General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[AlMc]

I would caution those that think we are at 4k+ model 3 production/week. Not saying it is not happening but IF you are basing a short term stock buy or particularly an option buy on this...be careful...use money (again particularly with short term options) that you look at as 'lotto money' that you can afford to lose.

<gets off soap box>

 

[Todd Burch]

You will not hurt my feelings if you don’t believe the info.

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

Sorry, I’m mobile. Don’t say who the other members who confirmed are, but how many other members messaged you? And how credible are those other members?

There were 3 different members and all of whom are active members. I think judging someone’s credibility on any forum is tough. What I will say is that they got nothing out of messaging me so I’m confident in what they conveyed to me.

 

[Todd Burch]

I’ll go with cautious optimism for $400, Alex.

Lbkmxp100d—do you have proof that this person works at Tesla?

 

[KLC13]

I’ll go with cautious optimism for $400, Alex.

Lbkmxp100d—do you have proof that this person works at Tesla?

@Lbkmxp100d this is some serious inside news getting revealed here (if it is true). My opinion is please do not share ANY more info about this friend of yours (like the days of his previous two shifts and where on the line he works). Lots of Tesla employees check these forums and this may not turn out good for the friend.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I can't say for sure that Lbk's source is not true, but the timelines make me cautious. Let's play this back.

Lbk's source says that last Wednesday, 5/9, the screen showed 4,129 over 7 days.

That would mean that on the day of the earnings call (5/2), Tesla would have been producing at a 4.1K rate since 4,126 is the one week historical numbers.

During the earnings call, this is what the transcript of Elon's conversation says.

Every target Elon gave on 5/2 was talking about a 3K rate, from module production to general assembly to the body shop. Seems to directly contradict Lbk's source, and in any contradiction I side with Elon.

Lbk, any way your source can provide color on that seeming contradiction? Can they say when the ramp happened, and why it may contradict Elon's story on the earnings call?

 

[sundaymorning]

I would caution those that think we are at 4k+ model 3 production/week. Not saying it is not happening but IF you are basing a short term stock buy or particularly an option buy on this...be careful...use money (again particularly with short term options) that you look at as 'lotto money' that you can afford to lose.

<gets off soap box>

I certainly agree with this. I don’t have any short term options and don’t intend to buy short term unless Tesla officially releases their statement. My source isn’t directly from Nummi like LBK’s so I can’t say for certain with 100% clarity, although I am quite confident in my assessment of the overall picture based on what I am hearing outside of TMC.

 

[TNEVol]

They had a model 3 in aventura for the reveal party, not sure if it is still there, if not, I would try dania beach service center, I would bet they have one there.

Does someone know if there is a M3 in one of the stores in Miami?

Traveling to FL in a week and am keen to see my future car....

Will be in S Fl 5-21 with our M3 delivered Valentines Day may be able to let you see/drive?

 

[Todd Burch]

The number reported by the friend would have been production numbers for 5/2 thru 5/9, which were all after the earnings call, so it's possible there was a big jump in that time, although that seems an optimistic viewpoint.

It could also be that the 4,126 number was simply that Wednesday's daily rate extrapolated to a week.

Or it could be that the source is full of it. (Is he not worried about losing his job?)

Regardless, as much as I want to believe these numbers, they're a little too good to believe, so I'll remain skeptical just to keep my sanity. (Or what's left of it).

 

[geneclean55]

Lines up

 

[sundaymorning]

The number reported by the friend would have been production numbers for 5/2 thru 5/9, which were all after the earnings call, so it's possible there was a big jump in that time, although that seems an optimistic viewpoint.

It could also be that the 4,126 number was simply that Wednesday's daily rate extrapolated to a week.

Or it could be that the source is full of it. (Is he not worried about losing his job?)

Regardless, as much as I want to believe these numbers, they're a little too good to believe, so I'll remain skeptical just to keep my sanity. (Or what's left of it).

The only way the 4,200 numbers works out is if during CC, Tesla was barely getting back to production and 1-2 days later they really cranked it up by solving bottlenecks. My source isn’t 4,200, but it’s very close to 4k plus/minus a couple hundred. I hope your friend can give us more clarity @lbkmxp100d, if not don’t worry about it. I wouldn’t press him for answers. We’ll likely see VINs being updated within a week anyway. Although your info regarding shutdown date seems very specific, if true then it would have some weight. We’ll find out soon enough.

 

[sundaymorning]

Troy has it at 3125 for the last 7 days. His tracking has historically been accurate while perhaps a week or two behind the actual rates, as confirmed by Elon during the cc.

Can you give us a link to Troys spread sheets?

 

[Ocelot]

[

Yes I think you are a minority. Few NEED an SUV and many like us shun them. Too much wasted metal and poor gas mileage. We have managed to move tables, chairs, mulch even mattresses with a sedan. They are VERY handy. And unlike you we use our plugin for long trips.

Hey there. I hear you but I think you missed the main point. The point was not to debate gas mileage, or metal use, or utility. Few NEED a roadster. That’s great you have the time to plug in on long trips. With two very young kids, and having multiple unexpected stops on top of scheduled gas stops, we find that challenging, especially for drives over 8 hours. Each situation is unique, that’s why they make chocolate and vanilla, I drove a 95 Taurus I bought second hand for 7 years or so, so have an idea what a sedan can and cannot accommodate.

The point however is essentially this. A ton of resources have gone into bringing the model 3 to fruition. An average life cycle for a model is 7 to 9 years with usually a more extensive refresh mid way. Forgetting you or me, the average consumer wants a cuv or suv. That is evidence based with numbers. Ford and now possibly GM have said essentially they are going to stop making them. With other companies offering plug ins, be it EV or hybrid (whose range is steadily increasing) , and Tesla themselves coming out with one, what will sales of a sedan be in 4 years time? 5 years? I am betting very few. Hopefully the front few years is preloaded enough to compensate for the investment.

