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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Sorry to throw cold water on this, but this is a false signal at best and window dressing at worst, just like last quarter.

If they were trying to game it, why not wait until after the delivery report to register a big batch? That would be more impactful for a longer period of time. Understand that’s what they did in Q4, but still doesn’t make sense as a move to support the stock price.
 
If Tesla is gaming. Stock will get eviscerated in a little over a week.

This is why I cannot believe this is "gaming". The Tesla VIN gaming department would know that they get max leverage with their pretending when there is a long time before the next report, so they can be the only signal and have greater weight. Putting out a "fake" block now just confirms they bear narrative they are faking things, while providing no actual benefit.

I see these possibilities:
1) The Tesla gaming department exists and is really stupid. The ramp is going poorly, so they requested a block which (predictably) did not support the stock and will be a huge negative when the report comes out.
2) The ramp is going well and this more or less reflects reality.
3) The guy/gal who requests VIN's doesn't care about our tea leaf reading and just gets too many sometimes. He only gets in trouble if there are too few, so he gets a bunch whenever he thinks about it.

2 or 3 are more likely. 3 is REAL likely.
 
I suspect that the large batch registered in December may have been because of parts stockpiling - they may register the VINs when parts are allocated to certain cars. As production had fallen far behind, they probably had a lot of parts ready to go. I really doubt that it had anything to do with supporting the share price, as there was no point when they had to be honest during the delivery report at the beginning of Q1.
 
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I suspect that the large batch registered in December may have been because of parts stockpiling - they may register the VINs when parts are allocated to certain cars. As production had fallen far behind, they probably had a lot of parts ready to go. I really doubt that it had anything to do with supporting the share price, as there was no point when they had to be honest during the delivery report at the beginning of Q1.

That could be, need to know/ have VIN when dash assembly is made (along with any parts that have VIN engraved/ embedded beyond the door stickers).
 
Guys I see Recalls as registered

VIN 16000 registered
VIN 17000 registered : 5YJ3E1EA5JF017000
VIN 18000 registered : 5YJ3E1EAXJF018000

19000 not, so some number after 18000

You beat me! Well done. I turned down the frequency of the script to every 8 hours after the last batch, thinking there wouldn't be one for a bit. The ramp must be upon us.

Buy before Model3Vin tracker catches up ;)

Haha, it looks like it has had the opposite effect on TSLA. New registrations must be a contraindicator.

Fo realz? Last batch was Tuesday at 2k. Anyone check if dual motor are mixed in?

I always check the logs to see if it found any while searching, and then sometimes I spot check a small percentage of the batch. In this case, I found no dual motors.
 
Most Canadians don’t have all wheel drive vehicles and they don’t need it. Waiting for the AWD itself might jepordize the $14k rebate. Everyone I know with a reso will take first production if given the chance.
I have RWD S, it's ok, but I would like AWD. I still may get RWD, but there, that's my preference.
BTW, less for the winter, more for the acceleration :) There is a diff in the feel
 
This is why I cannot believe this is "gaming". The Tesla VIN gaming department would know that they get max leverage with their pretending when there is a long time before the next report, so they can be the only signal and have greater weight. Putting out a "fake" block now just confirms they bear narrative they are faking things, while providing no actual benefit.

I see these possibilities:
1) The Tesla gaming department exists and is really stupid. The ramp is going poorly, so they requested a block which (predictably) did not support the stock and will be a huge negative when the report comes out.
2) The ramp is going well and this more or less reflects reality.
3) The guy/gal who requests VIN's doesn't care about our tea leaf reading and just gets too many sometimes. He only gets in trouble if there are too few, so he gets a bunch whenever he thinks about it.

2 or 3 are more likely. 3 is REAL likely.
It's worth pointing out that there is no "request VINs from NHTSA" process. NHTSA is purely a go between for the consumer recall info we're all looking at. See outline below:

Consumer puts VIN into search box -> NHTSA sends request to the manufacturer specified in the VIN -> manufacturer database receives query and returns a response -> NHTSA returns response to consumer's browser and doesn't store any of the information.
 
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Tom Randall on Twitter

upload_2018-3-23_9-35-44.png
 
It's worth pointing out that there is no "request VINs from NHTSA" process. NHTSA is purely a go between for the consumer recall info we're all looking at. See outline below:

Consumer puts VIN into search box -> NHTSA sends request to the manufacturer specified in the VIN -> manufacturer database receives query and returns a response -> NHTSA returns response to consumer's browser and doesn't store any of the information.

Interesting. Still, doesn't actually change anything. The VIN guy adds to the TSLA database instead of a NHTSA database. Thought process would remain the same.
 
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Reminds me of the large bucket of VINs registered at the end of Dec. Maybe there is some reason for Tesla to register a lot of VINs at the end of a quarter?

At the end of Dec they had VINs up to 8362, and ended up with 2600 produced, so ~5700 delta between VIN registered vs produced. If we apply that same delta here, then 18300 VIN is equivalent to 12600 produced, or 10k produced in Q1.
Sounds about right for the quarter.
 
4700 new Vins in 3 days is interesting. This is certainly inline with what I was looking for to point to a ramp to 2k/w+. Actually a bit more then I thought, as I guessed 3000 early this week would be needed and we got 2050ish Tuesday and another 2650ish today, so I would call that bullish. For the timeline:

Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter

Could it be a form of VIN stuffing? Maybe. The question for me is when will they do the next batch? One more data point would be very hard to ignore or dismiss as them gaming the system (say, 2000+ before the end of next week). There is no value for gaming the system as whatever gains that occurred in sentiment would be whipped out 2 fold just a few days later and would seriously damage credibility where they need to reestablish credibility the most.
 
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I tend to think the increased registration rate reflects increased production, not a head fake/gaming the system.

One data point -- the gap between VIN registration date and first report of a VIN being assigned has dropped dramatically from 4-5 weeks to 15 days for the March 2 batch (post below dated March 17):

Model 3 VIN 12,2xx reported on tesla.com. Configured 2/28 anyone receive VIN? | Tesla

Bloomberg's chart also showed a VIN of ~11,9xx this morning so it looks like we are already into the VIN batch registered on March 2nd (11,349-12,436).

Seems promising -- time for a new batch of VINs (and invites).

And then from 15 down to 11 days for the March 10 batch (VIN 127xx reported March 21).

I expect they'll assign something in the most recent batch registered March 20 (13844-15885) within the next few days to a week at the outside (7-11 days total).

So most likely, they just needed more VINs. This is not conclusive since there are older VINs out there still being assigned, but together with other signs of a ramp it does suggest this is not a head fake and that we are seeing a significant production increase.

If there already has been a significant ramp as I suspect, the delivery centers should be very busy handing off Model 3s to happy customers between now and March 31.
 
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