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Cobos
S60 Owner since 2013 - sold, S85D owner since 2017
Heck yes! You make some great points. You aren't the only long term bull with concerns. Motley Fool usually gushes all over Tesla, but now has concerns Mod: link deleted, reported to have malware. --ggr.
Your constructive criticism might give some young investor pause about committing too much of their hard earned money on one speculative stock.
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Value, Thanks for your different perceptive.
It's tough in this echo chamber, folks just don't want "inconvenient truths" about an investment they dream will make them millionaires.
Drumheller
Member
VA: I don't think Tesla is in trouble. I think they're behind where they wanted to be, but they're still several steps / years ahead of any competition. As such, I'm not looking to sell my shares at this time.
As for this place being an echo chamber, I agree. I've said as much and gotten labeled a troll in the past, which kindof proves it. However, there are several members here that have extensive knowledge and insights far beyond my experience and background, so I keep coming back for those valuable posts.
When I first started reading your posts last year, I thought you might be a bear that was trolling the echo chamber. Your estimates seemed far out of reality, to me, and so I figured you were doing it intentionally to trap the bulls here and then laugh when the numbers didn't work out. I think now that you were overly enthusiastic and had the "pie in the sky" / "to the moon" sentiment that many people have early on before getting burned. Most of us have been there with our investment adventures at some point, and most of us learn to temper things after getting disappointed a time or two. I think your disappointment is stronger than most here because you had unrealistic expectations. I don't recall anyone else here thinking Tesla was going to produce 100,000 - 200,000 Model 3 in 2017. I didn't. I thought 20,000 would have been amazing, but even 5,000 would have been great. I am disappointed in where they are now, but they're still way ahead of everyone else. They also have a track record of delivering. Late, but it happens. So, I'm not concerned, nor do I think Musk should be removed for any reason.
That's my opinion. I'm not looking to offend, but to share my point of view.
As for this place being an echo chamber, I agree. I've said as much and gotten labeled a troll in the past, which kindof proves it. However, there are several members here that have extensive knowledge and insights far beyond my experience and background, so I keep coming back for those valuable posts.
When I first started reading your posts last year, I thought you might be a bear that was trolling the echo chamber. Your estimates seemed far out of reality, to me, and so I figured you were doing it intentionally to trap the bulls here and then laugh when the numbers didn't work out. I think now that you were overly enthusiastic and had the "pie in the sky" / "to the moon" sentiment that many people have early on before getting burned. Most of us have been there with our investment adventures at some point, and most of us learn to temper things after getting disappointed a time or two. I think your disappointment is stronger than most here because you had unrealistic expectations. I don't recall anyone else here thinking Tesla was going to produce 100,000 - 200,000 Model 3 in 2017. I didn't. I thought 20,000 would have been amazing, but even 5,000 would have been great. I am disappointed in where they are now, but they're still way ahead of everyone else. They also have a track record of delivering. Late, but it happens. So, I'm not concerned, nor do I think Musk should be removed for any reason.
That's my opinion. I'm not looking to offend, but to share my point of view.
ggr
Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!
I occasionally dream about TSLA making me millions. They're happy memory dreams.
okay, okay, VA just taught me about this a few hours ago. This post is what we call "sarcasm," and "X yes" is well aware 1) how repeatedly in these back and forths many of us have explicitly reassured VA and others that constructive criticism is appreciated and we hope that Tesla is reviewing what they can improve on from the 3 ramp experience, 2) not only has Tesla long ago made members here multi-million dollar returns, but, plenty of us here had reached million(s) in net worth long before investing in Tesla.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Did I read this article correctly? Tesla: 2018 Revenues Expected To Double, Stock Likely To Rebound And Proceed Higher - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha What happened to SA?
