General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[TradingInvest]

Jim Cramer Defends Elon Musk's Crazy Call: Every CEO Would Love To Go Off Like That | CNBC

OK, it's on YouTube now. If you haven't seen Jim Cramer's response to the CC, you MUST have a look. Cramer's on board with Musk's actions yesterday. Absolutely priceless...

I am not a Cramer fan. But he said it perfectly.

 

[NicoV]

Could mean less Superchargers, but those are ~250k a location (warning: just some number I found on Google), so it would take a lot to move the bottom line significantly.

I think Elon is going spring cleaning on the 3rd party contractors (Jesus at the temple style).
or:

Being a software contractor, I cannot stress enough how bad it is when there are multiple parties in between you and the company you actually work for. I agreed to that once and said ‘never again’!

 

[MattEnth]

Honestly, the short thesis is stronger than ever. I'd love someone to actually engage on some of these topics rather than dismiss it. I am considering shorting more.

• Tesla's cash position continues to deteriorate:
  • -2.2B in working capital
  • 2.4B CapEx planned this year
  • 2.7B in cash
  • It sure looks like Tesla is facing a 1.9B budget shortfall
  • In line with Moody's and Wall Street's guidance that they need to raise 2B this year.
  • Musk reaffirmed that they will not raise capital.

• No new Tesla products until 2020 at earliest
  • Semi pushed out to 2020
  • Model Y CapEx won't start until 2019, implying launch in 2020
  • Roadster was never even mentioned.
  • Musk tried to avoid YouTuber's request for Full Self Driving timeline but said it wouldn't be finished until late 2019, implying 2020 launch.

• Model 3 production is still unstable and "ramping"
  • Major shifts to manufacturing strategy, including 24/7, less automation
  • Teardown video demonstrated high component costs
  • Tax benefits presumably to begin fading this year.
  • Still no week above 2500 output.
  • Lots of references to renegotiating with suppliers.
  • Earnings call mentioned an upcoming company restructure.

 

[j0hn]

Any idea how many ships so far this year? Last year China Tesla doubled sales from 2016. To double again is about 4 billion, or a little more than one ship every other week.

Thanks for the update. Great information.

if you scroll down a bit there is a table previous transports. i only started tracking in february because that is when the location became known to me. About 3250 shipped in feb , and none in march. I think most overseas shipping is early in the quarter to maximize deliveries.

I am able to go back further in time with the images and get the loaded amounts , but to get the ship info and destination i have to check up daily because i am unable to get historic data on that.

 

[SunCatcher]

Honestly, the short thesis is stronger than ever. I'd love someone to actually engage on some of these topics rather than dismiss it. I am considering shorting more.

• Tesla's cash position continues to deteriorate:
  • -2.2B in working capital
  • 2.4B CapEx planned this year
  • 2.7B in cash
  • It sure looks like Tesla is facing a 1.9B budget shortfall
  • In line with Moody's and Wall Street's guidance that they need to raise 2B this year.
  • Musk reaffirmed that they will not raise capital.

• No new Tesla products until 2020 at earliest
  • Semi pushed out to 2020
  • Model Y CapEx won't start until 2019, implying launch in 2020
  • Roadster was never even mentioned.
  • Musk tried to avoid YouTuber's request for Full Self Driving timeline but said it wouldn't be finished until late 2019, implying 2020 launch.

• Model 3 production is still unstable and "ramping"
  • Major shifts to manufacturing strategy, including 24/7, less automation
  • Teardown video demonstrated high component costs
  • Tax benefits presumably to begin fading this year.
  • Still no week above 2500 output.
  • Lots of references to renegotiating with suppliers.
  • Earnings call mentioned an upcoming company restructure.

Yeah, like these things haven't been addressed before. "Next question!"

 

[SteveG3]

Honestly, the short thesis is stronger than ever. I'd love someone to actually engage on some of these topics rather than dismiss it. I am considering shorting more.

