If they average 3,000/wk the first quarter, and only 6,000/wk for the rest of the year, we are still over 250,000 cars. In my mind, that is the lowest number I expect for 2018. Could easily be 300,000. Add S and X and we could be over 400,000 total.
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Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Here's a VIN in the 2800s that got delivered before end of quarter: Tesla owner configurations begin
That's the highest VIN number that I heard of for a delivery that got completed in Q4. (Heard something about a VIN in the 3000s but I think that was an assigned VIN, not a delivery).
That's the highest VIN number that I heard of for a delivery that got completed in Q4. (Heard something about a VIN in the 3000s but I think that was an assigned VIN, not a delivery).
Sparky
Member
And yet, several who configured cars in November, still have not taken delivery (myself included). My suspicion is that San Diego and Bay Area non-employees are getting their cars while people in greater Los Angeles area are delayed due to many SpaceX employees still taking delivery.
Total speculation but, just an assumption that average SpaceX worker makes a bit more than average Tesla-Fremont worker or Tesla Sales Associate. The former, configured cars at ~$50k while the latter are waiting for the shorter-range ~$40k options. So, folks like me haven't received a delivery date yet because the SpaceX orders are still being filled. If so, good for Tesla. Less good for me of course.
Either that or Tesla really hasn't delivered more than 1500 this quarter due to continuing bottlenecks, despite the seemingly high VIN count.
Tomorrow I'll contact my DS and try to figure out if any of this speculation is real. All I know is it's been 6 weeks since I sent Tesla the $ to build my Model 3 and haven't even received a VIN.
In my view, it would be really helpful for analysts and members of the media to read the transcript from the Q3 earnings call. Lots of important info, especially around the lack of clarity for Q4 M3 production. Here is a helpful portion (Elon seems to be stating that they will not have a few thousand produced in Q4. So, seems very odd that even folks like Munster are saying projections were at 5,200):
“Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Okay.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
But there's (47:56), if you said okay, what about a few weeks after Q4? I'd say, yeah, definitely. So, it's just going to be very, very – rising very, very sharply at that time.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
To be clear, Elon is not going to provide guidance. He's just giving – you are giving...
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
This is my guess.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Exactly.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
It will be (48:16) vertical climb here, it's like – from one moment to the next (48:22).
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
It sounds like you'll be able to provide some pretty high confidence update on the fourth quarter earnings call.
Jeffrey B. Straubel - Tesla, Inc.
Yes.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
For sure. Yes. Absolutely.
Jeffrey B. Straubel - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Even with the deliveries announcements, we'll have some feedback for you as we mentioned...”
“Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Is that why – I guess, yeah off of a low number but are you getting to a few thousand per week already by the end of this year or did you mean to say that you'll have a few thousand produced in total by the year-end?
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
Oh, no, no. Again, it's really tricky because of that being exponential. If you were to move the calendar date by plus or minus a few weeks, you'd see gigantic differences in weekly output. But what I meant is something like a few thousand units per week at the end of Q4.
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
Okay.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
But there's (47:56), if you said okay, what about a few weeks after Q4? I'd say, yeah, definitely. So, it's just going to be very, very – rising very, very sharply at that time.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
To be clear, Elon is not going to provide guidance. He's just giving – you are giving...
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
This is my guess.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Exactly.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
It will be (48:16) vertical climb here, it's like – from one moment to the next (48:22).
Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.
It sounds like you'll be able to provide some pretty high confidence update on the fourth quarter earnings call.
Jeffrey B. Straubel - Tesla, Inc.
Yes.
Elon Reeve Musk - Tesla, Inc.
For sure. Yes. Absolutely.
Jeffrey B. Straubel - Tesla, Inc.
Yeah.
Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Even with the deliveries announcements, we'll have some feedback for you as we mentioned...”
callmesam
Member
Delivery completed. AMAZING. I'm loading up the truck to get some more shares. If Tesla delivers 250,000 Model 3, they double the size of their fleet in a single year. If they manage to sell 400,000 cars, then the world will be on fire for Tesla.
I'm as convinced as the day I purchased my first shares in 2012 and put $5,000 deposit down on the Model S. It's like "I know something you don't know . . ." The FUD is about to evaporate, and quickly.
Model 3 is a much more affordable car. Autopilot 2 is KILLER. LA to San Diego and back on a single charge.
Magic all around.
I'm as convinced as the day I purchased my first shares in 2012 and put $5,000 deposit down on the Model S. It's like "I know something you don't know . . ." The FUD is about to evaporate, and quickly.
