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Don't underestimate the time and cost it takes to go from the lab bench to a production-scale, thoroughly tested automotive-grade battery pack. My belief is that the timing of the GenIII will be linked to these new batteries, and therefore all Model S and Model X delivered before the GenIII roll-out will have the current battery chemistry, or some (very) close variant.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I made a similar argument in the battery tech thread for Model X (that all Model S variants before Gen III will likely not use new batteries) :
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...oduction/page2?p=112058&viewfull=1#post112058
My battery predictions are here:
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...nto-production?p=111988&viewfull=1#post111988
It looks like Gen III will use either the 3400mah or 4000mah cells (or something similar). Panasonic said they will make the 3400mah at end of FY2012 (ending March 2012), but I guess they are behind schedule, since they haven't announced production start.
I present the following analysis for your consideration:
When will EVs be mainstream? | High Speed Charging
By targeting a market segment of vehicles with mpg between 25 and 30 ( BMW 3 series ) , Tesla can make a vehicle of equivalent quality that achieves 160 miles range at a competitive price - even if their drivetrain cost ( excluding battery ) are the same as the ICE car they compete with.
And they can do this in the late 2015 to 2016 timeframe.
Note that the "competitive price" does not include any government incentive - and is over a ridiculously short timescale - where the EV is paid for after 5 years and then provides essentially free operation ( until the battery needs replacement ) while the ICE becomes more and more expensive to operate.
Anything Tesla can do to decrease the cost of their drivetrain versus the ICE could be spent on more battery - achieving better range. By targeting a "mid-luxury" segment like the BMW 3 series, that gives them a lot of room to do this.
The Model S requires you to consider longer ( 8-10 year ) timescales to compete on price ( with cars that have lower mpg ).
Please let me know what you think.
When will EVs be mainstream? | High Speed Charging
By targeting a market segment of vehicles with mpg between 25 and 30 ( BMW 3 series ) , Tesla can make a vehicle of equivalent quality that achieves 160 miles range at a competitive price - even if their drivetrain cost ( excluding battery ) are the same as the ICE car they compete with.
And they can do this in the late 2015 to 2016 timeframe.
Note that the "competitive price" does not include any government incentive - and is over a ridiculously short timescale - where the EV is paid for after 5 years and then provides essentially free operation ( until the battery needs replacement ) while the ICE becomes more and more expensive to operate.
Anything Tesla can do to decrease the cost of their drivetrain versus the ICE could be spent on more battery - achieving better range. By targeting a "mid-luxury" segment like the BMW 3 series, that gives them a lot of room to do this.
The Model S requires you to consider longer ( 8-10 year ) timescales to compete on price ( with cars that have lower mpg ).
Please let me know what you think.
Norbert
TSLA will win
I'll say the obvious: The Model S' power train *is* the second generation. In general, Tesla is going to come up with new crazy stuff all the time. Battery prices and weight/volume are going to drop probably for more than the next 20 years.
Yes, and I don't think it will take long for ICE vehicles to be completely outclassed. A Gen4 EV in 2020 will be superior in every way.
WRT pricing speculation: I am very sure that the engineers had many bright ideas while working on Model S. How to simplify design. How to produce at lower cost. How to use less costly materials. How to get rid of complete components since anther one can be redesigned to take over its function.
But as deadlines approach, all ideas face an ultimate verdict: Very good, but not now!
So I think they already have lots of ideas in the drawer how to save several grand on the next iteration of Model S / skateboard platform car. They will try out some of them with Model X, further improve, then feed them into the first Gen III car.
But as deadlines approach, all ideas face an ultimate verdict: Very good, but not now!
So I think they already have lots of ideas in the drawer how to save several grand on the next iteration of Model S / skateboard platform car. They will try out some of them with Model X, further improve, then feed them into the first Gen III car.
Vger
Active Member
I would submit that absolute range will become less important a criterion as the charging infrastructure gets built out. More EVSE's = less range requirement. Opportunistic charging in places one spends even a half hour will keep SOC higher during a busy day.
