General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Waiting4M3]

As promised, I reworked my chart on VIN assignments now we have a week more data. The data range is from March 8th till today, 1 day shy of 4 weeks. View attachment 291528

For each day, I graph the maximum VIN assigned that day (green), the minimum VIN assigned (red) and the average of all VINs assigned (blue). In addition I added the trend lines for each series.

The green line (maximum VIN assigned) tells us something about line speed : how fast do model 3s roll of the line. That rate over the given period is from 9400 to 15300, or just over 1500/week. The assumption is that each top VIN represents a car that goes through quality control exceptionally fast and needs no rework. Ie, that car is nearly immediatly after production complete available for customer assignment. R square is .9 or a good fit.

The blue line (average VIN assigned) tells us something about production speed where production includes regular quality control and rework. This rate is from 8000 to 12200 or 1100/week. R square is .85 or a reasonable good fit

The red line (lowest VIN assigned) tells us something about quality control issues. How slow is Tesla in reworking cars that don't pass quality control on the one hand. The spread of this line with the green line tells us if Tesla has sufficient capacity to rework cars as they roll of the line. This rate goes from 6300 to 8500 or just below 600/week. R square is .3 so not really a good fit.

My conclusion : the run up to 2000/week was recently enough that it doesn't yet show in the VIN assignment numbers. Rework and quality control is growing but because production rate is growing as well, it's too early to tell if this is sign of a significant backlog, especially with such a weak trendline.

I wonder for the blue line, if it may be better to use median, or use avg of the middle portion of the VIN distribution, say between 25-75 (or 10-90) percentiles, thus excluding the skewing effect of lower VINs from rework, which belongs to a different statistical distribution from the main body.

The reason I think this is that if a car is reworked, it's taking a spot in the production line and preventing a new VIN from getting started, so the impact of rework is already reflected in the new VIN #s that are starting in the line. If we then average the rework VIN with the new VINs, we may be double counting its effect.

 

[elasalle]

Not sure if you are asking in general or specific to Model T. All car companies have a ramp on a new model. Avoids building too many cars that may need rework and allows them to add complexity stepwise. No matter how much you test and prototype there are always issues to sort out. The Japanese perfected a model of mixed production where they mix the old with the new and slowly add more new. Avoids loosing revenue and ramp the new model. The ramp slope will depend on the "newness" of the design.. A completely new model may ramp over 6-12 months where a refresh might be a month or 2. Most will hold back the inventory for a sale launch date.

Tesla can make this growth claim as there has not been a new car company in a long time and they are starting from a relatively small base of production.

For perspective here is the Ford Model T ramp. If you put the Model S start in 2012=1909 they are a little behind this, but should catch up with the Model 3. Ford just built one model for this time.

1909 10,666
1910 19,050
1911 34,858
1912 68,773
1913 170,211
1914 202,667
1915 308,162
1916 501,462
1917 735,020
1918 664,076
1919 498,342
1920 941,042

Ford Model T - Wikipedia

Thanks.
The ramp slope will depend on the "newness" of the design.. A completely new model may ramp over 6-12 months where a refresh might be a month or 2 ... helped me understand
~ Cheers.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Not sure if you are asking in general or specific to Model T. All car companies have a ramp on a new model. Avoids building too many cars that may need rework and allows them to add complexity stepwise. No matter how much you test and prototype there are always issues to sort out. The Japanese perfected a model of mixed production where they mix the old with the new and slowly add more new. Avoids loosing revenue and ramp the new model. The ramp slope will depend on the "newness" of the design.. A completely new model may ramp over 6-12 months where a refresh might be a month or 2. Most will hold back the inventory for a sale launch date.

Tesla can make this growth claim as there has not been a new car company in a long time and they are starting from a relatively small base of production.

For perspective here is the Ford Model T ramp. If you put the Model S start in 2012=1909 they are a little behind this, but should catch up with the Model 3. Ford just built one model for this time.

1909 10,666
1910 19,050
1911 34,858
1912 68,773
1913 170,211
1914 202,667
1915 308,162
1916 501,462
1917 735,020
1918 664,076
1919 498,342
1920 941,042

Ford Model T - Wikipedia

In a way one can consider the M3 production line (Alien Dreadnaught V0.5) as part of the "new design". If they can achieve 5k/wk in 3 months it will be exactly 12 months since July 2017 production launch. Considering the complexity of AD V0.5, it's very impressive. Looking foward to MY, the car may be a new design but the production line could be viewed as a "refresh", and could ramp faster because of that. I can't wait to see Tesla start building MY, M3 ramp is so 2017, bring on 2019 already.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Your playbook is so predictable, production > delivery because Tesla sold off ~6000 old inventory (read showroom) cars in Q4, and now they're restocking them. You're not even making me spend any time to research and refute this. It's already been posted all over TMC and everyone know it. Try again.

