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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Germany down too [-33% Jan&Feb '17->'18]*, and last time I checked Switzerland, numbers were in the cellar, though I have no comparison to last year there.

*source: Tesla: Fahrzeugzulassungen in Deutschland für Februar 2018 › Teslamag.de

True but I would not give that too much weight unless we have seen the QE. Demand looks very healthy and the low numbers are likely because the assignment for that region was low for whatever reason.

A quarter to quarter comparison like its been proposed from Tesla seems to make more sense from a data analytics perspective.

I expect the sales numbers for S and X will grow in 2018 beyond guidance if they figure out how to produce them. The 3 may be a "lead shoe" for S and X this year as all focus is on the new car.
 
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I just had a VIN assigned to my reservation. #700x. Its not overwhelmingly meaningful, but I am a smidgen disappointed as I was hoping to see a much higher number. In any case, its nice to see Tesla rolling them off the line.
Did you get silver with aero wheels? Indy3 worked out how Tesla batches their VINs, in VIN Assignment thread. It looks like 70xx was the 2nd newest batch of that config.
 
Demand looks very healthy and the low numbers are likely because the assignment for that region was low for whatever reason.

Thanks for chiming in. I'm sure demand is there - as you note, question is where's Tesla's output [going to be].

Given that about 100'000 S & X's are [per the last quarterly update] the current upper limit without investing more money in the factory, and Tesla has been shifting manpower to the 3.

The thing that would make my quarter is for the Grohmann line to get up to speed, and bountiful Model 3 production to follow. Everyone who's worked a bit in manufacturing knows that pesky gremlins have a way of showing up in the most unexpected ways.
 
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minor change in plans for The Boring Company

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 33m33 minutes ago Adjusting The Boring Company plan: all tunnels & Hyperloop will prioritize pedestrians & cyclists over cars

714 replies2,420 retweets14,660 likes

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk
Will still transport cars, but only after all personalized mass transit needs are met. It’s a matter of courtesy & fairness. If someone can’t afford a car, they should go first.

2:19 PM - 9 Mar 2018

Elon Musk on Twitter

Where is Neroden?
 
Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk 33m33 minutes ago ...all tunnels & Hyperloop will prioritize pedestrians & cyclists over cars

"Uhh...hey, Mac? Don't you think we oughta walk a bit faster? I think there's a Hyper-thingy coming up fast behind us."

"Naah, don't worry. We've got priority. We oughta reach LA late next week, if we keep walking at this pace."


On edit:
A "Helpful"? Really, EnzoXYZ? That's, ah......interesting....
 
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"Uhh...hey, Mac? Don't you think we oughta walk a bit faster? I think there's a Hyper-thingy coming up fast behind us."

"Naah, don't worry. We've got priority. We oughta reach LA late next week, if we keep walking at this pace."

In a Hyperloop, no one can hear you scream.
Or talk
Or much of anything
Air pressure is too low
But you can ride in a nice capsule with your bike.
 
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General sentiment regarding Tesla seems to be hitting a local low.

Detractors on Reddit are gleefully harping on every report of Model 3 quality issues, production line slowdowns, and departure of employees. Some Model 3 reservation holders have become completely disillusioned with Tesla's delay of the basic Model 3s, leading to some arguments: Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

As I expected, the Model 3 reservation pool is generally far less forgiving than the Model S/X reservation pool was where it comes to delays and quality issues. With only 3 months left in the quarter, things are going to get very interesting, for better or worse. I have not sold any of my meager holdings and do not intend to sell. The drama is interesting, but ultimately I believe investors are better served to manage their individual risk calmly and maintain focused on the long term.
 
General sentiment regarding Tesla seems to be hitting a local low.

Detractors on Reddit are gleefully harping on every report of Model 3 quality issues, production line slowdowns, and departure of employees. Some Model 3 reservation holders have become completely disillusioned with Tesla's delay of the basic Model 3s, leading to some arguments: Losing enthusiasm for Model 3

As I expected, the Model 3 reservation pool is generally far less forgiving than the Model S/X reservation pool was where it comes to delays and quality issues. With only 3 months left in the quarter, things are going to get very interesting, for better or worse. I have not sold any of my meager holdings and do not intend to sell. The drama is interesting, but ultimately I believe investors are better served to manage their individual risk calmly and maintain focused on the long term.