The available charging rate is more important to overall time-efficiency on a longer trip than 20-50 miles more range. If the Gen III can use Superchargers, that will be a very big deal. If, by then, superchargers are less wearing on battery life, that will be a big deal.
Just coming at it a little differently...
The available charging rate is more important to overall time-efficiency on a longer trip than 20-50 miles more range. If the Gen III can use Superchargers, that will be a very big deal. If, by then, superchargers are less wearing on battery life, that will be a big deal.
Just coming at it a little differently...
gjunky
Trifecta: Solar and both cars are EVs
It better be able to use the supercharger network at full charging rate with the largest battery. I still can't believe they decided to cut the 40kWh Model S out from this network.
For me, a 350-400 mile range would be wonderful. If there is a 600 mile version (either standard or through temporary battery swap), that would be perfect as it allows me to drive to Las Vegas, LA and San Diego from Phoenix. I could even maintain a good average speed with that range.
After driving the Model S though, the most important thing in the GEN III for me will be the low center of gravity and the absolute silence in the chassis. Just wonderful driving that car.
I am just worried that Nissan or VW will catch up and finally make a car with a greater than 100 mile EPA rate. This wouldn't be a bad thing but would increase the competition for Tesla. The clock is ticking.
For me, a 350-400 mile range would be wonderful. If there is a 600 mile version (either standard or through temporary battery swap), that would be perfect as it allows me to drive to Las Vegas, LA and San Diego from Phoenix. I could even maintain a good average speed with that range.
After driving the Model S though, the most important thing in the GEN III for me will be the low center of gravity and the absolute silence in the chassis. Just wonderful driving that car.
I am just worried that Nissan or VW will catch up and finally make a car with a greater than 100 mile EPA rate. This wouldn't be a bad thing but would increase the competition for Tesla. The clock is ticking.
I don't believe this will happen until those companies are willing to let go of ICE cars. Right now they are marketing the electric car as a (poor) secondary choice for a commuter only car.
ryanjm
Tesla Podcast Host
Finally chiming in after reading through this thread. I'm now resigned to the fact that I can't QUITE afford Model S, so I'm now targeting BlueStar (with the wife being on board, which she isn't for the pricier S). My current car will be 10 years old then anyway. Thus, I've been thinking a lot about this car and have a few thoughts:
-They'll have to build it out of aluminum, right? Sure it's pricier but they almost have to for the lighter weight and its effect on range. They will also be very invested in aluminum with S and X, anyway.
-Assuming current battery chemistry, I suspect they'll offer ~40Kwh and ~60Kwh similar to S, which will take this car a bit further given its smaller size. Probably ~250-mile range out of the big battery. I don't think they'll offer an ~85Kwh, as I just don't see Tesla besting their own luxury model in range.
-As AnOutsider and others have said, I think they'll stick with the touchscreen interface, but likely a smaller display. I agree with 15". Their enter driver UI is built. They're not going to throw that away for mechanical knobs and buttons just to make S look more luxurious. They've spent years and a lots of money building a platform. They'll leverage it, and it will become a signature Tesla thing.
-Besides the car being smaller, I think BlueStar will lose a handful of luxury items that S has, like the panoramic roof, air suspension, retractable door handles, power rear liftgate, electrochromatic side mirrors, and the premium audio system likely won't be as good.
-I suspect there will be a Performance version, a la Lexus IS F or BMW M3. I'm hoping for 4.9 or 5.0 or so 0-60 on it. Quicker would be awesome, of course, but again, I don't think they'll get too close to the S Performance.
-17" (standard) and 19" (performance) on the wheels, IMO.
-Finally, the name: Just a guess here, obviously, but what about Model E ("everyone" -- could be useful in the marketing campaign)?
Who thinks they'll do a Signature series for this car? The only reason why I question it at all is because it's the mass-production, mass-market car, so maybe they won't do anything that special. But if they do, I hope to be on the Sig list.
Hopefully Franz makes this car as sexy as the S is.
