General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[MattEnth]

AP through Yahoo - today: Get ready for the most expensive driving season in years
WSJ - this afternoon: Surging Fuel Demand Prompts Marathon Petroleum’s $23 Billion Deal

I'd love to understand these a bit more.

How exactly do rising gas prices impact Tesla?

A rudimentary analysis indicates that the average American spent $1400 on gasoline in 2016, and that consumption went down in 2017. Even if gas prices doubled, do you really think that an additional $1400 in annual spend is going to prompt the purchase of a $50k+ car?

I just don't think ordinary Americans are evaluating car purchases while at the gas pump.

 

[geneclean55]

VIN 193xx showed up, blue with 18" wheels

View attachment 297907

Yep. Looks like Canadians get to pull their hair out for a little longer

 

[Starno]

The only thing that is kinda annoying is why it's already been 15 days that highest Vin is in 20 XXX.

 

[oneday]

I'd love to understand these a bit more.

How exactly do rising gas prices impact Tesla?

A rudimentary analysis indicates that the average American spent $1400 on gasoline in 2016, and that consumption went down in 2017. Even if gas prices doubled, do you really think that an additional $1400 in annual spend is going to prompt the purchase of a $50k+ car?

I just don't think ordinary Americans are evaluating car purchases while at the gas pump.

I think ordinary Americans are and will. I don’t think it’s the mathematical excercise that it can and should be. But I think they notice the $40 once a week or more that they have to spend at the pump. If they had an avenue that would save them money without sacrificing the look and usability of their current car they would. Tesla meets that requirement in everything but price at this point and soon it will be cost competitive as well.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

How exactly do rising gas prices impact Tesla?

Financial incentives shape behavior. The higher the price of gas, the greater the incentive. Obviously, this won’t cause every driver to switch immediately to EVs— it’s a marginal effect— but it will persuade some people who are currently on the fence.

 

[defc0n]

I'd love to understand these a bit more.

How exactly do rising gas prices impact Tesla?

A rudimentary analysis indicates that the average American spent $1400 on gasoline in 2016, and that consumption went down in 2017. Even if gas prices doubled, do you really think that an additional $1400 in annual spend is going to prompt the purchase of a $50k+ car?

I just don't think ordinary Americans are evaluating car purchases while at the gas pump.

The term “ordinary American” doesn’t mean anything to me. Obviously lower priced Teslas will come to market, but even absent of that...

For those that ARE in the market for a $50k car, cost savings over time do matter to them still, very much so. A $50k ICE vs. a $50k EV is a no brainer to me. That price point is NOT a trivial percent of the auto market.

 

[ggr]

I think ordinary Americans are and will. I don’t think it’s the mathematical excercise that it can and should be. But I think they notice the $40 once a week or more that they have to spend at the pump. If they had an avenue that would save them money without sacrificing the look and usability of their current car they would. Tesla meets that requirement in everything but price at this point and soon it will be cost competitive as well.

It's also an exercise in probability. It's easy for someone eg. @MattEnth to say "I wouldn't buy a $50k car to save $200/month on gas." Maybe 8 of his best friends would say the same thing. But maybe 1 person in 10 will do the arithmetic and decide that, indeed, the total cost of ownership matters to them, and goes ahead. Since even 1/10th of the Corolla/Camry/BMW 3/Audi 4/Merc C market is more than TSLA can produce, I think it might make a difference.

 

[Reciprocity]

Sorry @ggr but I am @pissed. You can ban me if you want. But you people need to get off your collective arses and get on twitter. You are living in a bubble/echo chamber where most of the opinions are just bouncing around the bubble. TMC is awesome and you should never stop coming here and supporting the advertisers. But you people need get on twitter and to start defending the honor of reality and facts. Forget Tesla, forget EVs, just get on Twitter and counter the crap storm that is $TSLA. These people want Tesla dead. Elon was right. They want Fremont swallowed up by an earthquake and worse. They lie for a living and their goal is nothing more then to make it impossible for Tesla to achieve their mission. Granted, not everyone agrees the mission is needed, but everyone likes clean air and breathing.

There are a small group of us, but we cannot counter all the FUD without you. There are a lot of people on this forum that are much smarter then I am. More creative and way more knowledgeable about all things EV, Solar and Renewables. I know, because I learned most of what I know here. So get off your arses and get on Twitter.. specifically TweetDeck and do a search for $tsla. Add it as a column and commence to countering the FUD with facts! Always facts! Most of the time, FUDsters just post a random series of cuss words and some lies about Tesla with no facts. Simply ask them for Proof. Always include $TSLA in your tweets. Feel free to follow @Rec1pr0city and checkout my timeline for some tips. There are also people like @ValueAnalyst1 and @barkshmemgol (sp) who both inspired me to fight the FUD. In just the last few weeks we have added many soldiers to our ranks, but we need more. Its critical to counter FUD with facts and call them to account. Require them to provide proof and hound them to the ends of the earth to provide that proof. Most of the time they are passing along opinions as facts and deceiving many investors who are at every increasing numbers, increasing their short positions. These poor fools do not know what they are doing. As we all know, its a bad idea to bet against Elon. Not because he is some mythical creature but because he is right.

 

[ggr]

Sorry @ggr but I am @pissed. You can ban me if you want.

Ha. No ban in sight. At least not for this.

But you people need to get off your collective arses and get on twitter. You are living in a bubble/echo chamber where most of the opinions are just bouncing around the bubble. TMC is awesome and you should never stop coming here and supporting the advertisers. But you people need get on twitter and to start defending the honor of reality and facts. Forget Tesla, forget EVs, just get on Twitter and counter the crap storm that is $TSLA. These people want Tesla dead. Elon was right. They want Fremont swallowed up by an earthquake and worse. They lie for a living and their goal is nothing more then to make it impossible for Tesla to achieve their mission. Granted, not everyone agrees the mission is needed, but everyone likes clean air and breathing.

There are a small group of us, but we cannot counter all the FUD without you. There are a lot of people on this forum that are much smarter then I am. More creative and way more knowledgeable about all things EV, Solar and Renewables. I know, because I learned most of what I know here. So get off your arses and get on Twitter.. specifically TweetDeck and do a search for $tsla. Add it as a column and commence to countering the FUD with facts! Always facts! Most of the time, FUDsters just post a random series of cuss words and some lies about Tesla with no facts. Simply ask them for Proof. Always include $TSLA in your tweets. Feel free to follow @Rec1pr0city and checkout my timeline for some tips. There are also people like @ValueAnalyst1 and @barkshmemgol (sp) who both inspired me to fight the FUD. In just the last few weeks we have added many soldiers to our ranks, but we need more. Its critical to counter FUD with facts and call them to account. Require them to provide proof and hound them to the ends of the earth to provide that proof. Most of the time they are passing along opinions as facts and deceiving many investors who are at every increasing numbers, increasing their short positions. These poor fools do not know what they are doing. As we all know, its a bad idea to bet against Elon. Not because he is some mythical creature but because he is right.

A bit of off-topic, but I do almost no social media, for a reason. As a professional security person and cryptographer, I once thought that something like Facebook would be a great way to enable people to do a PGP-style Web of Trust. (Not going into it but look here if you don't know what I mean). Facebook was pretty new at the time. So I started to look at their app interface specification, and realized within a day or two that it was completely impossible to protect privacy in that framework. So I unsubscribed and blocked the account. Basically, what I had observed is exactly what Cambridge Analytica exploit. It's built into the system.

Anyway, what little time I have spare at the moment is going into trying to keep this little corner of TMC a bit saner than it was last year. But I was, indeed, thinking about joining twitter. You pushed me over the edge. You will be the second person I follow, after Elon. We'll see whether I can be useful and contribute, or run out of time.

 

[JRP3]

But you people need to get off your collective arses and get on twitter. You are living in a bubble/echo chamber where most of the opinions are just bouncing around the bubble.

I put my time in at Seeking Alpha, back when it was being linked by Yahoo and many others as a "news source", and John Petersen was in full on FUD mode bashing everything EV and Tesla. Most of the insanity we are seeing on Twitter is meaningless babble which will have no effect on the company and provides zero insight into my investment strategy. At this point Tesla's future is in Tesla's hands, all the tweets in the world, other than from Elon, will not change that.

 

[2virgule5]

Ha. No ban in sight. At least not for this.



A bit of off-topic, but I do almost no social media, for a reason. As a professional security person and cryptographer, I once thought that something like Facebook would be a great way to enable people to do a PGP-style Web of Trust. (Not going into it but look here if you don't know what I mean). Facebook was pretty new at the time. So I started to look at their app interface specification, and realized within a day or two that it was completely impossible to protect privacy in that framework. So I unsubscribed and blocked the account. Basically, what I had observed is exactly what Cambridge Analytica exploit. It's built into the system.

Anyway, what little time I have spare at the moment is going into trying to keep this little corner of TMC a bit saner than it was last year. But I was, indeed, thinking about joining twitter. You pushed me over the edge. You will be the second person I follow, after Elon. We'll see whether I can be useful and contribute, or run out of time.

Ok so we are doing this... my productivity at work is in jeopardy... oh well

 

[JRP3]

I'd love to understand these a bit more.

How exactly do rising gas prices impact Tesla?

A rudimentary analysis indicates that the average American spent $1400 on gasoline in 2016, and that consumption went down in 2017. Even if gas prices doubled, do you really think that an additional $1400 in annual spend is going to prompt the purchase of a $50k+ car?