• Tesla's cash position continues to deteriorate:
  • -2.2B in working capital
  • 2.4B CapEx planned this year
  • 2.7B in cash
  • It sure looks like Tesla is facing a 1.9B budget shortfall
  • In line with Moody's and Wall Street's guidance that they need to raise 2B this year.
  • Musk reaffirmed that they will not raise capital.

• No new Tesla products until 2020 at earliest
  • Semi pushed out to 2020
  • Model Y CapEx won't start until 2019, implying launch in 2020
  • Roadster was never even mentioned.
  • Musk tried to avoid YouTuber's request for Full Self Driving timeline but said it wouldn't be finished until late 2019, implying 2020 launch.

• Model 3 production is still unstable and "ramping"
  • Major shifts to manufacturing strategy, including 24/7, less automation
  • Teardown video demonstrated high component costs
  • Tax benefits presumably to begin fading this year.
  • Still no week above 2500 output.
  • Lots of references to renegotiating with suppliers.
  • Earnings call mentioned an upcoming company restructure.

Okay,

Group 1

cash flow positive likely Q3, even more so Q4, barring a massive stumble in TM3 ramp (see last point, we either interpret known information similarly or not), makes this entire group moot,

Group 2

They are growing revenues at 50% or greater per year and will continue to do so well into the 2020s, even if your timeline is correct re product launches (and, fwiw, your post is first I've heard of "Semi pushed out to 2020," do you have something from Tesla on that?)

Group 3

My strong impression was that there are no known timeline jeopardizing impediments to the ramp hitting it's target, just work to be done. Could the ramp be a month or two longer than end of June? Sure. Does that matter re not needing a cap raise? no. We will know within a couple of months whether your impression or mine is more accurate.

I find Tesla's public statements re gross margins through 2018 and 2019 to be far more compelling and credible than extrapolating from commentary from a guy who described the Model 3 as having gaps he could put his thumb through. I'll personally pay for Mr. Munro to fly over to my neck of the woods and demonstrate on video how effectively he can get his thumb through any of points where panels meet on the Model 3 sitting in my driveway.

While not explicitly without impact on any jobs directly at Tesla, the "restructuring" is focused on 3rd party suppliers. It's hard to see how anyone could interpret that as a "company restructure" in the sense that people generally take those terms to mean without any context (which you did not include).

 

[ggr]

Yeah, like these things haven't been addressed before. "Next question!"

"Boring!"

 

[The Blue Owl]

Honestly, the short thesis is stronger than ever.
[...snip...]

To get to a thesis, you must take all the negatives you could think of on the one hand and then try hard, with an open mind, to balance them with counter-arguments on the other hand. Or you can take the positives first; the order shouldn't matter, because you don't put your conclusion into the hypothesis, because you are intellectually honest, right? Right?

What you wrote is not a thesis. It's just a list of all the negatives you could come up with, without bothering with the other side. This forum is full of answers to those questions, if you seek them, but it's much easier to just ask us to do your homework. The proper response to this kind of 'honest question' is that boneheaded questions are not cool. You may have heard that being pointed out recently.

 

[gtrplyr1]

One think I took away from the call was the fact that they will have a Model 3 in every Tesla showroom very soon. I think that's a big deal and to go further I would set up "test rides" where possible. They don't have to necessarily do test drives but just have one that a person can sit in and take a short ride around the block. At certain locations here in Los Angles (the grove, the americana) it would go over big time. Just have a rep sitting in one and giving rides all day long .... EVERYONE knows the way to sell a car is to get someone inside of it .... even if they are not in the market it plants a seed for purchase maybe 18-24 months away, at that point Tesla may be able to fill the order rather quickly. It won't hurt at all ......

Cheers to the longs ...

BTW, I bought 50 more shares on the dip ..... Thanks Elon!

 

[EnergyMax]

Honestly, the short thesis is stronger than ever. I'd love someone to actually engage on some of these topics rather than dismiss it. I am considering shorting more.

