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GEN III - When will we see the first prototype

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by gjunky, Jun 1, 2012.

  1. gjunky

    gjunky Waiting for the Model ☰

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    Now that the Model S deliveries are around the corner and the Model X has been shown at different places my question is: When will the first prototype of the GEN III car be shown?

    I know there have been some prior discussion on the priorities of not only the next car after the Model X but also about the "$30K" car. I have heard rumors about it possibly being shown at the end of this (2012) year and also that we might not see one until 2015 (that might have been an actual delivery estimate).

    So: Has anyone seen any more information / rumors about this?
    Any details from statements Elon has made in interviews?
     
  2. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    The Model X was shown shortly before the Model S production started. I would expect Bluestar to be shown shortly before the Model X production. Tesla has said they want to introduce a new car every year. (A new Roadster is rumoured to be after the Bluestar). I don't see there being anything more than vague rumours until the unveiling--whenever that happens.
     
  3. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    I posted this article before: Tesla 2016 Roadster - Tesla to build another sportscar | GoAuto

    In it, it's stated:
    So, imagine this time next year. About 6 months before the X goes into production, just as the X was shown about 6 months prior to the S.
     
  4. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Actually, the original, but not officially stated, rumor was that the new roadster would come after the various Model S platform cars. It was at the Model X rollout that Elon mentioned that the Mass Market car on the Gen III platform was going to be the next car. He also mentioned a tentative date of 2015 for production. With all that in mind, I'd guess/predict that the legendary $30K/Mass Market/BlueStar prototype will be seen somewhere between late 2013 to mid 2014.

    I'd also guess, and would not be surprised, to see one more variation on the Model S platform before the Mass Market car that comes out in 2014. That would keep the "one new design per year" promise while not compromising the BlueStar timetable. I also wouldn't be surprised by an updated Model S in 2014 since there were lots of updates to the Roadster in its life.

    All these predictions are based on the fact that there are no disasters that create delays.
     
  5. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Well, model S is late June 2012, model x is likely December 2013 (18 months). If we imagine even another 12-13 months for the next model after x, that actually pretty much puts us in 2015. I imagine they promised nominal X deliveries in 2013 because 2014 sounded so far away, but even they say significant deliveries are 2014.
     
  6. Grendal

    Grendal Active Member

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    Considering how much you've participated here, you probably have a really good feel for what will happen. It just occured to me that it wouldn't be too costly for a third S platform design. It would have to be a popular style to even bother to add to the Tesla stable of vehicles. A Model S convertible is the only thing that comes to mind that would be worth doing prior to the Mass Market car. Though I could easily see a Model S 1.5/2.0 counting as the 2014 car.
     
  7. VolkerP

    VolkerP EU Model S P-37

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    I think the time span between Model S and X is much less than between X and Gen III. Because that's a new platform. They really start over from scratch, putting in everything they learned during development of Model S. Plus there is the goal to deviate a bit more from customers' expectations on what a "car" must look like and really explore the freedom that an electric drive train brings to vehicle design.
    A prototype of that platform might be shown quite early because they must fixate the cornerstones of their design way ahead of production.
    So let's say we gonna have
    • design sketches right now (that Tesla won't show us)
    • a clay model late in 2012
    • a design prototype mid of 2013 (like Model S pre-alpha prototype in 2009) shown to the public
    • driving prototypes for testing in 2014 (alpha and beta)
    • production in 2015
     
  8. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Haha, don't mistake too much time spent here for some super insight, I'm just guessing. I could see a convertible coming out, but they would have to be working on it now, no? I would imagine something would have leaked by now.

    I wonder if they're beyond the sketches phase? I mean, we didn't hear about x until this time last year I think... At which point Elon said "it's ready" (meaning the design). I guess from there til December (first showing) they were perfecting the prototype?

    Why must it? The only other EV in that segment right now has 73 miles, and I can't see it jumping that drastically in 2 years. Its a smaller car, and battery tech will be more advanced by then, but it's also a BUDGET car, so they won't exactly be shoving a crapload of batteries into a 30k car. I reckon they'll start with ~180-200 miles @ 30k and work their way up.
     
  9. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    #9 vfx, Jun 2, 2012
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2012
    Re: The possible between car after the X and before the GenIII.

    While an S based platform seem ripe for a convertible, I was told Elon is well aware of the market for fleet vehicles. A Tesla take on the Ford Transit Connect or Dodge Sprinter van could also be the mid X/GenIII offering. Not sexy but eminently practical.

    Since it's unglamorous maybe they announce both GenIII and the Model V at the same time. Very Elon to do something like that. He seems to like piggybacking publicity fervor.
     
  10. richkae

    richkae VIN587

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    I hope that Tesla does not waste their time and resources on a convertible, They should be working towards bigger markets - not smaller.
     
  11. NigelM

    NigelM Recovering Member

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    As *Outsider* pointed out way up thread, Tesla has said there won't be any news about the next car until about this time next year. From other pronouncements I believe they have also left up in the air whether a new Roadster or the Gen III $30k car will come next. It's possible (likely?) that we won't hear anything on the Gen III for another 2 years.
     
  12. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Didn't Elon also state that they realized they could do Gen 3 sooner than they had originally thought? Perhaps something did pan out
     
  13. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    I suspect that they already have a clay model, but we won't see anything for at least a year.

    In order to differentiate themselves in the market, it needs to have a range of at least 2X a Leaf. That said, I fully expect them to have different pack sizes available, and the $30k version might not be all that compelling. I would not be surprised if the 200+ mile version were $40k. That said, if they could bring out a $30k 200 mile car I think it would be an enormous success...
     
  14. jerry33

    jerry33 S85 - VIN:P05130 - 3/2/13

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    Are clay models even made anymore. I know they used to be years ago but don't most do the "clay" models in software now?
     
  15. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    The Model X had a clay model. It popped up in a few pictures and was at the reveal event in Hawthorne.
     
  16. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    As did the S.

    A coupla weeks after the X revel I had a guy approach me at a car show. He was on the X's clay team at the Design Center. He was toast. I asked if he was onto the next car but he was coy. Go the impression he would be doing things like the center consoul and parts like dash of the X. (but I just imagined that part)
     
  17. Jaff

    Jaff Active Member

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    Wasn't the clay model of the Roadster at Menlo Park?

    I seem to remember seeing it when we visited the MP HQ at the October Model S event...

     
  18. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    Don't know where it lived but it was covered with silver and later destroyed.

    All Teslas have been clay.
     
  19. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Thanks TEGbot. From that thread, here's a larger shot:

    View attachment 4058

    I believe that video was on vimeo about this time last year, so if we saw Gen 3 this time next year, that would be at least 2 years after they began work on it. I'm not sure how that lines up with previous models.
     

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