General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[ValueAnalyst]

@Troy does a nice job of predicting the near-future of Model 3 production and deliveries based on crowd-sourced data, but there is a wide range of views for the next quarter. Given that 3Q18 is guided to be an important milestone in Tesla's history, I am interested in your opinion. Please share your view in the following two polls:

3Q18 Model 3 Production

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

 

[TradingInvest]

I’ll provide the key quote from that article here so nobody needs to waste time reading it anymore: “The terrible idea is that electric cars are the wave of the future, at least for the mass market. Gasoline has advantages in energy density, cost, infrastructure and transportability that electricity doesn’t and won’t for decades. ” I guess that’s a conclusion you can only reach if you have never driven an electric car. If you do, you know that this quote is complete nonsense, together with the article written around it.

"Gasoline has advantages in energy density..."

- whoever said the above, probably doesn't know physics. Electric motors are several times more efficient than gas engines. Most of the gasoline energy turns into heat.

There is another FUD that shorts love to repeat: "Tesla buyers also have gasoline cars in the households. They mainly use the gas car in normal trips, EV is just rich guy's toy."

It couldn't be more wrong. We always pick the Tesla for any types of trips. It's a no brainer, because it's a lot more fun and costs a fraction to drive compared to our gas car. The advantage is so obvious, we plan to get a second Tesla to replace the gas car.

 

[avoigt]

Friday I have seen 2 BMW 7 series on Autopilot or whatever they call it on the Autobahn in Munich. They drove in opposite directions. As far as I could see they did not have hands on the wheel and have been around 80km/h and 100km/h. Its written in big letters on the outside that they are autonomous. Both looked relaxed, one searching deep in his nose some wisdom with his pointer finger....

I wonder where they are with development.

Looking around I do see a lot of systems in development but none for public use really except cruise control and Audi. Also they are all for ICE premium cars and not in use for EVs as far as I know. I find the combination compelling. What is about EVs in China, any of those have autonomous systems?

 

[sundaymorning]

Friday I have seen 2 BMW 7 series on Autopilot or whatever they call it on the Autobahn in Munich. They drove in opposite directions. As far as I could see they did not have hands on the wheel and have been around 80km/h and 100km/h. Its written in big letters on the outside that they are autonomous. Both looked relaxed, one searching deep in his nose some wisdom with his pointer finger....

I wonder where they are with development.

Looking around I do see a lot of systems in development but none for public use really except cruise control and Audi. Also they are all for ICE premium cars and not in use for EVs as far as I know. I find the combination compelling. What is about EVs in China, any of those have autonomous systems?

I highly doubt any company out there is fully autonomous, not for another 5-10 years. These “no hands” vehicle’s have eye sensors in them, and when traveling on curvy roads the system would tap out and warns the driver to retake control. When lanes gets confusing the system won’t even attempt to keep the car between the lines, it will beep and you have the responsibility to retake control as fast as you can. At least the Tesla tries to figure it out until it can’t, then beeps... having hands on the wheel is crucial.

 

[NicoV]

"The advantage is so obvious, we plan to get a second Tesla to replace the gas car.

#MeToo

 

[kbM3]

"Gasoline has advantages in energy density..."

- whoever said the above, probably doesn't know physics. Electric motors are several times more efficient than gas engines. Most of the gasoline energy turns into heat.

There is another FUD that shorts love to repeat: "Tesla buyers also have gasoline cars in the households. They mainly use the gas car in normal trips, EV is just rich guy's toy."

It couldn't be more wrong. We always pick the Tesla for any types of trips. It's a no brainer, because it's a lot more fun and costs a fraction to drive compared to our gas car. The advantage is so obvious, we plan to get a second Tesla to replace the gas car.

Whoever said that does know physics. The weight of gasoline compared to the weight of a current generation battery pack needed to contain the same energy is dramatically different.

Electric motors being more efficient, does not change that fact. It merely means a battery pack can get by with only 75 kWh of energy whereas a gasoline tank needs to contain > 300 kWh of energy.

 

[trils0n]

Whoever said that does know physics. The weight of gasoline compared to the weight of a current generation battery pack needed to contain the same energy is dramatically different.

Electric motors being more efficient, does not change that fact. It merely means a battery pack can get by with only 75 kWh of energy whereas a gasoline tank needs to contain > 300 kWh of energy.

The point is that they are picking one element of a complex system. By focusing on just that 1 element and ignoring the rest of the system they come to false conclusions about the viability of the tech.

 

[ZsoZso]

Mission E has a sweet concept design, but with only an estimated 20,000 to be in production next year I doubt they will keep the concept design. It’s more likely that the mission E will end up looking like the Panamera with an “E” badge; this will help Porsche keep their cost down. The mission E also won’t have Autopilot, I wonder what their center screen or navigation will look like? It’s all concepts right now and we know how that has turned out in the past. It’s very unusual that the Mission E is slated for production next year and yet they haven’t finalized pricing or style yet. The Model 3 was 90% complete with basic pricing structures 1.3 full year before production.