Edit: though I could not spell “million” back in ‘68 before going off to make $98 bucks a month and living out of a duffel bag ~ a genuine duffel bag, and it was all mine
Long time no see ~ but more than doubled what my Dad left me in 2013, thank you very much Shell Oil FYI ~ moved one for one into Tesla back then
Edit: though I could not spell “million” back in ‘68 before going off to make $98 bucks a month and living out of a duffel bag ~ a genuine duffel bag, and it was all mine
Long time no see ~ but more than doubled what my Dad left me in 2013, thank you very much Shell Oil FYI ~ moved one for one into Tesla back thenTesla - Amended Statement of Beneficial Ownership • r/teslamotors people are reporting that the document shows tencent controlling about 10% of tesla shares through several holdings. What is the risk/reward in that ?
Well, if the stock goes up they'll make a ton of money. If it goes down, they will not.
coolI was more thinking in terms of control over the company. There is probably a reason why they stayed just below 5% in both chunks of artificially separate ownership and then got a third to make it closer to 10% total. So risk/reward for us, not for tencent
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Esme Es Mejor
Member
I remember it well, well enough to know how thoroughly you’re misrepresenting it:
“So as a rough guess, I would say we would aim to produce 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of next year. That’s my expectation right now.”
Rough guess. Aim to produce.
I wish he would keep these estimates and timelines internal, since many people (ahem) don’t understand the caveats on those estimates. But he’s a nerd, so he nerds out.
If you want a cautious lawyer as your CEO, Tesla is the wrong investment for you. If you want an excited, optimistic, and brilliant nerd as your CEO, sit tight.
Edit: typo
I think the reporting is because the cumulative holding is now less than 5% total of the float, at 4.97%. That's how I read the filing, and perhaps others with more experience reading these filings can weigh in.
Does anyone know why there is no (at least I cant find) Tesla software developers (or AI researcher) on social media (twitter, facebook) except Andrej Karpathy ?
I can easily find Google Brain researchers or Facebook FAIR researchers on facebook or twitter. But didn't find any Tesla software developer.
I can easily find Google Brain researchers or Facebook FAIR researchers on facebook or twitter. But didn't find any Tesla software developer.
Business Insider just did a series of interviews with 4 Tesla employees. Nothing major here, but I thought their perspectives made for worthwhile reading.
Cool Jobs at Tesla - Business Insider
Cool Jobs at Tesla - Business Insider
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
And in fact most of us "echo chamber" bulls were saying VA's estimates were completely unrealistic, which is rather in contrast to the "echo chamber" narrative.
Jonathan Hewitt
Active Member
He's still active on twitter. He had to take a break from TSLA but he's back in as of recently!
bdy0627
Active Member
Great post. VA - I personally thought your timeline expectations were incredibly optimistic to the point of being a little absurd. Now it seems like you have flipped 180 and your viewpoint is overly harsh. There is nothing wrong with being upset, frustrated, and critical of Tesla's missed guidance. I think in time you will come around more toward the middle, expecting Tesla's guidance to be off by quite a bit until it isn't. So far, it has. I was pretty disappointed and my expectations were way lower than yours.
graphix25
-=electronboy=-
In response to VA journey back to reality. I thought I would do a 2 month check on my personal journey. I like many including VA have been disappointed with the ramp of the model 3, solar roof and now have a increase level of concern. While it is easy to point fingers at Musk with his big mouth, wishful thinking and two timing with his true love SpaceX. The reality is volume manufacturing of complex products is difficult. Tesla has limited resources and in many ways is still a toddler when it comes to manufacturing. Competition is non existent. Overall my long term view stays consistent but less optimistic on time frames today then I was at the end of 2017.
Posted 12/27/2017
Things to look forward to in 2018:
2018 the year electric cars go mainstream -- check
Tesla Roadster in space or in pieces on Falcon Heavy in January -- the best advertisement event in history, check
New Factory Announcements in Q1 (US, Europe and China) -- announcement in Q2 for model y factory, check but delayed my one quarter
Coat to Coast autonomous drive in Q1 -- Q2/Q3, check but delayed, one surprise it will be synchronized with customer release
Introduction of Performance Model 3 -- the 6 month delay looks to push this into 2019, bummer
Scale production begins for Tesla Solar Roof -- summer production ramp, slow but in line with my expectations
Model 3 Ramp to 10,000 vehicles per week before we exit the year -- looks like a long shot for 2018
Predictions for 2018:
Tesla cash flow positive by end of year. -- looks to be on track, maybe
2018 Revenue approaching $25B, 100% year on year growth -- seems like a long shot, more comfortable with $20B
Model Y introduction event and pre-orders opens up in Q2 2018 courtesy of ValueAnalyst. A million pre-orders in the first week.
