General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Lessmog]

In one of his tweets he said that heating in the M3 was adequate: Alex Roy on Twitter

So my guess is his complaint is more about the range loss from using the heat, and the lack of a heat pump.

Been off line for a while. I suspect many shorts will shortly feel a pumping heat and struggle to keep cool. Better get the long ones on, unless Uncle has been generous this season. Not naming any Usernames

 

[roblab]

Personal bias is a very large part of investing, as is faith in people, product, even performance at times. Since many, many people have faith in Tesla, even if you don't, the stock goes up, even on little performance. To us, we expect Elon to tell us what his dreams are, and we want to share the dream.

I bought TSLA at $18 when they first put it on the market, seven years ago. I don't feel the way you do, obviously.

 

[Reciprocity]

Personal bias is a very large part of investing, as is faith in people, product, even performance at times. Since many, many people have faith in Tesla, even if you don't, the stock goes up, even on little performance. To us, we expect Elon to tell us what his dreams are, and we want to share the dream.

I bought TSLA at $18 when they first put it on the market, seven years ago. I don't feel the way you do, obviously.

I disagree, Your stock would be worth 0 if Tesla did not deliver the Model S. But they did. This is not blind faith, these are things that happened. They where rough, and the Model X was painful and the Model 3 is hell. But, much of the faith has been earned. Same goes for SpaceX. It went from ridiculous to reality. I dont have blind faith in anything, but I do have faith on past results.

 

[Zythryn]

...
if you read my post... you'd see a link to an article about a Baird's analysis for Tesla in 2017... and if you read the excerpts from it that I posted... then you'd see that I am in fact correct.
...

Nope, there is your bias again.
Just as a statement of logic, not research...

Let's take the first statement:

-- "Chinese research firm KGI cited channel checks to conclude that Tesla Motors is ramping production and strengthening automation to ensure the company hits its 2nd-half 2017 production target of 100,000 units of the Model 3"

You then state that since 100,000 units were not shipped that is a fail.
How do you know? The statement is that Tesla will be ramping up production and automation to reach 100k units produced.
The important thing to most investors is that the production capability exists. If Tesla shows that they will produce 100,000 units in the first half of '18 vs the second half of '17 is a minor issue as long as Tesla can get to that point.

So no, Tesla didn't hit the very high goal of 100k units. Yes, all appearance are that when supplier issues are ironed out, they have the production capability to reach that very soon.

Tesla sold the first Model 3s on schedule (I never thought that would happen).
Production ramp is slower than hoped, but seems to be accelerating rapidly. From casual observation, they seem to be on schedule for their revised ramp goal of 5,000/week by the end of 1st quarter.
SuperCharger and Service centers have continued expanding, although not as fast as the aggressive goals.
Build quality reports have been good.

Am I biased? Yes. Do I let that interfere with my investments? I do my best not to.
And because of that, I sleep very well at night and my blood pressure stays low

 

[roblab]

I disagree, Your stock would be worth 0 if Tesla did not deliver the Model S. But they did. This is not blind faith, these are things that happened. They where rough, and the Model X was painful and the Model 3 is hell. But, much of the faith has been earned. Same goes for SpaceX. It went from ridiculous to reality. I dont have blind faith in anything, but I do have faith on past results.

It seemed that the holler was that they didn't ramp up like they were supposed to, they were late, they had fit and finish problems. I think everyone believed it would happen. Most of us long time owners realized, and still realize, that Elon tells us what he hopes will happen in what would be an ideal time scale. We know it probably won't happen that way, but we also know that it will happen. Those of us who invest in that understanding seem to do well.

 

[Curt Renz]

The trick is not to rely on simple valuation models intended to tell the market how a stock SHOULD be priced. The trick is to anticipate how much the market actually WILL price a stock.

