General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[SteveG3]

Buick Envision is made in China then imported into the US.

Cadillac CT6 PHEV is made in China then imported into the US.

Volvo S60 Inscription is made in China then imported into the US.

Volvo S90 is made in China then imported into the US.


2019 Ford Focus will be made in China then imported into US. This is not "niche" in any way but a mass market mainstream vehicle.

I see, perhaps 0.5% of this year’s US auto sales will be vehicles manufactured in China.

fwiw, what I had in mind were Chinese brand vehicles. That is where I see a potentially very large hole being open for Chinese branded cars which US consumers have barely bought (would make that 0.5% of US sales look big). The hole results from incumbent ICE makers reluctance to produce EVs.

 

[RobStark]

I see, perhaps 0.5% of this year’s US auto sales will be vehicles manufactured in China.

fwiw, what I had in mind were Chinese brand vehicles. That is where I see a potentially very large hole being open for Chinese branded cars which US consumers have barely bought (would make that 0.5% of US sales look big). The hole results from incumbent ICE makers reluctance to produce EVs.

Non-Chinese branded cars made in China exported to the US also contribute to the trade deficit.

American made cars exported to China also make up about 0.5% or less of the Chinese Market.

Ford exports a few Continentals and F Series Raptors.

GM a few Escalades. And then Tesla.

Chinese market does not like sports cars or convertibles so those premium vehicles don't sell very well.

 

[Zaxxon]

Owners are getting invites as well. Model 3 Owners club just posted their invite in Canada. Certainly a tax credit move.

Bunch of US non-owners also getting invites today. Looks to be exclusively CA so far from what I've seen. That could change as it seems to still be in progress right now. Some CA April-June estimated folks, too. (Mar-May is not yet complete) Must be batching more based on delivery center capacity than estimate dates?

 

[EinSV]

Bunch of US non-owners also getting invites today. Looks to be exclusively CA so far from what I've seen. That could change as it seems to still be in progress right now. Some CA April-June estimated folks, too. (Mar-May is not yet complete) Must be batching more based on delivery center capacity than estimate dates?

Some of the California folks are also reporting "instant VINs" when they configure so Tesla may be trying to top up EOQ deliveries -- we'll see.

 

[Reciprocity]

Bunch of US non-owners also getting invites today. Looks to be exclusively CA so far from what I've seen. That could change as it seems to still be in progress right now. Some CA April-June estimated folks, too. (Mar-May is not yet complete) Must be batching more based on delivery center capacity than estimate dates?

It actually makes no sense. You would want to invite today for farthest away. So Canada makes sense and so would east coast. Pretty much anything but west coast only. Now maybe we just have not seen enough data and the invites are nationwide. That would make a lot more sense then west coast only.

 

[ZeApelido]

The derivative (and therefore integral) of an exponential is an exponential

Yes, if its a true exponential.

To the right of the total production curve on Bloomberg site, is the weekly estimated rate. Not obviously exponential yet.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It actually makes no sense. You would want to invite today for farthest away. So Canada makes sense and so would east coast. Pretty much anything but west coast only. Now maybe we just have not seen enough data and the invites are nationwide. That would make a lot more sense then west coast only.

Maybe some grunts at Tesla got CA California and CA Canada confused, those were supposed to be Canada invites

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - this afternoon: Grossinger Auto Group sells 9 Illinois dealerships to Canadian company for $86 million

Illinois is not an anti-Tesla state. The Grossingers may have been smart to abandon an industry with an outdated retail business model that may not be sustainable.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Yes, if its a true exponential.

To the right of the total production curve on Bloomberg site, is the weekly estimated rate. Not obviously exponential yet.

Yes that would be true if you believe Bloomber's weekly estimated rate to be accurate. I think they're way off for March. I will wait ~ 10 days to find out from horse's mouth.

Also, if the production rate is increasing linearly vs time (t), then the cumulative production would be integral of that which would scale to t^2. It would be hard to tell that vs an exponential curve, I'll admit.

 

[SteveG3]

Non-Chinese branded cars made in China exported to the US also contribute to the trade deficit.

American made cars exported to China also make up about 0.5% or less of the Chinese Market.

Ford exports a few Continentals and F Series Raptors.

GM a few Escalades. And then Tesla.

Chinese market does not like sports cars or convertibles so those premium vehicles don't sell very well.

yes, they are at very low levels- there is a 25% tarriff on them. Chinese branded cars are near zero sales despite only one-tenth of the tariff (duty, import tax, whatever the correct term is).

