Driver Dave
Member
VW... this gotta hurt.
This might be a glimpse into the future of ICE vehicles as the move to EV expands.
This might be a glimpse into the future of ICE vehicles as the move to EV expands.
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I don't get why these would be new issues from Tesla. The hedge is roughly a call option that Tesla bought already. Payoff from that option will cover the excess stock price above $360 paid in shares or cash. Tesla is not on the hook to make this payment, only the option writer is.
TSLA Option
This mid-Feb call at strike $360 is the closest traded instrument to what the bond option writer is exposed to. Trading at $40/sh, it has delta 0.64. So the hedge should be about 920M/360*0.64 = 1.64M shares, if they are delta hedging. But this is substantially more shares than they would likely need to pay out. For example if the average stock price in Feb is $400, they pay out $102M in cash or 256K shares. So they the option writer should already have more than enough shares on hand.
Well, sure, some hobbyist will custom-build one. After all, there was a new-build steam locomotive in Britain a couple of years ago.The idea that everyone will prefer EV by 2026 is ridiculous.
Timing. It's quite possible the bonds will be paid off with new stock before the hedge delivers stock to Tesla, which would then be classified as "treasury stock". I mean, this has no practical import; treasury shares are not shares outstanding.I don't get why these would be new issues from Tesla. The hedge is roughly a call option that Tesla bought already. Payoff from that option will cover the excess stock price above $360 paid in shares or cash. Tesla is not on the hook to make this payment, only the option writer is.
Am I thinking about the following correctly?
Bondholders convert at 2.77 share pr 1000$ Bond value. (359.87).
if SP is above 359.87, bondholders still get 2.77 share pr, so TSLA doesn't suffer further dilution.
If Tesla hadn't hedged their convertible debt and SP was above 359.87 they would be paying off debt with shares worth more than 359.
BUT - Tesla hedged the convertible bonds by buying call options at 359.87, allowing them to buy up to 5.6 million shares at 359.87.
So; between at a share price between 359.87 and 512.66 Tesla effectively owns 56.000 contracts of 359.87 call options on their own share.
As far as I know Tesla hasnt sold that call options off. The Mar15'19 360 Call option is currently trading at 43$.
Is Tesla sitting on a call option position worth ~240m$ right now?
"In connection with the offering of these notes in March 2014, we entered into convertible note hedge transactions whereby we have the option to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) a total of 5.6 million shares of our common stock at a price of $359.87 per share. The total cost of the convertible note hedge transactions was $524.7 million. In addition, we sold warrants whereby the holders of the warrants have the option to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) 2.2 million shares of our common stock at a price of $512.66 per share for the 2019 Notes and 3.3 million shares of our common stock at a price of $560.64 per share for 2021 Notes. We received $338.4 million in total cash proceeds from the sales of these warrants. Similarly, in connection with the issuance of the additional notes in April 2014, we entered into convertible note hedge transactions and paid a total of $78.7 million. In addition, we sold warrants to purchase initially (subject to adjustment for certain specified events) 0.3 million shares of our common stock at a price of $512.66 per share for the 2019 Notes and 0.5 million shares of our common stock at a price of $560.64 per share for the 2021 Notes. We received $50.8 million in total cash proceeds from the sales of these warrants. Taken together, the purchases of the convertible note hedges and the sales of the warrants are intended to reduce potential dilution and/or cash payments from the conversion of these notes and to effectively increase the overall conversion price from $359.87 to $512.66 per share for the 2019 Notes and from $359.87 to $560.64 per share for the 2021 Notes. As these transactions meet certain accounting criteria, the convertible note hedges and warrants are recorded in stockholders’ equity and are not accounted for as derivatives. The net cost incurred in connection with the convertible note hedge and warrant transactions was recorded as a reduction to additional paid-in capital on the consolidated balance sheet."
I think this is right. To maximize the antidilutive effect, Tesla could buy upto 5.6M shares for little less than $360/share. Before today it had not occurred to me that Tesla would be in such a position. Not only does the hedge safeguard against dilutive effects of a convertible bond, but it could be exploited to antidilutive ends. It all depends on just how much cash Tesla wants to throw at this, which depends on how strong the cash flow is in Q4 and Q1.
I guess there aren't any convertible bond holders at this forum!Whelp, I guess silence from convertible bond holders did not mean Tesla took the "default" option on the convertibles.
According to Bloomberg, for shareholders that convert they will pay them 50% in cash and 50% in stock. Nice show of confidence by Tesla in their cash position but at the same time would strengthen the balance sheet versus paying off 100% in cash. Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
So; between at a share price between 359.87 and 512.66 Tesla effectively owns 56.000 contracts of 359.87 call options on their own share.
As far as I know Tesla hasnt sold that call options off. The Mar15'19 360 Call option is currently trading at 43$.
Is Tesla sitting on a call option position worth ~240m$ right now?
...
I wonder whether Tesla made this decision in order to hedge against a very particular tail risk: a TSLA stock price above $512.66, which is where the "hedges" stop paying off. A full cash payout could have had some cash crunch risks in that case; a stock price of $612.66 would have cost Tesla an extra $256 million. With half-cash payout, a stock price of $612.66 would cost Tesla an extra $128 million.
