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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #9741 ValueAnalyst, May 26, 2018
    Last edited: May 26, 2018
    @Troy does a nice job of predicting the near-future of Model 3 production and deliveries based on crowd-sourced data, but there is a wide range of views for the next quarter. Given that 3Q18 is guided to be an important milestone in Tesla's history, I am interested in your opinion. Please share your view in the following two polls:

    3Q18 Model 3 Production

    ValueAnalyst on Twitter
     
  2. TradingInvest

    TradingInvest Active Member

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    "Gasoline has advantages in energy density..."

    - whoever said the above, probably doesn't know physics. Electric motors are several times more efficient than gas engines. Most of the gasoline energy turns into heat.

    There is another FUD that shorts love to repeat: "Tesla buyers also have gasoline cars in the households. They mainly use the gas car in normal trips, EV is just rich guy's toy."

    It couldn't be more wrong. We always pick the Tesla for any types of trips. It's a no brainer, because it's a lot more fun and costs a fraction to drive compared to our gas car. The advantage is so obvious, we plan to get a second Tesla to replace the gas car.
     
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  3. avoigt

    avoigt Active Member

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    Friday I have seen 2 BMW 7 series on Autopilot or whatever they call it on the Autobahn in Munich. They drove in opposite directions. As far as I could see they did not have hands on the wheel and have been around 80km/h and 100km/h. Its written in big letters on the outside that they are autonomous. Both looked relaxed, one searching deep in his nose some wisdom with his pointer finger....

    I wonder where they are with development.

    Looking around I do see a lot of systems in development but none for public use really except cruise control and Audi. Also they are all for ICE premium cars and not in use for EVs as far as I know. I find the combination compelling. What is about EVs in China, any of those have autonomous systems?
     
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  4. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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    I highly doubt any company out there is fully autonomous, not for another 5-10 years. These “no hands” vehicle’s have eye sensors in them, and when traveling on curvy roads the system would tap out and warns the driver to retake control. When lanes gets confusing the system won’t even attempt to keep the car between the lines, it will beep and you have the responsibility to retake control as fast as you can. At least the Tesla tries to figure it out until it can’t, then beeps... having hands on the wheel is crucial.
     
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  5. NicoV

    NicoV Supporting Member

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    #MeToo
     
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  6. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

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    Whoever said that does know physics. The weight of gasoline compared to the weight of a current generation battery pack needed to contain the same energy is dramatically different.

    Electric motors being more efficient, does not change that fact. It merely means a battery pack can get by with only 75 kWh of energy whereas a gasoline tank needs to contain > 300 kWh of energy.
     
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  7. trils0n

    trils0n 2013 P85

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    The point is that they are picking one element of a complex system. By focusing on just that 1 element and ignoring the rest of the system they come to false conclusions about the viability of the tech.
     
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  8. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Supporting Member

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    Yes, the very nice looking neat design in the video you respond to is the concept / prototype vehicle. I liked the look of that too. However, when I saw more recent testing articles, the actual cars being tested look much more mundane, typical current porsche-style, none of that futuristic look of the concept:

    Watch the Porsche Mission E Test at the Nurburgring

    Porsche’s all-electric Mission E is a ‘game change’, says pro-driver Mark Webber after test drive

    ps: I specifically loathe the fake exhausts visible on the back of the car in the above article!
     
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  9. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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    I agree, concept styles never find their way to the market. A whole new line of robotics would have to be created for just 20k production. Porsche won’t do it, it’s going to look like the Panamera with a “mission e” badge. My guess is that the suicide doors won’t be there neither, don’t get me wrong the Porsche is a nice car, but paying $150k for something slower than the Model S with no AP and without a proven battery technology is taking quite a leap. Although there are plenty of people who can afford the mission E even at $180-200k, it’ll sell as it is better than its ICE brethren.
     
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  10. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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  11. Intl Professor

    Intl Professor Active Member

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  12. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

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    It really depends what you’re measuring. Electrons are far more energy dense than gasoline.
     
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  13. JRP3

    JRP3 Hyperactive Member

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    Gasoline has electrons too ;)
     
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  14. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

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    It certainly does. And if that were all it contained, it would be as energy dense as electrons.
     
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  15. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    I fear if all it contained were electrons, it would not contain the electrons very long...
     
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  16. Johann Koeber

    Johann Koeber Active Member

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    We might add that a portion of the autobahn near Munich (A9 from Munich to Ingolstadt) has been prepared as a testbed for developing autonomous cars. It includes special signage and transponders in the guiderails etc. Remember BMW HQ is in Munich, Audi in Ingolstadt. They began with this testbed in 2015.

    Autobahn-Teststrecke: Was bedeutet dieses Schild? - SPIEGEL ONLINE - Mobilität
     
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  17. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

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    You realize those are camouflage, right?
     
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  18. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

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    But those pesky things are so hard to see!
     
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  19. sundaymorning

    sundaymorning Active Member

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  20. vigleik

    vigleik Member

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    When you make a poll, why do you always choose options that range from optimistic to completely unrealistic? I’d love to know what the community thinks about Q3 production, but we’re not going to find out when the options start at 60k. I’m not saying 60k model 3 in Q3 is impossible, but it certainly is optimistic. (Personally I consider anthing about 30k in Q2, 45k in Q3 and 60k in Q4 to be a win.)
     
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