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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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I realize that the computer interface provides savings (how much, we don't know). But I doubt that other manufacturers will follow Tesla's lead. I expect to see dedicated tactile buttons/switches on the competitors' offerings (just as they've been for decades) and I think customers will prefer them.
Remember the iMac? Where’s the floppy drive? Just USB ports? Crazy. Hey, that iPhone, with all those chicklet keys it DOESN’T have? How many buttons are on it? Mine has 4.

You need 800 buttons and switches when you can’t figure out a way to do it better with less. Once you have less and you use it that way, you realize all those buttons are just too much. Now, you’ve got your die hard blackberry users, those who prefer all the knobs, levers, and those who ride horses to work. Whatever they like, sure, there’s a market for it, but the Model 3 is like the iMac, the iPhone, an exercise in mechanical minimalism as they simply aren’t required.

I suspect that long term things like voice control will handle a lot of duties, and Tesla is adding features that use those wheels on the steering wheel. I’ve heard some complaints about no speedometer just above the wheel in the Model 3, but most Model 3 owners seem not not care. When you’re using Autopilot for most cruising situations, you don’t need to look at the speedo. Anyhow, just an illustration. I suspect the Y to be minimalistic like the 3. Knobs, switches, and levers will remain in some capacity in the Model S until enough owners clamor for Model 3 styling.
 
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I am just looking at the rate of the current VIN registrations and if they did another 2000 today, it would be more then 3500/w over the past 14 days. That would be awesome but I dont know why they would need so many VINs over such a short period of time.

I don’t think it will be today, but I think we’ll see more probably by Friday.
 
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It works as designed. It stays within the visible lines like it's supposed to. It just shows that the driver needs to pay attention, just like Tesla says. Especially where there's very poor line markings.
It behaves as one would expect after having seen it in action before. Doesn’t don any crazy swerving that could put an alert driver out, it just follows the line “as always”. It may freak out someone who has never experienced AP before, though.
I honestly find surprising how people is reacting to this.
 
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Dow Jones:

BRIEF-Tesla Says Q1 Production Totaled 34,494 Vehicles, A 40 Pct Increase From Q4
April 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc :

* TESLA SAYS Q1 PRODUCTION TOTALED 34,494 VEHICLES, A 40% INCREASE FROM Q4

* IN THE PAST SEVEN DAYS, TESLA PRODUCED 2,020 MODEL 3 VEHICLES

* Q1 DELIVERIES TOTALED 29,980 VEHICLES, OF WHICH 11,730 WERE MODEL S, 10,070 WERE MODEL X, AND 8,180 WERE MODEL 3‍

* IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXPECT TO PRODUCE 2,000 MODEL S AND X VEHICLES AND 2,000 MODEL 3 VEHICLES

* TESLA SAYS OF Q1 PRODUCTION, 24,728 WERE MODEL S AND MODEL X, AND 9,766 WERE MODEL 3

* 4,060 MODEL S AND X VEHICLES WERE IN TRANSIT TO CUSTOMERS AT THE END OF Q1, WHICH WAS 68% HIGHER THAN AT THE END OF Q4 2017‍

* NET MODEL 3 RESERVATIONS REMAINED STABLE THROUGH Q1

* ADDITIONAL 2,040 MODEL 3 VEHICLES WERE ALSO IN TRANSIT TO CUSTOMERS

* ABLE TO DOUBLE WEEKLY MODEL 3 PRODUCTION RATE DURING QUARTER BY ADDRESSING BOTTLENECKS, INCLUDING SEVERAL SHORT FACTORY SHUTDOWNS TO UPGRADE EQUIPMENT

* TESLA SAYS IF RATE OF GROWTH OF MODEL 3 CONTINUES, "IT WILL EXCEED EVEN THAT OF FORD AND THE MODEL T"


Source text: (EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001564590-18-007463) Further company coverage:

(([email protected];))
 
The most important one: "As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines. "

Dow Jones:

BRIEF-Tesla Says Q1 Production Totaled 34,494 Vehicles, A 40 Pct Increase From Q4
April 3 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc :

* TESLA SAYS Q1 PRODUCTION TOTALED 34,494 VEHICLES, A 40% INCREASE FROM Q4

* IN THE PAST SEVEN DAYS, TESLA PRODUCED 2,020 MODEL 3 VEHICLES

* Q1 DELIVERIES TOTALED 29,980 VEHICLES, OF WHICH 11,730 WERE MODEL S, 10,070 WERE MODEL X, AND 8,180 WERE MODEL 3‍

* IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, EXPECT TO PRODUCE 2,000 MODEL S AND X VEHICLES AND 2,000 MODEL 3 VEHICLES

