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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Norway was discussing changing the tax on Teslas last year which would bump the effective price up. That likely drove sales up Q3/Q4 2017 versus Q1/Q2 2017, and may have pulled ahead sales depleting the demand pool in the short term.

And/or they focused on other regions for this quarter.

Tesla is also no dummy, they shift the fire hose where demand is at and they seem to be very agile as it relates to these incentives. The shorts love to act like the lack of incentives mean no sales because demand is pulled forward. But demand being pulled forward happens all the time and every industry everywhere.
 
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LOL.. Adam Jonas things Amazon is going to build gigafactories... hahahaha... I mean come on. The Semi is not joke when it comes to battery cells. Anyone with a napkin and sharpie can do this math. If you build 100,000 semis, its roughly equivalent to 1 million model 3s and up to a full 100GWh gigafactory. Amazon is a beast, and I could see them getting involved in the last mile deliveries, but not in Semis. The only way to make it affordable is to build at a scale of gigafactories and Amazon does not need 100,000 semis a year. They might need that many delivery trucks with drones flaying out the roofs, but not Semis.

Edit: Also, Tesla is not making a delivery truck for a reason. Its already being done. Tesla is not going to solve every mode of transport. They are going to show leadership and show how it can be done and they are going to share patents and hope people pickup the rains on their own. And they have.
 
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What's up with Norway this quarter?

Ships arrive] quite late this quarter in the Benelux (cars for Norway don't pass Tilburg, but still pass one of the Benelux ports be it Zeebrugge, Rotterdam or Antwerp). Some like the Idaho are still underway. Correspondingly late arrival in Norway. I predict a busy 3 weeks for Norwegian deliveries. At the same time a repeat of last quarter is out of the question. As a pretty crude indicator, one Norwegian thread about November/December deliveries had 1020 posts by this time in December. The corresponding February/March thread has only 390 posts. I would not be surprised if Norway 'only' makes half of its deliveries in March compared to December.
 
Ships arrive] quite late this quarter in the Benelux (cars for Norway don't pass Tilburg, but still pass one of the Benelux ports be it Zeebrugge, Rotterdam or Antwerp). Some like the Idaho are still underway. Correspondingly late arrival in Norway. I predict a busy 3 weeks for Norwegian deliveries. At the same time a repeat of last quarter is out of the question. As a pretty crude indicator, one Norwegian thread about November/December deliveries had 1020 posts by this time in December. The corresponding February/March thread has only 390 posts. I would not be surprised if Norway 'only' makes half of its deliveries in March compared to December.
There is also this article from today: Frakter Teslaer med dårlige trailere

Trucks loaded with Tesla have been stopped at/near the border with Sweden. They've been overloaded, have had bad tires/defective lights and one was in an accident. Tesla says the port in Drammen is having capacity issues, so some Teslas are being routed through Sweden.

I think this could mean cars will arrive later in the quarter, and some might slip into Q2.
 
Ships arrive] quite late this quarter in the Benelux (cars for Norway don't pass Tilburg, but still pass one of the Benelux ports be it Zeebrugge, Rotterdam or Antwerp). Some like the Idaho are still underway. Correspondingly late arrival in Norway. I predict a busy 3 weeks for Norwegian deliveries. At the same time a repeat of last quarter is out of the question. As a pretty crude indicator, one Norwegian thread about November/December deliveries had 1020 posts by this time in December. The corresponding February/March thread has only 390 posts. I would not be surprised if Norway 'only' makes half of its deliveries in March compared to December.

Great info, thanks. I'm curious about S/X deliveries this quarter. It's getting more and more difficult to predict each quarter.
 
Don't be so sure. A skateboard pickup chassis is only an aluminum box away from being a delivery truck. And there are companies dedicated to putting those boxes/ cabs on rolling chassis.

Its about margin. Again, Tesla is not in the business of building low margin vehicles. The semi itself is an oddity, but I believe the reason they went with the Semi is two fold. No one else could do it so no one else was doing it. And the shear scale will make every single battery cell cheaper for everything Tesla does. When you need 100GWh just for your Semi, you can build custom, high volume and high speed machines where if you only needed 10GWh, you could never justify the cost of such a complex machine to build the cells. I also believe that Tesla will have a 20%+ margin on the charging, whether they partner and sell them Solar + Battery or install for them and sell them energy for their entire operation. Blended rate will be over 20% margin on just the recharging infrastructure. This will make Tesla the largest utility on the planet by a large margin. Utilities are worth a lot of money and throw off cash like crazy because businesses will be captive customers who cannot really go anywhere else.

Looking at this a different way. Jonas might be doing something interesting here by alluding to the fact that Amazon might be interested in partnership or competing. Its a low key way to say that Tesla is on the right track and could be in the focus of mammoth companies like Amazon, Google and Apple.
 