Unfortunately I think this will be a short argument for the next 3 months, because not everyonw can connect the dots about Q4 inventory and current replenishing. If you just look at deliveries people see a clear miss. So I think it's worth repeating over and over ;-)

 

[bdy0627]

In a way one can consider the M3 production line (Alien Dreadnaught V0.5) as part of the "new design". If they can achieve 5k/wk in 3 months it will be exactly 12 months since July 2017 production launch. Considering the complexity of AD V0.5, it's very impressive. Looking foward to MY, the car may be a new design but the production line could be viewed as a "refresh", and could ramp faster because of that. I can't wait to see Tesla start building MY, M3 ramp is so 2017, bring on 2019 already.

My brokerage account can't handle another ramp quite yet (and neither can Tesla). Let's get this one to 5,000 first please.

 

[ZsoZso]

I have one honest question to our resident Care Bears who have been so nice to us all year to warn us about the possibility of this major dip:

Have you covered your TSLA shorts today ?

You know, it is best to quit while you are ahead!
I wouldn't want to see you nice people cry when the SP goes back to north of 300.
So I'm playing the good samaritan and looking out for the good fortune of the shorts: take your profits while you are ahead!

ps: This IS an advice

 

[ggr]

Mod: Moved spelling posts to Grammar Misteaks, Spelling Misteaks, and Bad Puns :). Also hoping that we won't have an "ignore storm" any time soon. If you see people speaking to ghosts, you can either disregard the reply, or click the "show ignored content", or make a reasoned reply to the reply without knowing the original context. Asking to be told the context sorta defeats the purpose. --ggr.

Note: while looking up that link, I realized that somewhere along the line, someone partially corrected the thread title... it used to be "Grammer Misteaks, Speling Misteaks, and Bad Puns." ;-)

 

[AZRI11]

Trump putting tariffs on Chinese flamthrowers. This is not a joke. Please for the love of god elon, don't go on a Twitter war with trump.

 

[sundaymorning]

This is the definition of a relief rally. Under plan, but better than all the bears worst prognostications. Hitting 2000 for last week and unexpectedly for the coming week is huge and having Elon take over line engineering gives much more credence to building momentum toward 5000 weekly and beyond.
One profitable quarter and it will prove to many that the short thesis is wrong. Hide the cutlery folks, uncle Charlie and Moundtana and many others are not going down without every ounce off hate and spittle at their immense disposal. Amazon lightened up on investments one quarter to show what profit margins could look like if they were satisfied with lower growth. Tesla might just do that in Q3 or 4 and then start spending for semi, 10,000 3’s per week, Roadster and Y.

One profitable quarter and institutions will loan Tesla whatever it needs to build Y, Semi, Roadster, GFs & more. This is why Elon isn’t going to raise money anytime soon. He knows the stock is way undervalued while profits are just around the corner, 5-6 months away folks. I’ll need to devise a game plan to scoop up shares because the market won’t wait till Elon announces positive cash flow.

 

[sundaymorning]

Why can’t an experienced car company like GM reliably ramp the Bolt production beyond 500 cars a week? They’ve had over a year for the ramp, and this small upstart called Tesla is already outselling them on each of their offerings versus GM’s single offering of the Bolt? Is GM on the decline? Can they no longer manufacture cars in volume? Answers inside my clickbait article..... Man, I should write articles for CNBC and Motor Trend.

That’s easy, demand for the Bolt isn’t there. It’s a Bolt for crying out loud. Even the name is weird.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

My general sense is that today’s production report shows that Model 3 production is trending on a good path.

I also note that the report did not really sway bulls or bears either way. Personally, I am saddened at the sheer amount of nastiness that continues here, although it is not surprising.

 

[Yuri_G]

Just a couple of rough calculations from the InsideEVs monthly numbers. Model 3 growth in 2018 is around 40% month over month. At that rate Tesla will deliver over 2.5k per week in June and over 5k in August. A conservative estimate and delivery doesn't equal production, but that may give a little insight on when the stock could start moving.

 

[RobStark]

Trump putting tariffs on Chinese flamthrowers. This is not a joke. Please for the love of god elon, don't go on a Twitter war with trump.

Good thing none of Elon's companies sell those.

Anyways, there is a hearing May 15 with business leaders to discuss the matter.

