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Gen III Range & Pricing Speculation

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Leaf range is just not Tesla range. The Leaf is currently $35K.
I'm seeing a big price drop on the Leaf very soon (when the Tennessee factory is online). So the LE may slot in at the $35k range (i3 pricing is a wild card). And no matter how competitors are priced, I'm not seeing 100k annual volume at $40k+ base price. And at lower volume, the car isn't economical to produce (might as well stick to Model S variants).
 
A republican administration started the tax credit. Really!

But they are using it as a talking point for wasteful spending. I can't say it will be the same in 2016 but it is their usual stance. You can bet that Democrats will praise Tesla as a huge success when its loans are paid back and there are tens of thousands cars on the road. Which will then make Tesla a target to shoot at.

Not judging, but politics go that way.
 
But they are using it as a talking point for wasteful spending. I can't say it will be the same in 2016 but it is their usual stance. You can bet that Democrats will praise Tesla as a huge success when its loans are paid back and there are tens of thousands cars on the road. Which will then make Tesla a target to shoot at.

Not judging, but politics go that way.

And I don't disagree. You might sic that dog on me!! :)
 
Once the election is over, whichever party wins will play up any successes as theirs and any failures as the previous administration's. Just like they've always done. Neither facts nor what they said prior to the election enter into it.
 
In 3 years time, I would be surprised if the Nissan Leaf didn't offer close to 200 miles of all electric range at roughly the $30K price point. Remember that while battery tech has only advanced 6-8% per year, this was in a market that was not nearly as hot or explosive as it is today. Nearly all the car manufacturers have a hybrid/electric program. Similarly, there are many more dollars chasing EV tech. So I would expect the rate of innovation to accelerate over the next few years. For GenIII to be competitive in 3 years time, it would need to offer at least 200 miles of range in a sportier, luxurious package. You guys may have noticed that the next model year of the Volt increases MPGe rating by 5%, also improves all electric range by 9% and also has notable reductions in emissions (ala the 'California package'). The field of efficient auto alternatives will get more intense over the next few years.

Remember, not only battery tech affects EV range. Cd and weight are huge factors as well. I've always thought it was silly that you need 4,000-5,000 pounds of stuff to move 200-600 lbs of people matter (I say this knowing full well that my car weighs 5,300lbs). If Tesla can continue to shrink and weight-reduce components like the motor/inverter assemblies, reduce chasis and infotainment weight, etc, then that will also drastically improve range. If the Model S went from 4,000lbs to 3,000lbs, that would translate into 25-33% increase in range alone!
 
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In 3 years time, I would be surprised if the Nissan Leaf didn't offer close to 200 miles of all electric range at roughly the $30K price point. Remember that while battery tech has only advanced 6-8% per year, this was in a market that was not nearly as hot or explosive as it is today. Nearly all the car manufacturers have a hybrid/electric program. Similarly, there are many more dollars chasing EV tech. So I would expect the rate of innovation to accelerate over the next few years. For GenIII to be competitive in 3 years time, it would need to offer at least 200 miles of range in a sportier, luxurious package. You guys may have noticed that the next model year of the Volt increases MPGe rating by 5%, also improves all electric range by 9% and also has notable reductions in emissions (ala the 'California package'). The field of efficient auto alternatives will get more intense over the next few years.

Remember, not only battery tech affects EV range. Cd and weight are huge factors as well. I've always thought it was silly that you need 4,000-5,000 pounds of stuff to move 200-600 lbs of people matter (I say this knowing full well that my car weighs 5,300lbs). If Tesla can continue to shrink and weight-reduce components like the motor/inverter assemblies, reduce chasis and infotainment weight, etc, then that will also drastically improve range. If the Model S went from 4,000lbs to 3,000lbs, that would translate into 25-33% increase in range alone!
 
In 3 years time, I would be surprised if the Nissan Leaf didn't offer close to 200 miles of all electric range at roughly the $30K price point.

I disagree with you about this. I think we'll see an improvement but no where near 175% improvement. I think 20% better than what they have now would make sense, which is 90 miles realistically. Maybe they'll hit their 100 miles they originally advertised. Could they get 200 miles if they wanted? Sure. But why would they? They probably don't see a problem with the range now. Their primary consideration for the Leaf is to make the price affordable to the masses. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep the pack as it is and just reduce the price of the car by $5K. For Nissan there is probably a lot of motivation to keep the shape of the pack exactly the same as it is now. Nissan is not Tesla and so what drives their company and marketing is very different than what Tesla is doing.
 
In 3 years time, I would be surprised if the Nissan Leaf didn't offer close to 200 miles of all electric range at roughly the $30K price point.

I disagree with you about this. I think we'll see an improvement but no where near 175% improvement. I think 20% better than what they have now would make sense, which is 90 miles realistically. Maybe they'll hit their 100 miles they originally advertised. Could they get 200 miles if they wanted? Sure. But why would they? They probably don't see a problem with the range now. Their primary consideration for the Leaf is to make the price affordable to the masses. I wouldn't be surprised if they keep the pack as it is and just reduce the price of the car by $5K. For Nissan there is probably a lot of motivation to keep the shape of the pack exactly the same as it is now. Nissan is not Tesla and so what drives their company and marketing is very different than what Tesla is doing.
 
I hope we don't see a prototype before they are sure to be able to deliver a GenIII with 300 miles of range at a $ 30 000 price. If it's going to be a massmarket car, well the customers won't accept less.

300 miles at 30k? Model S barely does that now. Unless battery prices fall drastically, I can see a smaller pack in the entry model and then a buildup from there. 200ish miles to start maybe.
 
I hope we don't see a prototype before they are sure to be able to deliver a GenIII with 300 miles of range at a $ 30 000 price. If it's going to be a massmarket car, well the customers won't accept less.

300 miles at 30k? Model S barely does that now. Unless battery prices fall drastically, I can see a smaller pack in the entry model and then a buildup from there. 200ish miles to start maybe.
 
I hope we don't see a prototype before they are sure to be able to deliver a GenIII with 300 miles of range at a $ 30 000 price. If it's going to be a massmarket car, well the customers won't accept less.

A true 100 miles EPA (probably about 150 miles @ 55mph) is something most consumers will accept at $30k. I'm willing to bet Gen III will be around that, and definitely not 300 miles (keep in mind the base Model S is 160 miles).
 
I hope we don't see a prototype before they are sure to be able to deliver a GenIII with 300 miles of range at a $ 30 000 price. If it's going to be a massmarket car, well the customers won't accept less.

A true 100 miles EPA (probably about 150 miles @ 55mph) is something most consumers will accept at $30k. I'm willing to bet Gen III will be around that, and definitely not 300 miles (keep in mind the base Model S is 160 miles).
 
I hope we don't see a prototype before they are sure to be able to deliver a GenIII with 300 miles of range at a $ 30 000 price. If it's going to be a massmarket car, well the customers won't accept less.

Trying to set impossible, unrealistic goals? Yeesh. If Tesla were able to do that, then I'd buy every share of stock I possibly could get my hands on. Those are game changing numbers. Realistically I expect 120-150 miles for the starting pack and upgrades, for a price, just like the Model S. The S has 160-230-300 mile packs and so I'd like to see something like 130-200-275 mile packs for the Gen III. The base pack will get you above 100 real world miles which is more than anyone else is offering.

What you want will happen, but not anytime (unless there is some kind of battery breakthrough) soon. And when it does happen I hope and expect that Tesla is the car company to do it.