* TESLA SAYS OF Q1 PRODUCTION, 24,728 WERE MODEL S AND MODEL X, AND 9,766 WERE MODEL 3

* 4,060 MODEL S AND X VEHICLES WERE IN TRANSIT TO CUSTOMERS AT THE END OF Q1, WHICH WAS 68% HIGHER THAN AT THE END OF Q4 2017‍

* NET MODEL 3 RESERVATIONS REMAINED STABLE THROUGH Q1

* ADDITIONAL 2,040 MODEL 3 VEHICLES WERE ALSO IN TRANSIT TO CUSTOMERS

* ABLE TO DOUBLE WEEKLY MODEL 3 PRODUCTION RATE DURING QUARTER BY ADDRESSING BOTTLENECKS, INCLUDING SEVERAL SHORT FACTORY SHUTDOWNS TO UPGRADE EQUIPMENT

* TESLA SAYS IF RATE OF GROWTH OF MODEL 3 CONTINUES, "IT WILL EXCEED EVEN THAT OF FORD AND THE MODEL T"


Source text: (EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001564590-18-007463) Further company coverage:

(([email protected];))
 
So glad so glad.
You and me both.


EDIT: It has been speculated in the previous weeks that the convenient FUD stories (including Moody's downgrade) were artificial to create a buying opportunity for insiders that KNEW about the delivery numbers. This is imho now confirmed.

You could say we all could have predicted it easily, but hindsight is 20-20. There was discussion in the right direction, yes, but nobody knew for sure we would be up after Q1 delivery report.

I find it really appalling that small investors get wrecked because of big parties with deep pockets and insider knowledge.
 
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9,766 were Model 3 ... this number by itself is really bad, worse than the 1K/wk exit rate in previous quarter.
However, the Shorts/FUD piled on so much crap for past few weeks like bankwptcy etc etc, and now none of it stuck. So kind of a relief rally based on facts now.

Hope the VINs and deliveries keep increasing in upcoming weeks
 
This is significant.

Tesla continues to target a production rate of approximately 5,000 units per week in about three months, laying the groundwork for Q3 to have the long-sought ideal combination of high volume, good gross margin and strong positive operating cash flow. As a result, Tesla does not require an equity or debt raise this year, apart from standard credit lines.
 
At the same time saying : "don't do that then" isn't necessarily a good defense. I work in automation making stuff move that can easily kill. We can't just say to operators : "don't cross the yellow line", we must actively guard that they don't cross the line (and guard the guard as well). And if they still do cross the line despite being told not to, it is our fault if that harms them. Obviously there is a balance. You can't guard against everything. But at some point, some regulator is going to say : "but you could guard against this kind of misuse of your design". And if that happens after a major accident, it's too late. I am hoping Tesla is working on using the interior camera on the Model 3 as a high priority to help customers use Autopilot responsibly. That would be a major step forward.
By that argument, a normal car with no assistive devices has unlimited liability for the company that makes it. The operator can steer it off a cliff, directly into a barrier, at oncoming traffic, etc. and the vehicle will do nothing to prevent it! All of these things have happened with actual cars with actual drivers so it is totally predictable that it will happen and known by every manufacturer, but automakers have not solved these problems. Shame on them! They should have stopped selling cars that actually move decades ago in order to maximize safety.

Or you can take the reasonable view that the operator has the responsibility to operate the car properly and recognize that when they don't it is their responsibility.
 
I feel like the press release is better for the bears...

First, Tesla subtly moving the goal posts again. They didn't report cars made during the last 7 days of the quarter, just "the past 7 days," including April 1 and 2. They also dropped a hard commitment for 5k/week by the end of Q2, now giving a vague "about 3 months."

Second, Model S/X down significantly year over year. Tesla needed these to be up in order to keep generating revenue.

Third, but Tesla again undermined its own credibility from the Q4 release, where they "extrapolated 1k/week" and yet ended the quarter with only 9766. Is it fair to say Tesla won't break 20k total this quarter?

They burned a record amount of cash, with losses likely approaching 1B or more. I think the stock price will come back down.

I'm still short through earnings.
 
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