Model 3 is a much more affordable car. Autopilot 2 is KILLER. LA to San Diego and back on a single charge.
Magic all around.
Agree. I’ve seen the progress of AP2 relative to AP1 first-hand. I am really thinking hard about trading in my AP1 S for an AP2-2.5 car.
I suspect I will probably stick with a new S or X, Assuming they do not alter the autopilot stalk too much. I like to control my AP speed and distance on that stalk, especially since I am a right lane driver and have to let cars in from the on-ramp. For now, AP doesn’t have “courtesy” built into it’s algorithm... so if I don’t manually drop the speed down or open the car distance as a car needs to merge (not when they are actually merging, AP does a decent job with this) I would be a total jerk. Looks like that bit of AP control may be harder to change on the fly in a 3 (screen controlled from what I’ve seen).
I received my Model 3 from Marina Del Rey on 12/29. I already have about 400 miles on it. I agree with you. I feel very secure about my TSLA investment. This car will turn the auto industry upside down. It is a frickin' amazing car at any price, it makes any car (other than Tesla) a laughing stock. Yet, I do prefer my Model S for size and ride comfort. I will have my Model S up for sale on ebay starting Friday. Why? Because I plan to buy a new Model S and then I will sell my Model 3 in March.
But there are tons of Marina Del Rey deliveries to non employees. Probably hundreds this past week.
larmor
Active Member
Tesla loses money in each electron it sends out on an email which it cannot recover. I suggest using Ravens...
More Bad News Expected for Tesla
The breakout year for the Model 3 won't happen for until 2019, an analyst says.
Let's hope we don't get back to 240$ levels
The breakout year for the Model 3 won't happen for until 2019, an analyst says.
Let's hope we don't get back to 240$ levels
dc_h
Active Member
I’m not clicking. Volume is on track and I think in Q1.
DragonWatch
Small FootPrint
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Fuddy say what?
Or by breakout do they mean full self autonomy followed by escape from Fremont? Paging Susan Calvin...
"The issue with the bears doing that is that with intent to cause fear, uncertainty and doubt with out actual proof."
here's an article from exactly 1 year ago today:
Tesla Motors Inc: 60% Upside For TSLA Stock In 2017? - BNL Finance
Here Baird says 60% upside because:
-- "Chinese research firm KGI cited channel checks to conclude that Tesla Motors is ramping production and strengthening automation to ensure the company hits its 2nd-half 2017 production target of 100,000 units of the Model 3"
-- "Kallo believes “Tesla Energy” is not priced into TSLA stock and he figures the company can beat Model 3 expectations"
-- "Kallo has an ‘Outperform’ rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $338, which implies upside of nearly 60%. Clearly, Baird and Kallo are very bullish on TSLA stock, and quite frankly, they have reason for optimism.
...
The Gigafactory is complete."
-- "BNL Finance previously concluded that Tesla Energy and the company’s solar roof ambitions could end up being a “game-changer” for TLSA stock."
so, @Reciprocity says: "The issue with the bears doing that is that with intent to cause fear, uncertainty and doubt with out actual proof."
well, let's see... is the Gigafactory "complete"?... was the Solar Roof a "game-changer"?... was Tesla Energy not correctly priced into the stock?... did Tesla deliver 100k M3s?...
NO... none of this happened... did bears make claims that none of that would happen?... YES... was it based on historical performance data... YES... were they right... YES.
and yet, the stock went up 60%.
@Reciprocity : "You bears like to conflate non issues into much more then is there based on made up facts."
is that so?... well, look at the "sentiment" 1 year ago today and the expectations that were supposed to be the driver for the stock... and now look at the facts.
the only thing that bears are wrong about is the stock price... not the company.
3 criterion need to be met for shorts to disappear :
- Huge profits
- Huge margins
- Competitors lagging way behind
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Then myusername will disappear as well.
- Huge profits
- Huge margins
- Competitors lagging way behind
------
Then myusername will disappear as well.
Reciprocity
Active Member
You know why I know none of that matters, because the stock was up 100% during the time period you keep whining about. Increase your short position if you feel it matters.
Reciprocity
Active Member
People have voted with their hard earned dollars, which means they agree with me and not you. So yes, everything is good because the stock is up. We longs believe Tesla will deliver, and you shorts believe they wont. We all have the same data to analyze to determine which is more likely and more people believe I am right then you. It doesnt mean I will be right, but I certainly am a believer. Instead posting dumb forum posts and clearly fudtastic articles, make a cogent, fact based argument as to why im wrong.
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