Many thanks, but obviously he doesn't understand, a lot of people don't, so I'll explain. Plants take in carbon dioxide from the air from which they make their wood. When I burn the wood the carbon dioxide is returned to the air from which it came only a short time ago. When fossil fuel is burned the carbon in the carbon dioxide comes from a place far away, under the ground where it used to not be a part of the surface reservoirs of carbon. That's why burning fossil fuel is causing climate change but not burning wood.
That's a meaningless distinction without a difference. Photosynthesis is the process whereby plants absorb CO2 and emit O2. When you kill a tree to use it's wood as a cooking fuel you abort that environmentally beneficial process. The atmosphere cannot distinguish between CO2 as a by-product from the combustion of recently killed plants or from the combustion of gaseous or liquid detritus of rotting plants that died millenniums ago, just as your electric meter cannot distinguish electrons from what ever source generated (but that doesn't preclude utilities from charging premiums for energy reputedly produced by renewable generation.)
Seems like a fine venue for some EV conversion companyVW... this gotta hurt.
This might be a glimpse into the future of ICE vehicles as the move to EV expands.
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That's a meaningless distinction without a difference. Photosynthesis is the process whereby plants absorb CO2 and emit O2. When you kill a tree to use it's wood as a cooking fuel you abort that environmentally beneficial process. The atmosphere cannot distinguish between CO2 as a by-product from the combustion of recently killed plants or from the combustion of gaseous or liquid detritus of rotting plants that died millenniums ago, just as your electric meter cannot distinguish electrons from what ever source generated (but that doesn't preclude utilities from charging premiums for energy reputedly generated from renewable generation.)
How does OP sailor cook his food with a branch that fell off a tree and was "buried at the bottom of a bog or underground or in a house?"To put this a more precise way, if dead branches fall off a tree, they can:
(1) rot and turn back into CO2
(2) be burned and turn back into CO2
(3) be buried at the bottom of a bog or underground or in a house and NOT turn back into CO2
#3 is better
I respectfully disagree.
I agree that CO2, whatever the source, is CO2. On that much, we do agree.
However, CO2 from burning wood is CO2 that "recently" (last few years or decades) was taken out of the atmosphere by a growing tree and fixed into the structure of the tree. And was then burned to release that CO2 back into the atmosphere. The CO2 in this lifecycle is part of a CO2 lifecycle measured in years or decades. (Which DOES mean, if we're close to the CO2 breaking point, then every incremental source of CO2 in the atmosphere is bad juju). In this sense, CO2 from burning trees is carbon 'neutral'. It isn't neutral at the burning tree level - but its sustainable or neutral on the scale of decades as long as our burn rate is below our forest growing rate (on the scale of decades).
The CO2 from burning fossil fuels though isn't part of a CO2 lifecycle measured in years or decades. The fossil fuel carbon got put away underground millions of years ago. It's been out of circulation for a REALLY REALLY long time, and that's the problem with burning as much fossil fuels as we've burned. Every bit of CO2 from burning fossil fuels over the last few centuries represents "new" carbon to be circulated in the carbon cycle (plants <> atmosphere).
(corrected)
(But by god I want to see them try. Is there any rule against Tesla doing proprietary trading in exchange traded options on their own stock in order to eliminate risk and make money? There probably is a rule against that, isn't there?)
Correct. However the quick release of previously stored fossil fuels by using petroleum products dumps huge amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere which has been out of circulation for millions of years. Burning biomass which would decay and release CO2 anyway is a different matter. Simple example: Grown corn in the summer, which absorbs CO2, burn it in the winter, releasing CO2, grow it again next summer, absorbing CO2, etc.Chemically, C/CO2 (modern or ancient) regardless of the source is identical.
Ah, the point of the hedge in the first place is to hedge the convertible bond. I'm not so sure I want to see Tesla play games with that.(corrected)
Basically, but your math is off. 2.5 million shares worth of call options which probably expire in March, 3.8 million shares worth of call options which probably expire in 2021.
It's all non-transferrable and illiquid, though, so they can't just sell it. Also, the expiration dates don't match with exchange-traded options.
Tesla could effectively turn these into calendar spreads by selling exchange traded options, but they'd have to make the short side expire before the long side. So against the 2019 "hedge" calls, it would have to be a Feb 15 '19 $360, with current bid of $38.55. Selling 25000 contracts of these into the market wouldn't be possible, since there are only 4636 in OI... if it were it would be worth $96/375 million though.
More entertaining is the idea of Tesla selling calls against the 2021 hedges. Again, without accounting for the fact that the OI on Jan 15, 2021 LEAP calls is really too small to do this, I note that the Jan 15 2021 $360s are trading for $102.50/share, and so Tesla's 3.3 million share call option expiring 2021 would nominally be worth $389.5 million. The appetite isn't there for 38000 contracts, however....
(But by god I want to see them try. Is there any rule against Tesla doing proprietary trading in exchange traded options on their own stock in order to eliminate risk and make money? There probably is a rule against that, isn't there?)