GEN III - When will we see the first prototype

[MarkR]

My fear is that Gen3 will be delayed by a year or so, but the prototype will be out as promised next Jan-Feb. That will give the competition LOTS of time to copy the styling with the result being that the Gen3 will look like many other cars near the time that it's first delivered. Does anybody think that the Model S had an impact on styling when it appeared in March 2009?

My hope is that Franz doesn't hold back at all on styling and that it is delivered so quickly that Gen3 looks 10 years ahead of everyone else when mine is delivered.

 

[JRP3]

Does anybody think that the Model S had an impact on styling when it appeared in March 2009?

The S looked a lot like the Rapide, which was first shown in 2006: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aston_Martin_Rapide

 

[dsm363]

I don't think most people are willing to wait as long as Roadster, Model S or X owners so hope the gap from reveal to release isn't too long.

 

[ElSupreme]

I don't think most people are willing to wait as long as Roadster, Model S or X owners so hope the gap from reveal to release isn't too long.

Yes. I think that Tesla will be (or at least attempt to be) much better on actual dates of the Gen III. I expect a concept car reveal at NAIAS (Detroit) next January, them to tout the $35k (2012 dollars) price tag, superchargering, and some base ideal range (150-200 miles).

But after that I hope that officially (certainly there will be stories and leaks leading up to the release) don't offer anything publicly until about 6 months prior to production (assuming a few month wait list at release).

I think it is much more important to reduce the time to delivery with the Gen III. Lots of people are forced to buy cars when their current ones stop working. Like my wife's Civic. Lucky for me I was able to borrow my friends truck for 3 weeks. And could take my time replacing the car. But a lot of people will need wheels within the week if not month when buying a new car.

I would maybe hope for an expanded loaner program, where you could possibly rent (at very reduced rate) a loaner when you are waiting for your Gen III.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My fear is that Gen3 will be delayed by a year or so, but the prototype will be out as promised next Jan-Feb. That will give the competition LOTS of time to copy the styling with the result being that the Gen3 will look like many other cars near the time that it's first delivered. Does anybody think that the Model S had an impact on styling when it appeared in March 2009?

I think it's unlikely that competitors like BMW or MB would copy Tesla's exterior design. For starters, these companies have their own design language and want to distinguish their brands, not be seen as followers. Second, styling and form factors have to take into account the mechanics underneath. Making a Tesla clone with an ICE or hybrid drivetrain may not be all that easy. Finally, copying is always a following act. If a competitor saw Tesla's concept and wanted to copy it, they'd have to start from scratch with their own models, engineering, and then tooling.

I'm not concerned.

 

[RobStark]

My fear is that Gen3 will be delayed by a year or so, but the prototype will be out as promised next Jan-Feb. That will give the competition LOTS of time to copy the styling with the result being that the Gen3 will look like many other cars near the time that it's first delivered.

Nissan's attempt(LEAF) at iconic styling has mostly been a dud. Tesla does not have iconic styling like the second gen Prius.

That was the point. It looks like a European Sports Luxury Car i.e. an ICE car.

I expect the same for Gen III. I don't expect anything truly unique that the competition will bother copying.

- - - Updated - - -

I think it's unlikely that competitors like BMW or MB would copy Tesla's exterior design. For starters, these companies have their own design language and want to distinguish their brands, not be seen as followers. Second, styling and form factors have to take into account the mechanics underneath. Making a Tesla clone with an ICE or hybrid drivetrain may not be all that easy. Finally, copying is always a following act. If a competitor saw Tesla's concept and wanted to copy it, they'd have to start from scratch with their own models, engineering, and then tooling.

I'm not concerned.

Competitors can copy the styling of Tesla with an ICE engine but the result will be more like a Fisker.

It will have a severely cramped interior because it needs to take room from the cabin to accommodate the engine, transmission, and transaxle.

 

[JRP3]

Tesla has said they were fairly conservative with the S styling and that they intend to push the envelope more with the G3. To get the type of efficiency I'm hoping for, to keep pack size/cost down, I think they'll need to have a very low cd, which will probably mean a bit more radical styling.

 

[TEG]

...I expect the same for Gen III. I don't expect anything truly unique that the competition will bother copying...

Franz is a top designer. He didn't leave the safety of a large manufacturer to risk things at Tesla just to make more of the same.
He has said that the packaging flexibility of an all electric car means there is more design freedom available.
I think he wants to do something special for Gen 3.
Model S was constrained by a "work in progress" design leftover from Henrik.
Model X has so much Model S DNA that it couldn't be too much of a departure.
I think Gen 3 will be something very different from the typical car look.
But with that said, he said Gen 3 will have some of the "Tesla Design Language" seen in Model S...

 

[RobStark]

Franz is a top designer. He didn't leave the safety of a large manufacturer to risk things at Tesla just to make more of the same.
He has said that the packaging flexibility of an all electric car means there is more design freedom available.
I think he wants to do something special for Gen 3.
Model S was constrained by a "work in progress" design leftover from Henrik.
Model X has so much Model S DNA that it couldn't be too much of a departure.
I think Gen 3 will be something very different from the typical car look.
But with that said, he said Gen 3 will have some of the "Tesla Design Language" seen in Model S...

Franz may have come to do bold design or help Elon electrify the auto industry.

