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Gen3 @ $35k without any government voodoo

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by brianman, Aug 7, 2013.

  1. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Subject from the Conf Call.

    Discuss?
     
  2. Johan

    Johan Took a TSLA bear test. Came back negative.

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    Great target! No doubt in my mind they will do it. Adjust for inflation though. 2017? People will be lining up for these. Even with a lot of production capacity build out they will be production constrained for quite some time.
     
  3. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    Old news.
     
  4. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Um, no it's not. To my recollection this is the first time that [1] a number was stated and [2] "without incentives" was stated with it.

    Also note that he didn't mention anything about inflation this time.
     
  5. deonb

    deonb Active Member

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    He said it during the battery swap announcement as well as part of a Q/A, and I think even at the interview the day before.
     
  6. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Well, I'd assumed without incentives since a 60kWh BEV at 42.5k would still fly off the lot, um, assembly line and 200,000 wouldn't take long to reach.

    I'd still be crying tears of joy if they had to come in at $40k. Sustained significa t share of luxury market would be enough to know that it was unstoppable. Once the money in the luxury market wants PEV, all the barriers will suddenly melt away as landlords, HOAs, businesses and city governments decide that installing chargers is a really good idea.
     
  7. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    That reads to me as $35k base price, $40k with some common options like a Tech Package. At that price, Tesla will not be able to build enough of these to meet demand. This will be hotter than iPhone, both in the U.S. and internationally :eek::biggrin:
     
  8. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    I don't know, for the past 6 months whenever it was brought up, Elon would say it was going to be around $30,000. Then it start to go to 30-35 and now a definite 35,000 without credits. My wife and have no debt, except for the house, but we do have a 3 year old. That's like a $500-600 monthly payment. We both make over $45,000 a year. What about people who make less, even $35,000. I don't see how this is going to sell to the masses, people are not even buying a $25,000 EV right now. My reach for the Gen III is slowly moving away. I guess when I buy an EV it will have to be a LEAF or something like that.
     
  9. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Since it was always going to be a car in this price range, why does it sound like this was a shock to you?
     
  10. GeekGirls

    GeekGirls Kid in Candy Store

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    The only thing that matters for Tesla is hitting a price point that generates sufficient demand to saturate the manufacturing they'll be able to bring online. A true mass market vehicle would be pointless, because they won't be able to produce those kinds of volumes for quite some time. Ramping up an order of magnitude or so every generation is a much more realistic goal.
     
  11. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    I dont know...I guess because Elon was so enthusiastic about how low it was going to be and they just keep pushing the price up. $30,000 with some state credits is better than $35,000 with some state credits. It's mental game for people, like my wife, and I feel I will have to pass on getting a Tesla. Who knows though, its 3-4 years away, I was just kinda bummed.
     
  12. ggies07

    ggies07 Active Member

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    Yeah, makes sense. At least I'm invested in the comapny and made some money, thats the only part of Tesla I will own. Hahaha.
     
  13. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    #13 AnOutsider, Aug 7, 2013
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2013
    I believe it was 35 WITHOUT rebates? If so, that's about 27.5k after (current) federal rebate (then whatever your state has). Not arguing your ability to purchase, just not seeing how this announcement paints a worse picture than what was previously talked about.

    *edit* meant after rebates
     
  14. darthvdr

    darthvdr Member

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    Looks like this would be well under the i3 price range. Battle of the EV makers. Very exciting times
     
  15. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    I found it kind of interesting that they indicated that S+X will consume more than 200k units. Either that means the yearly projections are conservative, or Gen 3 is farther out than I was thinking.
     
  16. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    They did say "in a few years" or something like that as far as S+X using up the quota goes. So, I think they were trying to emphasize that Gen 3 will/should not use tax credits/rebates as a crutch at all to get to the $35k price point.

    Any credit at that point is a bonus; am sure folks will clamor to buy the Gen 3 before Tesla as a manufacturer hits the 200k vehicle mark.

    I may have misread the transcript but, didn't Elon hint at no lower than "half the number of cells (7,000?) in an 85 kWh pack" or some such when talking about Gen 3? So, cram in a ~45-50 kWh pack in a smaller, lighter car and get 200 miles of range out of it?! Nice!
     
  17. vfx

    vfx Well-Known Member

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    I always assumed a "$30,000.00 car" meant $39,999.00 in real world Tesla pricing. The Model S for years was an upcoming $50,000.00 car and when we finally saw pricing the base was $59K. That's now a big "was"

    Even if the are still some of the 200,000 cars sold left when the Bluegenlll delivers, those will be eaten up reeeeeal fast.
     
  18. brianman

    brianman Burrito Founder

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    Concur. But something about the tone gave me the impression that there's no wiggle room here. Prior to this hinting, I presumed the first thousands of Gen3 would qualify for the credit. Why it's interesting to me: potentially compelling aspect of getting a Sig Gen3 if they offer it.
     
  19. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    I can see myself hitting that page refresh button repeatedly on an overloaded teslamotors.com at midnight on a Spring night in 2015 desperately trying to get my Gen 3 reservation in ;)
     
  20. AnOutsider

    AnOutsider S532 # XS27

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    Just go to the reveal party and lock Bonnie in a closet.
     

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