General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Brando]

Your post referred to a new mine. New mines will help cobalt pricing go down, so why does it matter that Tesla is getting out of needing Cobalt?

most expensive component [drive down battery costs]
Tesla already lowest user [increased Nickel] less than industry goal of 8:1:1 [Tesla probably the lowest cost compared to other Cobalt users]
No cobalt use may happen if solid state/silicon problems can be solved - many are researching [further cost reduction possible]

 

[JRP3]

Thanks ...that does not look like a M3 or SX for sure!

Are you referring to this? Elon Musk on Twitter Looks like a 3 to me.

 

[Unpilot]

Are you referring to this? Elon Musk on Twitter Looks like a 3 to me.

Yeah that one. It is hard to get a good perspective but the wheel well looks kinda of big for a 3

 

[Boomer19]

Since it is the weekend and this is the general discussion forum I'll add my thoughts on the short burn of the century.

Firstly, I think it is likely that some announcement is brewing. Elon buying more shares when he already has a monster options package suggests that there is going to be a hefty price increase in the not too distant future. Moreover, to count as the "sort burn of the century" I think the announcement has to push the share price up by a minimum of 25-30% to margin call a large enough number of the short positions to really burn and further increase the price.

Secondly, the announcement is not likely to be just hitting 5k model 3s per week. Too many people can see that we are close to that target to really put much upward pressure on the price. Even an upside on production or reservation numbers is unlikely to do this in just the remaining two weeks. I doubt enough people would believe Elon if he said he would be producing a significantly large number of 3s in a short enough period of time to really cause a short burn.

So the question is what can cause such a change? I think the announcement has to be one that underwrites the balance sheet in a way that the short thesis of bankruptcy becomes so impossible to the point of being absurd (although I think it's already absurd unless we see a huge shock to the financial system in the next 6-12 months). Here in no particular order are the possibilities I can think of...albeit many with low probability.

1) The German car makers have realised diesel is dead and they are in trouble. They don't have enough time to scale a battery alternative and one or more are turning to Tesla to be a supplier. This would lead to $10s of billions in supplier agreements and funding to build a gigafactory in Europe. Elon has recently tweeted about where he wants his euro factory, so there is potential for some movement here.

2) Same as 1 but replace Europe with China with construction work already underway for some time.

3) Energy storage agreements - Of all the products I think Tesla could ramp quickly, battery storage seem to be the most likely. Cell production appears to be working well and semi-automated pack production lines to be almost finalised. Combined with the recent reduction in cobalt as a supply/cost constraint there doesn't seem to be much of an issue duplicating the lines at the current gigafactory quickly. A multi GWh supply agreement with some utilities could be filled in relatively short order.

4) Partnership/acquisition with/of a truck manufacturer. Tesla has been testing their truck for quite a while now - they could have an agreement with an established truck manufacturer to roll out the vehicle faster than initially thought. Current manufacturing lines of competing truck manufacturers are likely to need less work to change to the Tesla semi. This would also feed into point 3 where battery and solar would be required in a large scale for the trucks and megachargers.

5) A purely financial move - Elon and a bunch of his rich mates have purchased enough options to take town the current share liquidity in the market and make short covering expensive. Surely Larry and Sergi could purchase 5% each. Possibly an attempt at taking Tesla private.

6) Dramatic increase in autonomous driving and a much quicker mover to the Tesla network. This seems unlikely as Elon doesn't seem to be the kind of person to withhold progress on this front. However a couple of hundred thousand vehicles starting to generate revenue for Tesla would have the desired effect.

7) Solar roof manufacturing has had a breakthrough and Tesla can produce far more than initially thought at a lower cost. Little has been said in this area, however I'm sure work is still being done. There is little concern around production materials - solar panels and glass are abundant. Sales could ramp quickly if there is supply. New rooves are being built every day and there is already a large workforce of roofers/electricians to install the product.

I'm interested to hear more on what others think could cause the short burn.

Very interesting post, which should generate lots of feedback. Quick thoughts from a layperson

1) seems plausible.
2) also, but that’s a tough secret to keep, no?
3) at glance, market seems to not care about these, even though they have many projects. This will def change as profit margin increases. Then all of a sudden it’ll be about energy. One thing I would like explained to me, and persons like me...who know enough to smell the BS but not expert enough to do some of the number crunching in certain segments...GF capacity and % of that capacity needed for 300-400k cars, versus % available for battery storage projects. I know it’s simplistic view, but This would help me gauge as GF1 progresses (33% completed, another few years to be competed - also I realize the projected output has varied as they progress).
4) also cool, I think the partnership idea would be looked upon more favorably. It I think Tesla mindset would maybe not be as willing to do that?
5) would be sad if we weren’t able to trade it anymore, and it seems extremely unlikely, but given the amount of BS he has to put up with, wouldn’t surprise me if he did everything he could to go private. But realistically, isn’t it more likely he needs capital markets for expansion plans...then again, look at all the $ they can raise with BS coin offerings. He can just go that route hahah.
6) will get very interesting, but do we think regulation will change that rapidly?
7) very quiet here, almost nonexistent as far as MS media.

Look forward to this discussion

Also, I’ve seen some speculate that catalyst will be that he will tell us the amount of reservations in early July along with Q2 deliveries. I don’t think this will happen.
a) we already know there’s a lot
b) if there’s more than 400-500k he’ll scare away the ones at the end bc they can’t produce fast enough

 

[Boomer19]

Yeah that one. It is hard to get a good perspective but the wheel well looks kinda of big for a 3

Agreed. The front nose looks semi-ish
But I can’t tell. Interesting he keeps dropping hints. Like widespread panic playing last night at Tesla and he posts #dontpanic

 

[JRP3]

Yeah that one. It is hard to get a good perspective but the wheel well looks kinda of big for a 3

Could be S/X but definitely not a semi. Camera seems to be distorting perspective somewhat. My guess, Elon is all about 3 production now and is working on the Model 3 line so it's a 3.