$3-5 Billion capital raise to accelerate new factories, towards end of year. -- I'm still very bullish on Model Y, 2019 launch, volume ramp 2020
Ground breaking of new Gigafactory east coast (Model 3/Y), Europe and China to come in 2019 -- on track, maybe
Interior Refresh for Model S Fall of 2018 which includes a next generation HUD. Model X will follow in early 2019. -- im starting to doubt they will refresh in 2018, looking more and more like a 2019 event
Stock price touches $600 a share on massive short squeeze, $100B market cap reached for the first time. -- long shot, looking good for 2019
2022 Revenue Forecast: (Bull Case -- posted in Nov 2017)
Model S/X 150k Units @100k = $15B -- will require product redesign, switch to 2170 and upgraded production line
Model 3/Y 1.5m Units @ 45k = $67B -- this is looking like a stretched goal, 1m units might be more realistic
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B -- easy, handbuilt roadsters, halo car and important for brand not revenue
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B -- hmm.. wishful thinking i suspect
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B -- consistent with Elon's view from Q4 call, likely means 1/2 the number in 2022.
Mobility Service <= $2B -- maybe
Energy <= $3B -- i think i might be too conservative on this one
Posted 12/27/2017
Things to look forward to in 2018:
2018 the year electric cars go mainstream -- check
Tesla Roadster in space or in pieces on Falcon Heavy in January -- the best advertisement event in history, check
New Factory Announcements in Q1 (US, Europe and China) -- announcement in Q2 for model y factory, check but delayed my one quarter
Coat to Coast autonomous drive in Q1 -- Q2/Q3, check but delayed, one surprise it will be synchronized with customer release
Introduction of Performance Model 3 -- the 6 month delay looks to push this into 2019, bummer
Scale production begins for Tesla Solar Roof -- summer production ramp, slow but in line with my expectations
Model 3 Ramp to 10,000 vehicles per week before we exit the year -- looks like a long shot for 2018
Predictions for 2018:
Tesla cash flow positive by end of year. -- looks to be on track, maybe
2018 Revenue approaching $25B, 100% year on year growth -- seems like a long shot, more comfortable with $20B
Model Y introduction event and pre-orders opens up in Q2 2018 courtesy of ValueAnalyst. A million pre-orders in the first week.
$3-5 Billion capital raise to accelerate new factories, towards end of year. -- I'm still very bullish on Model Y, 2019 launch, volume ramp 2020
Ground breaking of new Gigafactory east coast (Model 3/Y), Europe and China to come in 2019 -- on track, maybe
Interior Refresh for Model S Fall of 2018 which includes a next generation HUD. Model X will follow in early 2019. -- im starting to doubt they will refresh in 2018, looking more and more like a 2019 event
Stock price touches $600 a share on massive short squeeze, $100B market cap reached for the first time. -- long shot, looking good for 2019
2022 Revenue Forecast: (Bull Case -- posted in Nov 2017)
Model S/X 150k Units @100k = $15B -- will require product redesign, switch to 2170 and upgraded production line
Model 3/Y 1.5m Units @ 45k = $67B -- this is looking like a stretched goal, 1m units might be more realistic
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B -- easy, handbuilt roadsters, halo car and important for brand not revenue
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B -- hmm.. wishful thinking i suspect
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B -- consistent with Elon's view from Q4 call, likely means 1/2 the number in 2022.
Mobility Service <= $2B -- maybe
Energy <= $3B -- i think i might be too conservative on this one
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