I wouldn’t trust Reddit as a primary source for public opinion. Let’s put it this way, if I was a bear or short Tesla, I would hit-up Seeking Alpha, yahoo message boards, Reddit, etc. and make as many negative comments as possible. This has been an ongoing pattern since Tesla went IPO...

Reviews of M3 has been very consistent and positive. As long as actual owners continue to post these positive reviews, there’s really no concern coming from investors like myself. If I believed in everything I read, I would have sold TSLA a long time ago. And oh, I bought more this morning:)
 
I wouldn’t trust Reddit as a primary source for public opinion. Let’s put it this way, if I was a bear or short Tesla, I would hit-up Seeking Alpha, yahoo message boards, Reddit, etc. and make as many negative comments as possible. This has been an ongoing pattern since Tesla went IPO...

Reviews of M3 has been very consistent and positive. As long as actual owners continue to post these positive reviews, there’s really no concern coming from investors like myself. If I believed in everything I read, I would have sold TSLA a long time ago. And oh, I bought more this morning:)

My sense is that this goes far beyond short sellers. There are more than a few people out there who just hate Tesla for disrupting what they perceive as the natural order of things. There are others who have predicted Tesla’s demise for years and are looking to avenge the humiliation of being proved wrong time and time again.

It’s gotten more toxic out there. As a contrarian indicator I tend to think this favors Tesla in the long run.
 
echo chamber stuff :)

Imagine if all you did from 2007 to today was track the results of the company and never listened to a single analyst or call and stayed away from social media. Would your impression be better or worse then now? Assuming access to the financials and stock price as well of course.

I honestly don't have a good answer.. just a random thought that jumped into my head. Are we in an echo chamber? Sure. But I think we are all mature adults that can objectively see through a lot of the hype. I think Elon is more like us and gets way ahead of what is really possible. I'm fine with it because I know how to adjust my expectations now.

My expectations are bad news short term and much better by years end. The model 3 is a heavy lift and it's taking everything they have, but once the ramp pains are over, we should see a flurry of new stuff and be outrageous timelines that we all have to adjust for. It's easy once you get it.
 
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I wouldn’t trust Reddit as a primary source for public opinion. Let’s put it this way, if I was a bear or short Tesla, I would hit-up Seeking Alpha, yahoo message boards, Reddit, etc. and make as many negative comments as possible. This has been an ongoing pattern since Tesla went IPO...

Reviews of M3 has been very consistent and positive. As long as actual owners continue to post these positive reviews, there’s really no concern coming from investors like myself. If I believed in everything I read, I would have sold TSLA a long time ago. And oh, I bought more this morning:)

Twitter makes Reddit look tame. There is a constant flow of vile stuff. Been that way for as long as can remember. Only when the stock is gaping up is it quiet.
 
My sense is that this goes far beyond short sellers. There are more than a few people out there who just hate Tesla for disrupting what they perceive as the natural order of things. There are others who have predicted Tesla’s demise for years and are looking to avenge the humiliation of being proved wrong time and time again.

It’s gotten more toxic out there. As a contrarian indicator I tend to think this favors Tesla in the long run.

You have a valid concern. However, companies have been disrupting one another since day one. Just look at amazon, they should be the most hated company in the world just based on how many toes they’ve stepped on. My view is that positive consumer experience will far surpass the amount of haters and eventually win out. The reason we’re seeing so much hate being spilled right now is because bears are making their last stance, and they know it. It’s an all out battle and I smell a lot of desperation coming from their camp. I have nothing but confidence right now. With each and everyday that passes, Tesla is inching closer to boxing those bears into a corner.
 
Some Model 3 reservation holders have become completely disillusioned with Tesla's delay of the basic Model 3s

I find this a false conclusion because the people who reserved after the reveal were not getting a car until 2019 at all. The people that signed up pre-reveal were on the old time line which I think Model 3 is current ahead of that schedule. The ones actually whining could probably never afford it anyway and now have an excuse to cancel or they are shorts.

Is Tesla Model 3 Actually On Original Schedule? | CleanTechnica
 
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