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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 30, 2017.

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  1. dmckinstry

    dmckinstry Model X 2019

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    In his story, he said it veered to the right but he gripped the wheel to control it. To me it sounded like autopilot was trying to take it to the right of the barrier, but he was startled by the veer, panicked and his action forced it into the barrier.
    Just a guess on my part.
     
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  2. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018

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    Firmware patch for the braking issue started going OTA yesterday. Tweet from Elon: Elon Musk on Twitter
     
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  3. kbM3

    kbM3 Active Member

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  4. trils0n

    trils0n 2013 P85

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    "Tesla/Musk finally admit defeat in feud with CR"
    -NYT probably

    :rolleyes:o_O
     
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  5. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Supporting Member

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    #9765 SteveG3, May 26, 2018
    Last edited: May 26, 2018
    I too was impressed upon reading that, and,

    "By looking at my navigation and by not having both hands on the wheel, I was not paying full attention to the road while the vehicle was in Autopilot and was not following Tesla’s directions in regards to the correct use of the software. I want to make it clear that I take responsibility in regards to my actions."

    but, then, I read what immediately followed in You You's statement,

    "With that being said, I do not believe that there are many Tesla owners who, when using Autopilot, always keep both hands on the wheel and provide their undivided attention to monitoring the road and the software. This collision was directly caused by the Autopilot software seriously malfunctioning and misinterpreting the road. This collision could have happened to anyone who does not expect a car travelling at a fast speed in a straight line to suddenly and without warning, veer off course. After tens of thousands of kilometres worth of Autopilot driving without major incidents, I have learned to trust the software. Autopilot provides users with a strong sense of security and reliability as it takes you to your destination and navigates traffic on your behalf. Clearly, I had become too trusting of the software.

    To me this reads as, ~I take responsibility for my actions, but the accident happened because of autopilot software malfunctioning~

    I do get You You's point that AP veering suddenly could be something hard for the driver to catch and correct. However, YY had been looking at the road he would have seen there was a major change in the road up ahead, with one lane splitting off the road. If he was aware that AP has been known to mistakenly try to take exit ramps (and with "tens of thousands of kilometres worth of autopilot driving" seems unlikely he was not aware of this), he likely would have recognized this as a circumstance for which to prepare himself to takeover the steering immediately. To be fair, if this behavior still occurs with AP (not sure if the major update rolled out in late March fixed this), it seems more something that Tesla should make an effort to make clear is one of the situations AP can misread, rather than have people find this out by trial and error, or by being Tesla forum readers.

    It's also unclear that the system was "malfunctioning." This might simply be behavior within the known realm of AP behaviors. Again, perhaps a case for Tesla making the top specific limits in AP behavior more clear to owners so they can be further prepared for immediately taking over the steering.

    fwiw, he continues with this statement in the next paragraph,

    "Furthermore, I believe that if Autopilot even has the small potential of misreading a clearly marked gore point, and has the potential to drive into a gore point and crash into a barrier, it should not be tested in beta, on the open road, and by normal consumers."

    Gore (road) - Wikipedia

    I may be mistaken, but, I believe the exit ramp confusion that AP has been known to experience applies to these "gore points" as well. Again, I don't know if the last update in late March/April fixed this. You You's car may well have been sent to Europe before that update occurred.
     
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  6. sub

    sub Active Member

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    I agree, but it definitely keeps the bears/trolls from participating in the poll. ;)
     
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  7. TradingInvest

    TradingInvest Active Member

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    YouYou Xue said autopilot shouldn't have been released. But without autopilot he probably would have died - he said he fell asleep 15 to 25 times during the whole trip. Autopilot saved him successfully every time.
     