 

[2virgule5]

"You keep thinking that things people say matter, they dont. What matters is what people do. This is a fact."

wtf does this mean?... what Elon says ABSOLUTELY matters... what a bunch of analysts say ABSOLUTELY matters... these things affect the share price... and then when they DON'T do the things they say... it doesn't affect the share price... because they just cash in on the SP effect from what they said.

so, basically, the OPPOSITE of what you just said is in fact how it is.

like for example... you claiming the Model 3 "is ramping to 300,000+/year"... why do you make that claim?... because that's what ELON TOLD YOU!... there is no evidence that that's happening... and quite the contrary there IS EVIDENCE that it's NOT... but yet you argue this as if that is a fact.

"What is your scenario where Tesla fails so badly that the stock price gets cut in half."

1500/wk M3s at the end of Q1 with poor GMs and a request for $1.3 billion from dilution that turns into $2b... and then 3000/wk in Aug with poor GMs and yet another request for money.

this is an EXTREMELY likely scenario.

EDIT: evidence that they need funding but not asking for it or not getting it would cut this stock in half rapidly.

The good news is that - in good faith - we will be able to check upon this prediction starting in 3 months from now, and compare with the obviously very different one(s) the majority of this board is making (including me).

 

[MitchJi]

I received my Model 3 from Marina Del Rey on 12/29. I already have about 400 miles on it. I agree with you. I feel very secure about my TSLA investment. This car will turn the auto industry upside down. It is a frickin' amazing car at any price, it makes any car (other than Tesla) a laughing stock. Yet, I do prefer my Model S for size and ride comfort. I will have my Model S up for sale on ebay starting Friday. Why? Because I plan to buy a new Model S and then I will sell my Model 3 in March.

I’d wait for a refresh.

 

[hobbes]

Just got a Twitter alert on changes to the Model 3 VIN numbers. The people tracking it have been wondering why even many of the later VINs were showing a production year of 2017. It now appears, that VINs starting 3027 and up have been updated to show 2018.

Asking very quietly: could that possibly mean Tesla produced all the earlier VINs in 2017? Would be above my expectations.

Was just going to post the same! Answering in a firm voice: I think so!
EDIT: Bought another month´s salary worth of TSLA. Not an advice though, I usually don´t get the timing right.

 

[schonelucht]

The good news is that - in good faith - we will be able to check upon this prediction starting in 3 months from now, and compare with the obviously very different one(s) the majority of this board is making (including me).

I hope we Will actually do this. And that @myusername will admit he was wrong if Tesla hits 4000/week and not hide behind the fact it’s not quite 5000. But also that all the bulls will admit they were wrong if it does turn out to be 2000/week and not hide behind Whatever wishful thinking is then du jour.

 

[Reciprocity]

It seemed that the holler was that they didn't ramp up like they were supposed to, they were late, they had fit and finish problems. I think everyone believed it would happen. Most of us long time owners realized, and still realize, that Elon tells us what he hopes will happen in what would be an ideal time scale. We know it probably won't happen that way, but we also know that it will happen. Those of us who invest in that understanding seem to do well.

I totally get it. But you dont just have blind faith. You had then some background on the guy and the company. Like, I could tell you that I am going to do some great things if you would just give me your life savings and you would tell me to pack sand because you know im crazy. Elon is crazy to, but he is also very capable. The need to work on the second part of the equation. Back at 18$, what was the thing that Tesla had accomplished that wowed you the most?

I mean, if you invested in Tesla just because they where making an electric car and it sounded cool and you held strong during all the pain, then more power to you, you have gonads like Elon. I wouldn't have done that, I am a wuss. I didnt buy any Tesla until 150ish and I came from APPL. I dont own an apple product and never have, but I loved the company and how they went about their business of dominating certain aspects of the the businesses they are in. I see Tesla in much the same light. Amazing leaders with a will that is a force of nature but more importantly, the profit intent is there and its clear for me to see. Elon is not doing this for charity, he wants the profits to expand what he is able to do long term. Its pretty clear that EVs is only a tiny part of his overall plan. Ill invest in all of them, because I believe he can see the near future better then just about anyone willing to talk about it.