As Elon has stated before regular people did not forgo BEVs for lack of styling but lack of functionality.

Elon is the Boss. I don't think Elon is betting the future of Tesla on people accepting some wacky look-at-me-ev styling.

He will bet the company's future on its engineering and manufacturing prowess.

Leave bold styling for future niche vehicles. And if successful bring that design language to the rest of the line.

BTW Tesla platform is skateboard. You can put anything you want on it. Again with Model X they chose something conservative.

 

[JRP3]

As Elon has stated before regular people did not forgo BEVs for lack of styling but lack of functionality.

Actually Elon has stated on a number of occasions that previous EV's suffered from a lack of styling as well, i.e. they were odd looking golf carts. G3 needs to compete with a BMW 3 series three years in the future, I'd think it will need some striking styling cues, not wacky look-at-me-ev styling.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

Regarding G3 styling, I hope Franz does something about the nose cone. It's a so-so element of the S and the X proto too.

 

[Tasdevil]

Regarding G3 styling, I hope Franz does something about the nose cone. It's a so-so element of the S and the X proto too.

+1
All the gen3 mock ups I've seen still haven't nailed the nose and I think that's because they are converted modelS noses.

 

[JRP3]

A version of the Saleen nose could work.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I am not sure I agree with the logic that because X is late, Gen3 will be pushed out. Granted, I have never designed a vehicle before, but I do not think Tesla has 1 set of engineers who do everything and are 100% tied up with the product from the first draft to production.

The X may have had some design tweaks since the Beta, but most likely only minor ones due to air tunnel testing, ergonomics and such. However most of the time spent since the reveal was surely on mechanics, streamlining things for cheaper and quicker manufacturing, fixing things after aging/durability tests (like door sealing as they mentioned), etc.

That doesn't mean that the people working on the exterior and interior design could not have started working on Gen3 months ago - for all we know it may already be "in clay" or very close to that if they realy want to show a prototype early next year.

As they are now gearing up for X production, again, more of those mechanical engineers can start working on Gen3's details.

The only real threat to the 2017 release of Gen3 in my eyes is Gigafactory issues. If they get that right, we should not have a problem - even if that 2017 date is late Q4.

 

[JRP3]

Each Tesla vehicle has been late, so the odds are....

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

One thing I got from the horse's mouth, so to speak, is that the core design team in Hawthorne and the core software/firmware/battery engineering teams in Palo Alto are still quite small. We are talking at best a few hundred engineers, mostly relatively recent hires. The real core longtimers are only a handful.

The large increases in the Tesla workforce overall in the past couple of years are mostly owing to employment at the factory, stores and service centers.

Given this, the delays in firmware updates and accessory releases let alone entire new cars and platforms are very understandable.

I'm not holding my breath for Gen 3 till atleast mid-2018.

 

[James Anders]

And consider that it's likely that most of the new engineering of the Model X is in the body structure and interior. The bulk of the chassis and drivetrain engineering is done since it's largely Model S based. With the exception of the front motor of course. The Gen III will require all new engineering for pretty much everything, so I bet the drivetrain and chassis engineers have been hard at work on the new model for some time now.

 

[stopcrazypp]

One thing I got from the horse's mouth, so to speak, is that the core design team in Hawthorne and the core software/firmware/battery engineering teams in Palo Alto are still quite small. We are talking at best a few hundred engineers, mostly relatively recent hires. The real core longtimers are only a handful.

The coincides with my impression too. All the Tesla quarterly reports imply that their development team can pretty much focus only on one project at once (at most two if the other one is smaller). However, given the massive undertaking Gen III would be I don't see how the team can focus on both Model X and Gen III.

I do agree with mrdoubleb that perhaps the exterior/interior design team would be working on styling already, but to get near a final product they would still input from engineering (which at this point has their hands tied with the international versions of the Model S and also the Model X).

 

[Ocelot]

Regarding G3 styling, I hope Franz does something about the nose cone. It's a so-so element of the S and the X proto too.

Agreed.

 

[Grendal]

I am not sure I agree with the logic that because X is late, Gen3 will be pushed out. Granted, I have never designed a vehicle before, but I do not think Tesla has 1 set of engineers who do everything and are 100% tied up with the product from the first draft to production.

The X may have had some design tweaks since the Beta, but most likely only minor ones due to air tunnel testing, ergonomics and such. However most of the time spent since the reveal was surely on mechanics, streamlining things for cheaper and quicker manufacturing, fixing things after aging/durability tests (like door sealing as they mentioned), etc.

That doesn't mean that the people working on the exterior and interior design could not have started working on Gen3 months ago - for all we know it may already be "in clay" or very close to that if they realy want to show a prototype early next year.

As they are now gearing up for X production, again, more of those mechanical engineers can start working on Gen3's details.

The only real threat to the 2017 release of Gen3 in my eyes is Gigafactory issues. If they get that right, we should not have a problem - even if that 2017 date is late Q4.

The design team is probably working on the Gen 3 now. All the design work for the Model X is likely done. Now it is fine tuning with engineers to make sure everything works properly and is functional for what they and customers want it to do. Tesla has to be close to having a Beta version of the X ready to test. That would free up the design team to focus on whatever designs Franz has handed them for the Gen III.