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  8. ZsoZso

    ZsoZso Supporting Member

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    Yeah, I know, but what is the point?
    Reminds me of this commercial, see from 0:54s point:
     
  9. Waiting4M3

    Waiting4M3 Active Member

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    You You's trip started in UK on Apr 13. It's unclear when he shipped his car. It could take a month or more to ship, and Electrk reported on Jan 31 that he was going to ship his car. It's possible that You You missed the 2018.10.4 SW pushed on Mar 15 that had a significant AP improvement. Looking at You You's Twitter feed he posted something in mid May complaining about a SW update issue that Tesla hasn't resolved for him quickly, so maybe he was trying to get a SW update while in EU? But there is no clear indication one way or the other.

    I hope he will work with Tesla to get the data off of that car so we can all learn what happened, and hopefully something useful for Tesla to improve their AP to reduce future occurrences. Also, regardless if You You had some fault, it doesn't do any good pointing fingers now because the bad press is already out, I'm sure NYT/CNN won't be running ayn article clarifying any mitigating circumstances in favor of Tesla.
     
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  10. SteveG3

    SteveG3 Supporting Member

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    took weeks to rollout to 3 after rolling out to S and X. from the dates you've provided, seems likely his car did not have that update.
     
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  11. Esme Es Mejor

    Esme Es Mejor Member

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    I’m convinced that Tesla should work on implementing eye-tracking software. Not because the software is malfunctioning, but because the drivers are. You You was on his phone. Heather, the woman in Utah, was on her phone. Circumstances suggest Walter Huang was on his phone.

    It isn’t specific to Tesla or AutoPilot. It seems like 1/2 the non-Tesla drivers I see are on their phones. But Tesla could do something to save Tesla drivers from themselves.

    They shouldn’t have to. Telling drivers that they actually have to pay attention should be enough. But it doesn’t seem to be.
     
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  12. Oil4AsphaultOnly

    Oil4AsphaultOnly Supporting Member

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    Already there. I'd like to think we're the modern middle class. A model 3 for long range trips, and a leaf for daily-commuting/spouse's car. Minimizes capex without needing to keep an ICE. My leaf (and soon the model 3) has a tow hitch, so hauling lumber/fertilizer is already zero-emissions.
     
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  13. MartinAustin

    MartinAustin Active Member

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    I am surprised "You You Xue" is not on this forum site posting away like crazy, if he is such a prolific and important promoter of the brand. We would be able to reason with him.

    First example. When he drove his Model 3 at top speed, at night, around other drivers on the highway, just to see what the top speed of the car is. Then he posted video of himself doing it. Very Irresponsible Driving and totally illegal.

    Then I see a video of him turning off the car's headlights just to see what the Autopilot will do? The guy is a dangerous driver, dangerous to be on the roads around law-abiding and sensible road-users, IMO.

    He continued to drive his car even though, by his own testimony, the car was exhibiting clanking and steering/suspension issues.

    Then, he drove his car to a geographical territory that Tesla's navigation does not fully support, and even though Tesla actively recommended he avoid using Autopilot, he still did it. Even putting the "driver fatigue" factors to one side... why is anyone surprised he crashed? He is unable to make sensible decisions as a driver.

    Frankly I am glad his car is crashed (and he is uninjured), because his sort of publicity will grind to a halt.

    Tesla does not need "unpaid promoters" that regularly break laws, endanger others, post videos of themselves doing it, and try to garner attention.
     
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  14. BioSehnsucht

    BioSehnsucht Model 3 LR

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    Assuming for the moment that YouYouXue's reports of clanking and steering/suspension issues are true... it's also possible that something was failing and he drove until it failed. AP might not have steered off the road, something may have snapped and totally jacked up the suspension geometry causing the car to lose control - possibly AP almost saved him by going right instead of straight (assuming failure lead to car pulling to the right, then AP made the right choice to go right instead of try to stay straight, like he did). But since he then crashed, it'll be hard to tell what was due to crash and what not, unless Tesla can get a look at it... which YouYouXue will have no reason to facilitate since he would rather keep driving with (to quote him) "thoughts and prayers" than stop and send the car back to North America where he could get it looked at.