 

[Boomer19]

Could be S/X but definitely not a semi. Camera seems to be distorting perspective somewhat. My guess, Elon is all about 3 production now and is working on the Model 3 line so it's a 3.

Yeah, seems hard to imagine he’s doing anything but.

Heres mongos take,

I'm thinking that isn't the semi due to the multi piece unibody construction. Semi at reveal looked like frame rails.
The concave frame rail looks like they were trying for a lower profile, and the metal wheel arch body panel does not match the flat side approach with single piece bumper and wheel flare cover. (Of course prototype != production).

I'm thinking Y. What are they testing? It looks like they load up the frame to the point of deformation, so is that the reaction point for the rear axle? If so, then likely not the pickup due to truck vs bed shape.

 

[mongo]

Yeah, seems hard to imagine he’s doing anything but.

Heres mongos take,

Yup, there goes all my retyping....

 

[Boomer19]

Yup, there goes all my retyping....

Haha. Mongo you can’t like your own post! That’s stat padding lol
Now we’re in a circular reference

 

[JRP3]

The front nose looks semi-ish

I think we're looking at the right rear of a Model 3 with the doors off. You can just see the cutout on the left for the rear bumper cover. On the right you can see the floor extending forward.

 

[JRP3]

My view

 

[mongo]

I think we're looking at the right rear of a Model 3 with the doors off. You can just see the cutout on the left for the rear bumper cover. On the right you can see the floor extending forward.

Ahhh, could be the reaction points for the DU subframe, doesn't need to be semi style solid axle.

Crap! Is that just the torque test for the 3P?

 

[mekberg]

Crap! Is that just the torque test for the 3P?

Vicious torque test.

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[mongo]

Vicious torque test.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Indeed, I had been attributing his tweet to something I'd expect to be torque heavy, like pickup or Y with towing package. But if that is 'just' a 3 with performance drive unit, the front motor is only going to be useful for ballast and regen! (Ok, also useful when not flooring it)

(When I first read his tweet, I though it said viscous...)

 

[Boomer19]

Massive Tesla Model 3 shipment spotted in transit ahead of critical end of the quarter

 

[22522]

Semi production line ?
View media item 118530

Looks like a front wheel well from the semi cab.

So I would say, “Semi production.” And leave out the “line” for now.

 

[Boomer19]

Looks like a front wheel well from the semi cab.

So I would say, “Semi production.” And leave out the “line” for now.

My view

View attachment 311889

looks like you (jrp3) nailed it.
can see another photo here used for the header in this article
Elon Musk considers crowdsourcing Tesla manufacturing by having owners ‘help build’ cars

you guys are all quite good at this though

 

[Henchman]

This is all moot if Pedro made it up, but if he didn't, then this is what I see:

What's Pedro's point of view? Here's some:
View attachment 311813
"My source on the line emailed me last night."

That's what I thought: it's from someone working there. The worker only sees the physics and mechanics of the speed of installing a new line and the speed at which it operates. The worker does NOT see the manufacturing of the new line AND the cost to engineer, order, build, and install it. So, the worker looks at the line and calculates in their head extrapolating from a time and space of their own witness, but doesn't take into account the loans and factory equipment manufacturing necessary to bring that about. That worker sees a pathway on the basis of what is presented to them, but not based on the entire corporate system.

What that means to me is that the worker, who is probably slightly optimistic since they have an interest in working on that thing and think of it naturally, and often doesn't naturally consider the amount of time they have off or are not working on it, has viewed what is possible for the equipment systems, as it can be installed over the next few seasons. Since there is a push to actually build a higher rate of cars, we'll see some amount of that possibility, but it has to fit into the realities of getting and installing that factory equipment and calibrating it for production.

The tent thing tells me they are agile enough to do stuff like copy paste without senseless nitty excuses of why they "can't" copy-paste factory lines. That, however, does not mean they'll actually DO that. For instance, I've heard one prediction that the tented line is for experiments; I suspect that's not quite right, but readers here probably know better than I now.

So, 10,000 by February? Only if the lead time for factory installation fits in that window from the time they ordered that equipment and if it's compatible with that outcome (what if the tented line is an older version that works right and the new equipment is a newer version that doesn't work right? Unlikely, but possible), AND if they actually get to 5,000 within the next 2 months. Since that's everything they're trying to do, I suppose it is reasonable to think it is POSSIBLE, but it should be tempered from my point of view because of the factory worker's point of view being too close to it.

Wildcards could be different speeds of different factory engineering.

I worked in various manufacturing factories when I was young, from working as an assembly worker at Fokker in the Netherlands, to the Skill tools factory there, akin to Black and Dekker.
If you think a worker on an assembly line isn't aware of manufacturing levels, I can assure you, you are wrong.

 

[JRP3]

"“They’re out to get me,” Tripp told Jalopnik in a near half-hour interview by phone."

https://jalopnik.com/tesla-leaker-is-looking-forward-to-the-lawsuit-over-all-1827032982

 

[Henchman]

Since Panasonic is Teslas partner in the Gigafactory, does it make sense to load up on their stock as well for the longterm?
Or is GF a separate business entity, and if so, are there stocks available for it as well?