 

[Mike Smith]

It seems pretty obvious Trump is trying to make a deal with China, and he's already made clear that he wants the issues raised by Tesla resolved.

 

[EV_enthu_jp]

Again not a single foreign automaker has found real success in Japan.

Ferrari is good selling here in Japan, about 10 percent of its global market.
Tesla is bad selling less than 1 percent of its global market.

BTW You are the one that mentioned up thread Tesla did not properly fill out some paperwork.

A small quantity import model ( less than 5000 per year, such as Tesla ) is exempted from some paperwork such as JC08 FE testing.

 

[Reciprocity]

It seems pretty obvious Trump is trying to make a deal with China, and he's already made clear that he wants the issues raised by Tesla resolved.

Actually, hopefully Trump does not know what he is going. Tesla wants to build hyperfactories in China and the only thing stopping them is the IP sharing partnership requirement. Trump wants cars built in the US and shipped to China with fair reciprocal tariffs (2.5% today). So hopefully they can resolve this quickly and before Trump figures it out. If he does, he will want to charge a tariff on cars made in China by US manufactures that are sold in China. I kid, I dont think that is a thing. Or is it?

 

[RobStark]

Ferrari is good selling here in Japan, about 10 percent of its global market.
Tesla is bad selling less than 1 percent of its global market.

A small quantity import model ( such as Tesla which is less than 5000 per year) is exempted from some paperwork such as JC08 FE testing.

So that is ~750 Ferraris imported into Japan in 2017.?

Ferrari is the definition of a boutique manufacture. Ferrari does not even qualify for niche status.

Ferrari will never have anywhere near 4% Japanese automotive market share like Toyota, Nissan,Honda and Subaru have here.

Heck not even 2% like Mazda.

BTW On Tesla being exempted from this or that. Only to 5k, not allowing for any significant Model 3 or Model Y sales.

Whenever there is an exemption to X there will surely be foiled by Y regulation. It is a never ending cycle of frustration for foreign automakers exporting into Japan.

 

[RobStark]

yes, they are at very low levels- there is a 25% tarriff on them. Chinese branded cars are near zero sales despite only one-tenth of the tariff (duty, import tax, whatever the correct term is).

So the implication is that the US government should allow Western automakers to import Chinese made vehicles with 2.5% tariff to get US consumers accustomed to buying Chinese made cars and do nothing about tariff and non tariff trade barriers American automakers face exporting into China until Chinese automakers have 10%,15% or 25% US market share?

 

[Reciprocity]

So the implication is that the US government should allow Western automakers to import Chinese made vehicles with 2.5% tariff to get US consumers accustomed to buying Chinese made cars and do nothing about tariff and non tariff trade barriers American automakers face exporting into China until Chinese automakers have 10%,15% or 25% US market share?

I think people have been giving China a pass because we believed that at some point, they would normalize some of their more shady behaviors and this would be forced by a growing middle class that would become more and more western. Instead, we have watched China grow into a super power while manipulating their currency, steeling the worlds IP and propping up our enemies like No. Korea. At some point, some one has to stand up to them and make them correct their bad behaviors. I know a lot of folks here do not like it, but what Trump is doing is not easy and takes actual leadership to stand up to things that should make everyone angry. Instead we just excuse it. That has to stop. No one is asking for unfair trade, only the same access to their markets as they get to ours and no dumping or currency manipulation. What we want is actual free markets.

 

[SteveG3]

So the implication is that the US government should allow Western automakers to import Chinese made vehicles with 2.5% tariff to get US consumers accustomed to buying Chinese made cars and do nothing about tariff and non tariff trade barriers American automakers face exporting into China until Chinese automakers have 10%,15% or 25% US market share?

lols, what? I’m not saying anything of the kind.

 

[ZsoZso]

Got my invite (Canadian owner, reserved the first day).

Same for me, received the email an hour ago.
So Canadian deliveries indeed start early!

ps: Mind you, only "first prodution (LR-RWD)" can be ordered now, for AWD it still states mid-2018 and for SR early 2019.
For LR-RWD it states "delivery in 4-8 weeks".

 

[Zaxxon]

Some of the California folks are also reporting "instant VINs" when they configure so Tesla may be trying to top up EOQ deliveries -- we'll see.

Now NC is also reporting multiple invites today. I haven't seen other US invites outside of CA and NC, but if we're getting both coasts I would think we're getting more than just NC.

 

[RobStark]

lols, what? I’m not saying anything of the kind.

So why the apologetics for Chinese trade practices?