    Since he fell asleep 15-25 times by his own admission, maybe he ran over something that caused the damage ... or maybe his car has some rare early vehicle problem yet to be discovered due to so few having so many miles on them.
     
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  15. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #9775 ValueAnalyst, May 27, 2018
    Last edited: May 27, 2018
    "Always?" o_O I don't think there ever has been a case where the actual fell short of options presented. In fact, the opposite is true in two cases, in which Tesla proved or will likely prove the vast majority pessimistic: Example 1 and Example 2. Interestingly, a Twitter follower gave me a hard time for presenting options that are too pessimistic. :)

    Frankly, I'm surprised about the poll results on TMC that show nearly half of responders expect "60,000 or less" units produced, while on Twitter two-thirds expect more than 60,000, and I expect between 65,000 and 70,000, which is where the median is on Twitter with nearly 3x sample size.

    If I thought Tesla was going to produce less than 60,000 Model 3's in 3Q18, I would take a hard look at my investment thesis, as it would mean zero growth from 5,000 per week by the end of June, which seems likely, to end of September.

    I say 5,000 per week by the end of June "seems likely," because shortly after the last two production downtimes, Tesla doubled the weekly production rate, and more importantly, Tesla more than doubled the sustainable weekly production rate from quarter-end to quarter-end for each quarter since the start of Model 3 production.

    I think the majority will once again prove too conservative, but maybe I'm wrong. We'll know in 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely.
     
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  16. drobchak

    drobchak Member

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    Sorry, once again, is Mission E at Nurburg very camouflaged? Like Mercedes EQ right now? So inside it looks completely different?
     
  17. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #9777 ValueAnalyst, May 27, 2018
    Last edited: May 27, 2018
    If this is the second Grohmann line, and it seems that it is, then I am more optimistic than ever about Tesla's future. I don't think anyone here expected Tesla to be able to replicate the "3x efficient while taking up less space" Grohmann magic to be replicated in less than three months.

    Can we carry this cadence forward and expect weekly module assembly rate to grow by 2,500 to 3,000 each quarter? I don't know, but we know that the first Grohmann line took six months to design and manufacture, but replicating it took only two months. How long will the third, fourth, fifth and on will take? With each subsequent line, it is reasonable to expect possibly higher nameplate capacity in a smaller footprint and at lower cost, or some improvement along a combination of the three dimensions: capacity, footprint, and cost.

    Remember: Tesla bought Grohmann for only $109.5 million, and I'd say this acquisition has already paid back many times over. Note that Grohmann's expertise will not only help move forward the Model 3 production ramp, but also Model S/X production, Powerpack/Powerwall output, and likely even Solar Roof in the coming quarters, and who knows what else. I suspect that the Grohmann team has long been working on a more efficient Gigafactory in China and elsewhere.

    I spent several years in M&A and related areas, and I have never seen an acquisition that was remotely as excellent. Well done, Tesla.
     
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  18. vigleik

    vigleik Member

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    Okay, I’ll give you that some of your polls have had reasonable alternatives. But some clearly don’t, like the one about Semi volume production where the alternatives started at 4Q18 and ended at 1Q21. And perhaps some of your over-the-top bullishness from last year didn’t make it into polls.

    Anyway, I’ll still be very comfortable being long TSLA even if Tesla misses the 5k/week by June goal and then goes on to produce 45k model 3’s in Q3. I’m surprised you wouldn’t be.
     
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  19. mongo

    mongo Well-Known Member

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    This is new stuff for the fourth zone in module assembly (different area from zone that got all the attention). Follow up stated all 4 zones are now resolved.
     
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  20. ValueAnalyst

    ValueAnalyst Closed

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    #9780 ValueAnalyst, May 27, 2018
    Last edited: May 27, 2018
    Do you mean this Semi volume production poll, which offered 12 options including Later and Never?

    Apologies, but given the slanting of facts, I will have to take a break from this back-and-forth so that I can focus on productive discussions. Good luck with your investments.
     
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