 

[geneclean55]

Can you give us a link to Troys spread sheets?

Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version

 

[BioSehnsucht]

If the C rate of the cells are the limiting factor then higher voltage will do nothing to increase charging rate. Higher voltage only helps if the current carrying capacity of the charge cable or internal vehicle cabling are the limiting factors, which at this point, as far as I know, they are not.

True, but consider a future where all these non-Tesla high power DC chargers exist, which only obtain their peak power by operating at 800-1000V. By reconfiguring the pack from 400V to 800V during DCFC they can make better use of these fast chargers' capabilties, up to the limits of the C factor. This problem already exists with the meager Chademo connector, the peak theoretical power not being achievable as it would require operating the battery at 500V.

This of course only helps if the battery is intended to be operated this way, and clearly the Model 3 battery isn't (as at best you could split it into two 200V nominal batteries connected in parallel which is pointless), but if you built a similar pack, but with the total pack voltage of all modules in series as 800V for DCFC, then you could parallel two halves to run power train at 400V and series DCFC at 800V.

Think instead the possibility of taking the basic design of the 3 and modifying it for Roadster and Semi - using nearly same physical layout (especially if Roadster really is a double stack, and certainly the Semi will have enough modules to do it). The physical layout is practically perfect, just need more modules or a re-arrangement of the internals to double the existing modules voltage. By building it so that the modules can be split and paralleled to operate at 400V or put in serial for 800V nominal, they can keep the powertrain components the same, but run higher voltages over the charging interface to push more power in a smaller time frame. In the roadster case there's still probably a single supercharger connector so they can't exceed C rate as a whole, but they can push more power up to the limit for a given physical connection. For the Semi, there's multiple connectors in the Megacharger connector, so it makes sense to be able to split the battery and split the charging load (this way you don't have to worry about a difference in resistance not tripping the overall power draw but causing an overheat condition on one or more conductors when one conductor isn't carrying it's load). You still can't exceed C rate, but for the Semi, the pack is so large, that the bigger problem is getting there, and this might help.

 

[RobStark]

Ford and now possibly GM have said essentially they are going to stop making them. With other companies offering plug ins, be it EV or hybrid (whose range is steadily increasing) , and Tesla themselves coming out with one, what will sales of a sedan be in 4 years time? 5 years? I am betting very few. Hopefully the front few years is preloaded enough to compensate for the investment.

GM has not said anything about getting out of the sedan business other than getting rid of their large front wheel drive cars and replacing 3 Cadillac rear wheel drive sedans with two tweener sized sedans. No talk about getting out of the Cruz, Malibu or Regal business.

Morgan Stanley, not GM, said they think GM may get out of the sedan business.

Even though the sedan market has shrunk it is still 3M units per year in the US alone.

I think Tesla will dominate it segment in the US for the next 10 years so Model 3 is very much worth doing.

Tesla can and should do more than eventually have a 3 Crossover and 1 pickup lineup that only addresses the absolute largest segments in the industry. One of the benefits of a skateboard design is that you can cheaply do several form factors on the same basic platform.But I would agree that Tesla doesn't need to chase BMW or MB and have 3-4 dozen nameplates with a coupe, grand coupe, crossover, crossover coupe, traditional SUV,plus traditional sedan in every size.

 

[RobStark]

 

[NicoV]

Can you post link please?


Here’s my answer. My contact at Tesla is a H.S. Friend who works on the M3 line. I lost touch with him for several years but ran into him at airport while on vacation a couple weeks ago. During conversation I found out what he does at Tesla and asked him lots of questions. We have stayed in contact since our brief catch up at airport. He has always been an honest guy and I don’t see any reason he would not give me accurate numbers/info. I spoke to him last Thursday after his shift at Tesla and he said he would text me today after his shift bc I wanted to know what daily M3 output was but he didn’t know that number on Thursday but said he would look at it today and let me know. We spoke for about 10 minutes and he was very confident and what he had to say to me that I reported upon. He knows I’m reporting on here but also knows I would never give any info on his identity as he said Tesla is very closed lipped on these numbers. He did say it was probably bc numbers haven’t been great until now so leaks should start to happen w/ the M3 numbers improving drastically.

Also, there have been several member on this forum who have sent me private messages saying their contacts at Tesla are reporting similar M3 numbers as well.

I’m not trying to convince anyone of the production numbers but simply wanted to pass on good news. You will not hurt my feelings if you don’t believe the info.

Has the third shift started already? If not, I don’t know what to think about those numbers.

 

[avoigt]

We have been so conditioned to pain that good news seems almost unbelievable. Myself, I don't know whether to believe it or not. Have nothing to do but wait.

Our brain is conditioned not to trust information that diverts strongly from past information. You could also say that is the difference between linear and exponential. Bloomberg tracker as well as VIN tracker are more linear and don't react fast for obvious reasons.

The same 10% efficiency improvement in the line a while ago with an incremental output of 100 units may now result in 400. Our brain is still thinking 100 because we learned it before thats what we should expect.

Adding all indications together we have e.g. supplier challenge, Gromann line, downtime, short squeeze tweet, Q3+Q4 CFP, barnacles mail, supplier confirmed unit requested a.o. the likelihood that we have a week beyond 4k is high.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

This kind of speculation is scary. Maybe we're at 3,000/wk. Maybe 4,000. Maybe 0 cars when the line shuts down again for the next adjustment. I think I'll just quietly accumulate shares bit by bit.

Or as Kimahri once eloquently put it: