General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Jonathan Hewitt]

hmm... so Lora is saying that Curt, of all people, was banned today for having sent her a "nastygram" in the past ("awhile back" in her exact words... leading to action today after Curt simply shared the Tesla blog with her via twitter???). obviously, I'm not in a position to know that Lora's asserted reason for the ban is false, but, having read Curt's posts for over 5 years, this sounds about as improbable as things get.

I was giving Lora the benefit of the doubt and was assuming she was a "good person just trying to do her job." I even called her "our friend Lora."

With this recent behavior she has been downgraded in my mind to "incompetent and clueless." It is possible that Curt's formal prose and use of facts confused her and made her think it was a "nastygram" but that would further reinforce her new classification to me.

It's also possible she is just lazy but I need more data before I reach a firm conclusion.

 

[TradingInvest]

I was giving Lora the benefit of the doubt and was assuming she was a "good person just trying to do her job." I even called her "our friend Lora."

With this recent behavior she has been downgraded in my mind to "incompetent and clueless." It is possible that Curt's formal prose and use of facts confused her and made her think it was a "nastygram" but that would further reinforce her new classification to me.

It's also possible she is just lazy and but I need more data before I reach a firm conclusion.

Don't be too nice. Most likely she is paid. Everyone loves money.

 

[larmor]

Don't be too nice. Most likely she is paid. Everyone loves money.

Not people shorting TSLA

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Don't be too nice. Most likely she is paid. Everyone loves money.

Most likely, but I like to assume the best and work down from there. Don't worry, at this rate she will easily make the next rating down very soon.

 

[SteveG3]

Elon Musk's Boring Company raises $112.5 million for hyperloop

 

[kbM3]

Lora K's FUDticle seems to have done its job of diverting attention from increasing signs that the ramp continues.

A couple data points from the spreadsheet:

Reported weekly VINs in the last 12 weeks
Week Reported VINs
28 Jan - 03 Feb 2018 46
04 Feb - 10 Feb 2018 34
11 Feb - 17 Feb 2018 31
18 Feb - 24 Feb 2018 11
25 Feb - 03 Mar 2018 22
04 Mar - 10 Mar 2018 102
11 Mar - 17 Mar 2018 89
18 Mar - 24 Mar 2018 99
25 Mar - 31 Mar 2018 119
01 Apr - 07 Apr 2018 164
08 Apr - 14 Apr 2018 209
15 Apr - 21 Apr 2018 46

Reported monthly invites in the last 6 months
Month Reported invites
Nov 2017 82
Dec 2017 169
Jan 2018 344
Feb 2018 650
Mar 2018 713
Apr 2018 669 (1254/month rate)

Sample rate for VINs in Q1 was .0677, which translates to a production rate of 3087/month over the past week (209/.0677). Even assuming the sample rate has increased since Q1 due to higher participation the trend over the past few weeks looks very promising and together with other information suggests to me that production is now well above 2000/wk. Hopefully we get an update during the ER in a couple weeks.

It is completely insane. The ramp really seems to be happening. The fundamentals of this stock are taking off. It is just unbelievable that the unrelenting attacks are able to keep the stock depressed to the extent they do.

 

[SPadival]

Maybe he implied that she isn’t the best reporter in the world?

Or at least the thinnest skinned reporter I have seen in the world. I did not even mention/reply to her. Just added her to my #TSLASHORTS reading list on twitter.

Also, she claims she blocks people if they don't post interesting stuff!! Hasn't she heard of the mute button??

Anyway, she will go away in a quarter or two as the click baits stop working. However, please lets hasten that process by ignoring her and not give her more clicks (I knew of the article before it was posted here, but resisted posting about it).

 

[elasalle]

3 more M3s to go ...

 

[sundaymorning]

Or at least the thinnest skinned reporter I have seen in the world. I did not even mention/reply to her. Just added her to my #TSLASHORTS reading list on twitter.

Also, she claims she blocks people if they don't post interesting stuff!! Hasn't she heard of the mute button??

Anyway, she will go away in a quarter or two as the click baits stop working. However, please lets hasten that process by ignoring her and not give her more clicks (I knew of the article before it was posted here, but resisted posting about it).

Seeing that some of us here are fighting back and trolling her makes feel much better to be honest. I think the best thing to do is if you choose to click on something and read it, then at least take the time to post a comment and leave. That way your comment stays and helps the cause. Being silent really doesn’t help during times like these. Even Tesla has to fight back every now and then when the FUD gets nasty.

Just think of it this way, it’s your stock, your money and your Tesla. If you like others taking your hard earned money during times like these, then it’s your choice not to post a comment or standup for yourself. That goes with being here or anywhere else.. as far as trolls here, don’t feed them..

 

[Starno]

Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

Hopefully the ramp will see another step like after the Feb shutdown

 

[elasalle]

Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

Glass Half Full -
Either
1.Grohmann is online, The current Production line could not keep up with Battery Production Rates, so they need to boost the output
OR 2. AWD will now be in the mix.
OR Both.

 

[elasalle]

View attachment 294723

3 more M3s to go ...

The spreadsheet now shows April production at 423, the same as for March.

 

[Drax7]

Tesla Is Temporarily Shutting Down Model 3 Production. Again.

That may explain the front running today

 

[Mrr82]

That may explain the front running today

The report of producing 760 in a day might hold more weight now. Knowing a 4-5 day shutdown was coming they might have given it an extra surge to crank through extra in advance.

 

[30seconds]

Shorts are running out of room. As far as I can tell

1. yellow!!! (No, it doesn’t matter if Tesla has better safety performance than GM & Toyota)

2. Stopping production is a clear sign that they can’t build the Model 3

3. Stopping production is a clear sign that they have built too many Model 3 since everyone knows all the 400,000 orders have been cancelled

4. An automotive executive told me that Elon sux

 

[Time]

Shorts are running out of room. As far as I can tell

1. yellow!!! (No, it doesn’t matter if Tesla has better safety performance than GM & Toyota)

2. Stopping production is a clear sign that they can’t build the Model 3

3. Stopping production is a clear sign that they have built too many Model 3 since everyone knows all the 400,000 orders have been cancelled

4. An automotive executive told me that Elon sux

Yeah...the color yellow cost us $10 today.

Parts of a car being outside of the factory cost us $10 on Friday.

Tomorrow a scheduled production upgrade will cost us $20.

Wednesday will cost us another $10 as more stop-losses are triggered.

Thursday will be a head-fake break-even day that started off bad.

And Friday will be option wipeout day and we close at another 52-week low.

Investing in this company and looking at the stock price is depressing.

 

[MattEnth]

I would expect 2H18 total net income to add up to a cool billion. Interesting times ahead.

Just insane... Don't believe this.

I know I'm a few days late, but this tweet really is just way across the line:

Elon Musk on Twitter

This is why the SEC is investigating Tesla. You shouldn't be CEO of a 50B+ public company and give guidance like "will be profitable & cash flow positive in Q3 & Q4" via tweet. Especially if that guidance is not true or otherwise uninformed.

On the short side, the Model 3 shutdown today is mostly irrelevant. And the safety report is ridiculous.

But that tweet is just reprehensible. The SEC angle was never part of my short logic, but I'm now starting to see it.

 

[theschnell]

Yeah...the color yellow cost us $10 today.

Parts of a car being outside of the factory cost us $10 on Friday.

Tomorrow a scheduled production upgrade will cost us $20.

Wednesday will cost us another $10 as more stop-losses are triggered.

Thursday will be a head-fake break-even day that started off bad.

And Friday will be option wipeout day and we close at another 52-week low.

Investing in this company and looking at the stock price is depressing.

Dude chill!

 

[Bobfitz1]

China, due to excess authoritarianism, is going to have a violent coup sooner or later; the system is not stable.

How is the Chinese political system not stable? Close to 30 years after Tiananmen Square massacre the Party holds near total power and is eagerly supporting facial recognition and other AI technologies to head off and suppress any last bits of resistance. It's now recognized in foreign policy circles that long term prosperity within China and the middle class so created, has not weakened authoritarianism and begun to move towards greater autonomy for citizens and some democracy.
When is this violent coup likely to take place?