is real-world you are understating the potential sales.
     
  14. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    By "enormous success" I mean "world-changing".
     
  15. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    Assume the 40kWh Model S gets 130 miles EPA range ( real world ).
    Also assume that the current end consumer cost of the Model S battery is $20k for 40kWh and the rest of the car is $37k ( Total $57k )

    Now hope that Tesla can make the GenIII 20% more efficient, so 40kWh gets you 156 miles of real world range.
    Then hope they can build and sell the GenIII car minus battery for $22k, and a 40kWh battery for $15k - yielding $37k, which is $30k car after the tax credit - if it still exists.

    That sounds like a tall order to me. I hope they can do it.
    That car would have double the range of a Leaf, be better looking and more fun to drive - but I think to expect much more than that would be crazy.
     
  16. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    Personally I expect the $30k Tesla (hopefully it actually retails for $30k before credit, not $37k) to have a 30-40kWh battery pack. I think it'll depend on what happens with the Infiniti LE (which will be its direct competitor).

    I think it's a bit unrealistic to expect the $30k Tesla to have a much bigger battery than that. I expect you can option it up, but not for the base model to have that much range.
     
  17. Iz

    Iz EVs are here to stay

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    Agreed. If Tesla is selling that number of GEN III vehicles/year it should be excellent for the balance sheet.
     
  18. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Tesla has to make a profit. $30K base price seems way to low. I'd expect $37K to $45K before the (hopefully still around) $7500 tax break. And I hope Tesla keeps the luxury concept in that price point. BMW and Mercedes can have luxury smaller cars at that price point, so why not Tesla?
     
  19. stopcrazypp

    stopcrazypp Well-Known Member

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    If the tax credit was still around, I would be okay with that. But without the tax credit, I doubt they can reach the 100k annual target selling a car that starts with a base price of $37k-$45k. The 1 series and A3 starts at around $30k.

    We'll have to see how the Infiniti LE and the BMW i3 is priced.
     
  20. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    The LE just doesn't have the range to be a realistic contender. Leaf range is just not Tesla range. The Leaf is currently $35K. Would the LE somehow be more reasonable? I'll bet $42K which leaves everything wide open for Tesla to step in and kick @ss.

    Obama will win this election so the tax credit should make it to 2016. After that I'll bet it gets shot down by the new Republican administration.
     

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