Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

[Rifleman]

Looks like Gen3 will be delayed :crying:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/autoshow-tesla-profit-idUSL2N0AJ0GX20130114

I hope this is not true. It would really screw over my plans to buy a Gen III when my Volt lease is up. If it is true, I guess I will have to change my plan to be "save up even more money to buy a Model S when the Volt lease is up"

 

[vfx]

Tesla is also working on a third-generation vehicle that would cost around $30,000 to $35,000, Musk told reporters. The vehicle will be smaller than the Model S and roughly the size of BMW's 3-series sedan.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/autoshow-tesla-profit-idUSL2N0AJ0GX20130114


I assume that is our cost, not theirs...

 

[Grendal]

I hope this is not true. It would really screw over my plans to buy a Gen III when my Volt lease is up. If it is true, I guess I will have to change my plan to be "save up even more money to buy a Model S when the Volt lease is up"

With all the amazing reviews of the Model S, I've adjusted my attitude to "I'm buying a Tesla in 2015. If the Gen III is around I'm definitely getting it, if it is delayed then I'll get a Model S."

The target date is 2015 because when the new political administration comes in I'm expecting the tax rebate to go away and I want to take advantage of it before that happens.

 

[Rifleman]

With all the amazing reviews of the Model S, I've adjusted my attitude to "I'm buying a Tesla in 2015. If the Gen III is around I'm definitely getting it, if it is delayed then I'll get a Model S."

The target date is 2015 because when the new political administration comes in I'm expecting the tax rebate to go away and I want to take advantage of it before that happens.

If I can afford it, that will be my plan as well. The good news is, with 3 extra years of saving, I should be able to afford it (I was right on the edge this time around with a model S, and even had a reservation for a while before my repeated number crunching told me what I did not want to hear)

 

[dsm363]

If I can afford it, that will be my plan as well. The good news is, with 3 extra years of saving, I should be able to afford it (I was right on the edge this time around with a model S, and even had a reservation for a while before my repeated number crunching told me what I did not want to hear)

With the added advantage that in 2 years, the Model S should be more feature complete and a more refined product. Tough choice.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Looks like Gen3 will be delayed :crying:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/14/autoshow-tesla-profit-idUSL2N0AJ0GX20130114

At this point, profitability matters more. It'll hold up the stock price and keep their liabilities in check (as in paying back loans). Their R&D budget will be focused next on the Model X, so they don't have the cash to spend on Gen III unless they continue having unprofitable quarters (which is not Elon's plan).

 

[vfx]

Of course the longer we wait, the better the batteries will be.

 

[gregincal]

It's because I knew the Gen III would be delayed that I bought a Model S, despite it being a larger car than I would like. I assume when he says 30-35K that's the starting price. In other words the starting price will be 34,900 after federal rebate.

 

[JRP3]

Of course the longer we wait, the better the batteries will be.

Which may be the reason for the delay.

 

[thelastdeadmouse]

In an interview, Mr. von Holzhausen said the small car, which could be a volume leader for Tesla, is in the early design stages. “It’s still a doodle on a napkin,” he said. During the news conference, he said that the small car would appear in “three to four years.”

A Holding Pattern at Tesla - NYTimes.com

Its a shame, I would have hoped they were at least to the point where they'd have relatively solid design by now, perhaps around the clay model stage.

 

[keys]

I think it's a solid business decision. Last time I read, Tesla had >100 reservations a day, if that trend continues it shows that there is a very large high margin market. Make a few hunderd million dollars extra is only better. Sucks for us who can't afford a 70k car right now, but in the long run I'd rather have Tesla follow a slower growth path (still apple-ish nonetheless)

 

[JRP3]

I have a different interpretation of the Gen3 and X delays....

 

[AnOutsider]

I, too, expected it to be farther along than a doodle on a napkin. Guess it was high hopin'

 

[tdelta1000]

Just some speculation here but could the Furia concept usher in the styling of the Gen III? I think the styling is too far from what the Corolla has been all these years.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Actually if you look at their SEC filing it's not a surprise GEN III is delayed. It seems they only have the budget to work on developing one vehicle seriously at a time. Most of the previous quarters' engineering has been focused on various versions of Model S (different battery pack sizes and the European versions) and the Model X for the design team. I don't expect a very serious effort on Gen III until the Model X is much closer to being finalized (design has to be pretty much locked in first.

 

[Enadler]

It's because I knew the Gen III would be delayed that I bought a Model S, despite it being a larger car than I would like. I assume when he says 30-35K that's the starting price. In other words the starting price will be 34,900 after federal rebate.

Federal rebate is only in good for the first 200,000 vehicles Tesla sells. I am confident that the Model S and X will exceed that by the time the Gen III appears in 2015-6. :smile:

 

[constraint]

Little concerned about that NY Times article that said the Gen III would "appear" in 3-4 years. To me that means alpha prototype stage that gets produced 2 years after that. I think its safe to say that if Gen III is not produced in numbers until close to 2020 that the $7500 rebate will have been a for gone conclusion.

 

[Norbert]

I think outside of election times, all parties have been in favor of the $7.5k tax credit. They might even extend it beyond 200k, if the promise of EV technology is substantiated, and batteries start going down in price, just not enough yet. However by 2020, battery prices should be low enough to make the tax credit less important.

If the Gen III comes out in 4 years, Tesla would have to sell 50k vehicles per year, each year, to reach 20k. If they were to really sell that many, the situation will also look different by then.

 

[Lokolo]

I am both happy and disappointed about this.

Happy in that it gives me more time to prepare myself (money, charging) and that technology should be greater (cost, battery size).

However, disappointed that this could lower their market share for affordable electric vehicles (gives time for competitors to get a foot in the door).

 

[rsquared99]

I have a different interpretation of the Gen3 and X delays....

JRP3 - why would you leave us hanging?