I just don't think ordinary Americans are evaluating car purchases while at the gas pump.

Are you kidding? Rising gas prices cause people to look for more fuel efficient vehicles just as dropping gas prices help sales of larger less efficient vehicles. Even your average dolt can figure out that $1400 a year for 10 years of vehicle ownership = $14,000 and then subtract the much lower electric bill to figure their savings. And you might want to remember that the Model 3 will be available for much less than $50K in the near future.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Once the ICE tank fill up is >$100 the Consumer will take notice and take action. Ford's foray to drop cars will backfire. EVs will prosper.

 

[sub]

I respect and thank those willing to spend the time and energy fighting the FUD but I personally don't think it helps much, if at all. I also don't do social media as I've said before. I do have a twitter account and follow a few people but I have never tweeted. I learned long ago I can't change people's minds for them, it's takes being hit over the head over and over by reality before they even start to consider it.

 

[Reciprocity]

I put my time in at Seeking Alpha, back when it was being linked by Yahoo and many others as a "news source", and John Petersen was in full on FUD mode bashing everything EV and Tesla. Most of the insanity we are seeing on Twitter is meaningless babble which will have no effect on the company and provides zero insight into my investment strategy. At this point Tesla's future is in Tesla's hands, all the tweets in the world, other than from Elon, will not change that.

Every little bit helps but frankly, no one reads seeking alpha comments unless they are looking for confirmation of their skewed ideas. Twitter is much bigger and way more powerful. One yet can be retweeted and favorited, which had a viral effect where seeking alpha is contained to that one article. That is why there are pro tweeters posting all day and all night. They know they can trick and deceive larger numbers of people. I was in denial for a while and thought there was no way anyone could believe that crap, but to many people are gullible and to lazy to research for themselves.

 

[dc_h]

It's also an exercise in probability. It's easy for someone eg. @MattEnth to say "I wouldn't buy a $50k car to save $200/month on gas." Maybe 8 of his best friends would say the same thing. But maybe 1 person in 10 will do the arithmetic and decide that, indeed, the total cost of ownership matters to them, and goes ahead. Since even 1/10th of the Corolla/Camry/BMW 3/Audi 4/Merc C market is more than TSLA can produce, I think it might make a difference.

My neighbor bought an X last year. He test drove it and loved it, but had a hard time just the price. He test drove Audi Q9, the X7 and Mercedes. All were so so-so after the X, he ran the lifetime cost of ownership and decided if he kept it 6 years, the extra cost would pay for itself. Driving from 32 miles outside of Chicago, AP is an added bonus he did not monetize.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I learned long ago I can't change people's minds for them, it's takes being hit over the head over and over by reality before they even start to consider it.

Hit over the head? I don't even know if getting run over by a Model 3 would change the mind of some $TSLA shorts.

Heck, getting run over by a Model 3 5,000 times a week probably wouldn't change their mind either. Probably wouldn't be able to short any additional shares, though

 

[SunCatcher]

Most of the insanity we are seeing on Twitter is meaningless babble which will have no effect on the company and provides zero insight into my investment strategy. At this point Tesla's future is in Tesla's hands, all the tweets in the world, other than from Elon, will not change that.

This! Elon Musk will either drop the world on their plucking heads, or he won't. I'm strongly betting on the former.

Got my first ride in our good friend's Model 3 over the weekend. Ours is a month or so off from delivery. That car is going to quickly join the ranks of the S and X in delivering the goods to the haters' great embarrassment. That may not stop them either, but I really don't give a damn anymore. After all, in the world of electricity, both positive and negative are needed to power things forward. And as some have said; the greater the wind in the spring, the stronger the catapult upon release. It's only a matter of time.

 

[AlMc]

Question that I have been pondering: Is the risk/reward better to buy now (pre ER/CC); after ER/CC as we will have more info OR wait till end of Q2/prior to Q2 ERE/CC.

EM suggesting that Q3/Q4 will be cash flow positive. Shorts will not give up (IMO) until they see cash flow positive. So,is there any rush to commit more money to TSLA prior to Q2ER? You might miss out (FOMO) if you don't commit more funds now, but does the risk of missing out outweigh the possibility that there will be the same (or better) entry point in the future?

 

[Reciprocity]

I'd love to understand these a bit more.

How exactly do rising gas prices impact Tesla?

A rudimentary analysis indicates that the average American spent $1400 on gasoline in 2016, and that consumption went down in 2017. Even if gas prices doubled, do you really think that an additional $1400 in annual spend is going to prompt the purchase of a $50k+ car?

I just don't think ordinary Americans are evaluating car purchases while at the gas pump.

You are right. It's not about the gas, that's just a bonus. It's about how sexy the cars are and how you feel when you drive them. The fuel savings is more about not having to sacrifice anything to drive a truly exilerating, sexy car. You can been breath the air.