Yes, the very nice looking neat design in the video you respond to is the concept / prototype vehicle. I liked the look of that too. However, when I saw more recent testing articles, the actual cars being tested look much more mundane, typical current porsche-style, none of that futuristic look of the concept:

Watch the Porsche Mission E Test at the Nurburgring

Porsche’s all-electric Mission E is a ‘game change’, says pro-driver Mark Webber after test drive

ps: I specifically loathe the fake exhausts visible on the back of the car in the above article!

 

[sundaymorning]

Yes, the very nice looking neat design in the video you respond to is the concept / prototype vehicle. I liked the look of that too. However, when I saw more recent testing articles, the actual cars being tested look much more mundane, typical current porsche-style, none of that futuristic look of the concept:

Watch the Porsche Mission E Test at the Nurburgring

Porsche’s all-electric Mission E is a ‘game change’, says pro-driver Mark Webber after test drive

ps: I specifically loathe the fake exhausts visible on the back of the car in the above article!

I agree, concept styles never find their way to the market. A whole new line of robotics would have to be created for just 20k production. Porsche won’t do it, it’s going to look like the Panamera with a “mission e” badge. My guess is that the suicide doors won’t be there neither, don’t get me wrong the Porsche is a nice car, but paying $150k for something slower than the Model S with no AP and without a proven battery technology is taking quite a leap. Although there are plenty of people who can afford the mission E even at $180-200k, it’ll sell as it is better than its ICE brethren.

 

[JRP3]

Updated supercharger plans: Tesla updates plans Supercharger locations for 2018-2019 expansion

 

[Intl Professor]

Off recent discussions, but does anyone with expertise I obviously lack have an opinion about this:

Tesla: Longs Vs. Shorts - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Whoever said that does know physics. The weight of gasoline compared to the weight of a current generation battery pack needed to contain the same energy is dramatically different.

Electric motors being more efficient, does not change that fact. It merely means a battery pack can get by with only 75 kWh of energy whereas a gasoline tank needs to contain > 300 kWh of energy.

It really depends what you’re measuring. Electrons are far more energy dense than gasoline.

 

[JRP3]

It really depends what you’re measuring. Electrons are far more energy dense than gasoline.

Gasoline has electrons too

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

Gasoline has electrons too

It certainly does. And if that were all it contained, it would be as energy dense as electrons.

 

[mongo]

It certainly does. And if that were all it contained, it would be as energy dense as electrons.

I fear if all it contained were electrons, it would not contain the electrons very long...

 

[Johann Koeber]

Friday I have seen 2 BMW 7 series on Autopilot or whatever they call it on the Autobahn in Munich. They drove in opposite directions. As far as I could see they did not have hands on the wheel and have been around 80km/h and 100km/h. Its written in big letters on the outside that they are autonomous. Both looked relaxed, one searching deep in his nose some wisdom with his pointer finger....

I wonder where they are with development.

Looking around I do see a lot of systems in development but none for public use really except cruise control and Audi. Also they are all for ICE premium cars and not in use for EVs as far as I know. I find the combination compelling. What is about EVs in China, any of those have autonomous systems?

We might add that a portion of the autobahn near Munich (A9 from Munich to Ingolstadt) has been prepared as a testbed for developing autonomous cars. It includes special signage and transponders in the guiderails etc. Remember BMW HQ is in Munich, Audi in Ingolstadt. They began with this testbed in 2015.

Autobahn-Teststrecke: Was bedeutet dieses Schild? - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Mobilität

 

[kbM3]

ps: I specifically loathe the fake exhausts visible on the back of the car in the above article!

You realize those are camouflage, right?

 

[kbM3]

It really depends what you’re measuring. Electrons are far more energy dense than gasoline.

But those pesky things are so hard to see!

 

[sundaymorning]

Interesting read.

Hitler and 'his Volkswagen': Tracing the 80-year history of the Beetle | DW | 26.05.2018

 

[vigleik]

@Troy does a nice job of predicting the near-future of Model 3 production and deliveries based on crowd-sourced data, but there is a wide range of views for the next quarter. Given that 3Q18 is guided to be an important milestone in Tesla's history, I am interested in your opinion. Please share your view in the following two polls:

3Q18 Model 3 Production

ValueAnalyst on Twitter

When you make a poll, why do you always choose options that range from optimistic to completely unrealistic? I’d love to know what the community thinks about Q3 production, but we’re not going to find out when the options start at 60k. I’m not saying 60k model 3 in Q3 is impossible, but it certainly is optimistic. (Personally I consider anthing about 30k in Q2, 45k in Q3 and 60k in Q4 to be a win.)