 

[generalenthu]

Just leaving this comment from a claimed insider here

Disqus - Tesla Model 3 Early Impressions – it’s as good as we hoped it would be

 

[Gerardf]

The trick is not to rely on simple valuation models intended to tell the market how a stock SHOULD be priced. The trick is to anticipate how much the market actually WILL price a stock.

Yes, very true, we longs are “skating to where the puck is going to be”

 

[30seconds]

I hope we Will actually do this. And that @myusername will admit he was wrong if Tesla hits 4000/week and not hide behind the fact it’s not quite 5000. But also that all the bulls will admit they were wrong if it does turn out to be 2000/week and not hide behind Whatever wishful thinking is then du jour.

when matters. 2000 / week right now would be very successful. 2000 / week at the end of Q2 2018 would be very problematic

 

[Lessmog]

Just leaving this comment from a claimed insider here

Disqus - Tesla Model 3 Early Impressions – it’s as good as we hoped it would be

So, I only threw a glance at that discussion as it pertains to LIDAR. And I spent today on the road, the last hour or so through thick banks of fog in moose country. Anyone trusting their lives and those of their loved ones to light wavelength tech alone is reckless and suicidal and should be confined. Radar also will not dependably detect animals. One always has to adapt to current conditions. I wish there was a law mandating reflectors on moose (let's start with humans)

 

[Ulmo]

Just got a Twitter alert on changes to the Model 3 VIN numbers. The people tracking it have been wondering why even many of the later VINs were showing a production year of 2017. It now appears, that VINs starting 3027 and up have been updated to show 2018.

Asking very quietly: could that possibly mean Tesla produced all the earlier VINs in 2017? Would be above my expectations.

I’d expect yes; what’s the count?
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

VINs 3027-3840 were changed from MY2017 to MY2018 and check digit calculation has been corrected for VINs 3841-8362.

So the number to work off of is around 3,026.

(The check digit error was a goof people noticed before, so it was pretty expected they would fix it; unrelated.)

I believe the later range was already 2018. I think the check digit error was they calc the 2017 VIN check digit and updated the year digit but not the check digit (oops). So the VINs were in limbo.

 

[Waiting4M3]

The Truth Behind Doug DeMuro's Tesla Model 3 Review

He gets paid more for being controversial than being right or honest. I would take everything he says with a yuuuge grain of salt

 

[Waiting4M3]

Just got a Twitter alert on changes to the Model 3 VIN numbers. The people tracking it have been wondering why even many of the later VINs were showing a production year of 2017. It now appears, that VINs starting 3027 and up have been updated to show 2018.

Asking very quietly: could that possibly mean Tesla produced all the earlier VINs in 2017? Would be above my expectations.

This reinforces my expectation from ~2 weeks ago, before the new VINs that were registered last week:
2017 delivery ~1500, production ~3000, last week of 2017 production at 1k/wk rate. Any upside surprise IMO will be in the last week production rate, the other 2 #s are very unlikely to beat.

 

[Drumheller]

I’d expect yes; what’s the count?
Model 3 VINs on Twitter

So the number to work off of is around 3,026.

(The check digit error was a goof people noticed before, so it was pretty expected they would fix it; unrelated.)

I believe the later range was already 2018. I think the check digit error was they calc the 2017 VIN check digit and updated the year digit but not the check digit (oops). So the VINs were in limbo.

260 were produced, 220 delivered, in Q3. So it looks like the max upper bound for Q4 would be 2,766 produced and 2806 delivered. I suspect it's fair to say some of those weren't delivered, and probably some weren't produced, yet. I think 2,000 is a reasonable guess for Q4. We will find out tomorrow.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Per Highest production VIN in the wild a VIN 3040 was delivered 2017/12/30 so I don't think you can make any assumptions about numbers just based on when they became "2018" VINs versus "2017" VINs.