Any company importing a limited number can get them in ASAP.

BTW The Boring Co sells "not a flamethrower" torches.

 

[MattEnth]

Have you covered your TSLA shorts today

No, I absolutely will not cover until after the Q1 report (or if the stock somehow reaches 430).

I believe that Tesla will post record losses without breaking 3k Model 3s/week.

I'm a little suspicious of Autopilot and think there's a small chance that the DoT or California shut it off. Or another accident. There are enough YouTube videos and reports out there that it seems a little fishy. But it's not part of the thesis. I do agree that Tesla generally does a good job of informing users about what autopilot actually is and what it isn't.

The bear story is all about cash and what it means for Tesla. If they're down to 2.6B, they're going to get a lot of questions about financing the Semi, the Model Y, the Roadster, etc., which will prompt further questions about timeline.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

No, I absolutely will not cover until after the Q1 report (or if the stock somehow reaches 430).

It’s your money. You’re free to burn it however you want.

 

[McMuggets]

Thought I’d post this here. Just imagine if this was a Model X... it’d be front page of the Wall Street Journal and get airtime on CNN

BMW Nightmare: Man’s $70K Dream Car Severed His Thumb

 

[defc0n]

No, I absolutely will not cover until after the Q1 report (or if the stock somehow reaches 430).

I believe that Tesla will post record losses without breaking 3k Model 3s/week.

I'm a little suspicious of Autopilot and think there's a small chance that the DoT or California shut it off. Or another accident. There are enough YouTube videos and reports out there that it seems a little fishy. But it's not part of the thesis. I do agree that Tesla generally does a good job of informing users about what autopilot actually is and what it isn't.

The bear story is all about cash and what it means for Tesla. If they're down to 2.6B, they're going to get a lot of questions about financing the Semi, the Model Y, the Roadster, etc., which will prompt further questions about timeline.

I'm expecting TSLA to take a hit come Q1 earnings. However, I'd be extremely surprised if it falls below 243-245 support. You presumably did well and now you're getting greedy. Especially when taking into consideration opportunity cost where your money will likely do better elsewhere from now on in the short to medium term.

 

[Subhuman]

s also "about 3 months," not "by the end of Q2." That's a much softer commitment that he will get pressed on during the earnings call.

"about 3 month" and "end of quarter 2" are two materially different statements. one is a hard timeline, the other on e is soft. tesla doesnt even keep its hard deadlines, take a guess what will happen with the soft one..

In my best Vin Diesel voice: “I live my life one Quarter at a time.”

 

[Icer]

Why can’t an experienced car company like GM reliably ramp the Bolt production beyond 500 cars a week?

Requires 500 buyers.
Every car made gets sold.
Not next year.
GTFO

Somebody please take this car?
Bear Top Five
*
WOT:
builders, please:
Bolt batts into (crop of currently Extremely)
Cheap Leafs


And skirts.
Brig back skirts please.
*
Leaves?

*
Get rich:
Subaru 2 camera stereovision bolton gadget
Two camera, cellphone, app?
If it detects something,
Phone buzzes, lights, vibrates whatever.

line out to the 500watt woofer if you need it loud.
Really.
No need to tie into cars sys.

Call it the: HEY STUPID
And "ExtraEyes" for the HSC special.

*
Skirts, well the obvious,
but also This,
but not exactly this. Like this.

But this would work, really.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

No, I absolutely will not cover until after the Q1 report (or if the stock somehow reaches 430).

I believe that Tesla will post record losses without breaking 3k Model 3s/week.

I'm a little suspicious of Autopilot and think there's a small chance that the DoT or California shut it off. Or another accident. There are enough YouTube videos and reports out there that it seems a little fishy. But it's not part of the thesis. I do agree that Tesla generally does a good job of informing users about what autopilot actually is and what it isn't.

The bear story is all about cash and what it means for Tesla. If they're down to 2.6B, they're going to get a lot of questions about financing the Semi, the Model Y, the Roadster, etc., which will prompt further questions about timeline.

I admire your conviction, but have you really been reading this forum for a "long" time? Because you're making a pretty novice mistake for a short on this board. You shorted and had the good fortune of catching TSLA on a general downturn combined with a model X death and model 3 production issues.

Now you're getting greedy like Mark Spiegel (aka logical thought) during the battery fires - he was well ahead back then but held short expecting a TSLA bankruptcy. He then dollar-cost averaged until the Solar City merger crash gave him another profitable window. But again he held short expecting further losses. A few months after the merger succeeded and the stock recovered he was forced to cover by his broker.