-They'll have to build it out of aluminum, right? Sure it's pricier but they almost have to for the lighter weight and its effect on range. They will also be very invested in aluminum with S and X, anyway.
-Assuming current battery chemistry, I suspect they'll offer ~40Kwh and ~60Kwh similar to S, which will take this car a bit further given its smaller size. Probably ~250-mile range out of the big battery. I don't think they'll offer an ~85Kwh, as I just don't see Tesla besting their own luxury model in range.
-As AnOutsider and others have said, I think they'll stick with the touchscreen interface, but likely a smaller display. I agree with 15". Their enter driver UI is built. They're not going to throw that away for mechanical knobs and buttons just to make S look more luxurious. They've spent years and a lots of money building a platform. They'll leverage it, and it will become a signature Tesla thing.
-Besides the car being smaller, I think BlueStar will lose a handful of luxury items that S has, like the panoramic roof, air suspension, retractable door handles, power rear liftgate, electrochromatic side mirrors, and the premium audio system likely won't be as good.
-I suspect there will be a Performance version, a la Lexus IS F or BMW M3. I'm hoping for 4.9 or 5.0 or so 0-60 on it. Quicker would be awesome, of course, but again, I don't think they'll get too close to the S Performance.
-17" (standard) and 19" (performance) on the wheels, IMO.
-Finally, the name: Just a guess here, obviously, but what about Model E ("everyone" -- could be useful in the marketing campaign)?
Who thinks they'll do a Signature series for this car? The only reason why I question it at all is because it's the mass-production, mass-market car, so maybe they won't do anything that special. But if they do, I hope to be on the Sig list.
Hopefully Franz makes this car as sexy as the S is.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Don't remember where I read it, but I think the Gen III will be mostly steel to save money. There might be various versions (like the next gen Roadster if it is built on the same platform) that use more aluminum though.
I think "Model T" would be the most obvious since it will be a "mass market" car (like Ford's version). We have R (Roadster/Gen I), S (Model S/Gen II), T (Model T/Gen III). When the "Model S" name was announced, I think most people guessed Tesla would be heading in this naming direction.
I don't believe there is much sense to Tesla switching to steel from aluminium because they have put a lot of work into perfecting the aluminium construction, they already have a source of aluminium (which should become cheaper as they purchase more) and they are already set up to make aluminium bodies. Going with steel would mean a whole separate development cycle and would make the car no better than the other EVs out there.
ryanjm
Tesla Podcast Host
That was certainly the first thing I thought of too, but I figured that, given its historical significance, Ford must still have that one on lockdown. And sure enough, it looks like they do.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Ford had a Model R and Model S too, but Tesla was able to get the Model S name. They might be able to work something out for the Model T.
It looks like Ford had to continue to extend it every 6 months because of they haven't been able to provide a statement of use and the current filing was started at the end of 2009 (probably in response to Tesla filing for Model S in early 2009). If Ford can't provide a statement of use within 36 months of the initial notice of allowance in 2009 (basically they must prove they currently make a car named "Model T" by early 2013), then Tesla has a chance of taking that trademark.
http://teas.uspto.gov/teas/eTEASpageB2.htm
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youlikeadajuice
P 9130
I actually was wondering if they would offer the Signature Series for Bluestar the other day. It got me to thinking that it would probably put the price up into low to mid range Model S territory, given the mark up of the S sigs. I think I'd much rather have a regular S than a Bluestar sig
Although, it would be pretty cool to have a "signature" anything! This is all without even knowing what Bluestar will really even be!
ryanjm
Tesla Podcast Host
I actually was wondering if they would offer the Signature Series for Bluestar the other day. It got me to thinking that it would probably put the price up into low to mid range Model S territory, given the mark up of the S sigs. I think I'd much rather have a regular S than a Bluestar sig
I completely agree with you on the price. But for me a fully-loaded, 250-mile range Performance/Sig BlueStar is more appealing than a bare-bones, 160-mile range Model S for the same price.
youlikeadajuice
P 9130
I completely get that, I just don't think I can wait til 2015! Your patience exceeds mine! (and I'm going for the 60Kwh)
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