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Its about margin. Again, Tesla is not in the business of building low margin vehicles. The semi itself is an oddity, but I believe the reason they went with the Semi is two fold. No one else could do it so no one else was doing it. And the shear scale will make every single battery cell cheaper for everything Tesla does. When you need 100GWh just for your Semi, you can build custom, high volume and high speed machines where if you only needed 10GWh, you could never justify the cost of such a complex machine to build the cells. I also believe that Tesla will have a 20%+ margin on the charging, whether they partner and sell them Solar + Battery or install for them and sell them energy for their entire operation. Blended rate will be over 20% margin on just the recharging infrastructure. This will make Tesla the largest utility on the planet by a large margin. Utilities are worth a lot of money and throw off cash like crazy because businesses will be captive customers who cannot really go anywhere else.

Looking at this a different way. Jonas might be doing something interesting here by alluding to the fact that Amazon might be interested in partnership or competing. Its a low key way to say that Tesla is on the right track and could be in the focus of mammoth companies like Amazon, Google and Apple.

Margin can be good percentage wise for an EV chassis, and there is no investment in body/ seat/ lighting or manufacturing. Just need ladder frame plus parts already being made for the pickup. Basically, the chassis would exit the manufacturing line early.
It would go a long way toward toward furthering renewable based transportation, and could to very profitable given the economical benefit to FedEx/ UPS.
 
Margin can be good percentage wise for an EV chassis, and there is no investment in body/ seat/ lighting or manufacturing. Just need ladder frame plus parts already being made for the pickup. Basically, the chassis would exit the manufacturing line early.
It would go a long way toward toward furthering renewable based transportation, and could to very profitable given the economical benefit to FedEx/ UPS.

Just not buying it.. Now if they can also add a very high margin software component. But the truck it self will not have the margins. Charging is another option there. If Tesla is able to put charging (Solar + Battery) everywhere those trucks are dispatched, then maybe that can factor in. The Semi as it is today could be adapted what you are suggesting. One thing im very surprised about is no front motors. The reason is that you could put two motors on the front and have none of the back. Then the back could anything. Meaning, you have it be a small bus, a work van, or even a heavy duty work truck. Certainly adding motors to the back is not hard, but what I am thinking about is what you are alluding to with a single chassis for dozens of configs and let others customize that. Just sell the platform, including software for driver automation, route planning and charging.
 
Just not buying it.. Now if they can also add a very high margin software component. But the truck it self will not have the margins. Charging is another option there. If Tesla is able to put charging (Solar + Battery) everywhere those trucks are dispatched, then maybe that can factor in. The Semi as it is today could be adapted what you are suggesting. One thing im very surprised about is no front motors. The reason is that you could put two motors on the front and have none of the back. Then the back could anything. Meaning, you have it be a small bus, a work van, or even a heavy duty work truck. Certainly adding motors to the back is not hard, but what I am thinking about is what you are alluding to with a single chassis for dozens of configs and let others customize that. Just sell the platform, including software for driver automation, route planning and charging.

Chassis margins can be high for the effort involved
Front wheel drive requires CV joints which have issues on L version Teslas as it is.
For most walk in van applications, the extra height of a solid rear axle is not an issue. Only way to get lower is independent rear suspension which has more wear parts.
 
Just not buying it.. Now if they can also add a very high margin software component. But the truck it self will not have the margins. Charging is another option there. If Tesla is able to put charging (Solar + Battery) everywhere those trucks are dispatched, then maybe that can factor in. The Semi as it is today could be adapted what you are suggesting. One thing im very surprised about is no front motors. The reason is that you could put two motors on the front and have none of the back. Then the back could anything. Meaning, you have it be a small bus, a work van, or even a heavy duty work truck. Certainly adding motors to the back is not hard, but what I am thinking about is what you are alluding to with a single chassis for dozens of configs and let others customize that. Just sell the platform, including software for driver automation, route planning and charging.
Another factor: I imagine autopilot will work very differently with different configurations that changes its length/width, and maybe even height if certain route has low clearance. So whatever configurations needs to be integrated into Tesla's AP SW, and can't be done randomly by any 3rd party.
 
Those are test vehicles. We have no idea if they were testing the supercharging, if they were fully charged when they left, how much were they carrying, etc.
We are not even sure they were supercharging, in the video they are just showing the Semis to people around.

The person who posted thos pics in the Semi thread reported they were there charging with accustom 2-in-to-1 Supercharger junction box.
 
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Another factor: I imagine autopilot will work very differently with different configurations that changes its length/width, and maybe even height if certain route has low clearance. So whatever configurations needs to be integrated into Tesla's AP SW, and can't be done randomly by any 3rd party.

Good point, for city delivery routes, the collision avoidance feature would be useful, autopilot less so.
 
Last week had the most VIN reported


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