• Tesla's cash position continues to deteriorate:
  • -2.2B in working capital
  • 2.4B CapEx planned this year
  • 2.7B in cash
  • It sure looks like Tesla is facing a 1.9B budget shortfall
  • In line with Moody's and Wall Street's guidance that they need to raise 2B this year.
  • Musk reaffirmed that they will not raise capital.

• No new Tesla products until 2020 at earliest
  • Semi pushed out to 2020
  • Model Y CapEx won't start until 2019, implying launch in 2020
  • Roadster was never even mentioned.
  • Musk tried to avoid YouTuber's request for Full Self Driving timeline but said it wouldn't be finished until late 2019, implying 2020 launch.

• Model 3 production is still unstable and "ramping"
  • Major shifts to manufacturing strategy, including 24/7, less automation
  • Teardown video demonstrated high component costs
  • Tax benefits presumably to begin fading this year.
  • Still no week above 2500 output.
  • Lots of references to renegotiating with suppliers.
  • Earnings call mentioned an upcoming company restructure.

So Musk is lying, and Tesla won't be bringing in cash at 5k M3/week?

 

[MattEnth]

So Musk is lying, and Tesla won't be bringing in cash at 5k M3/week?

Uhhh, yes? Musk has promised profitability and cash flow positive multiple times in the past. He's sworn off capital multiple times in the past.

Read the shareholder lawsuit. He promised 10k Model 3s in December despite being told by his team that it wasn't possible. That tweet from last July was either a lie or very uninformed.

I don't know why you would take Musk's statement at face value. Or why you would trust his word over experienced capital investment professionals.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Meanwhile
VIN 224xx assigned

Nevermind, 27442 assigned, in Canada (amount in Canadian $)

VIN Assignment

 

[SteveG3]

Galileo on Cheddar (financial news channel), including some of his thoughts on media and analysts reactions to Musk's handling of yesterday's call vs. feedback he's hearing from investors,

 

[SunCatcher]

One think I took away from the call was the fact that they will have a Model 3 in every Tesla showroom very soon. I think that's a big deal and to go further I would set up "test rides" where possible. They don't have to necessarily do test drives but just have one that a person can sit in and take a short ride around the block. At certain locations here in Los Angles (the grove, the americana) it would go over big time. Just have a rep sitting in one and giving rides all day long .... EVERYONE knows the way to sell a car is to get someone inside of it .... even if they are not in the market it plants a seed for purchase maybe 18-24 months away, at that point Tesla may be able to fill the order rather quickly. It won't hurt at all ......

Cheers to the longs ...

BTW, I bought 50 more shares on the dip ..... Thanks Elon!

Personally, I understand very clearly why they don't have any Model 3s available for test drives;

1) They don't/won't need to until they can reverse the demand to production ratio on the M3. They already have massive orders they cannot keep up with.

2) Those waiting for their M3s have already said they'll buy one without a test drive.

3) Those who have ordered, and are still waiting for their M3, and who have had the privilege of driving one because their good friend already got theirs... realize that the M3 is every bit as good as the Model S and X. In some ways, even better! I've seen many reports of S owners who say they like their new M3 better than their S. And Tesla knows this as well. If they had a Model 3 in their showrooms for the general public to test drive, I have no doubt in my mind that M3 sales would cut into their more expensive S & X sales. This hasn't happened yet because of the virtual unobtainium status that the M3 holds for the foreseeable future.

 

[Skryll]

Honestly, the short thesis is stronger than ever. I'd love someone to actually engage on some of these topics rather than dismiss it. I am considering shorting more.

Please do. I want to buy more below 260 like we did a few weeks back. Picked up some at 279.80 and 283.10 in the last two days.

 

[Reality]

So Musk is lying, and Tesla won't be bringing in cash at 5k M3/week?

seems like it would be easier to list the things Elon hasnt lied about

 

[Reality]

Please do. I want to buy more below 260 like we did a few weeks back. Picked up some at 279.80 and 283.10 in the last two days.

By last 2 days do you mean "today", otherwise im curious where you buy shares from

 

[mspohr]

Personally, I understand very clearly why they don't have any Model 3s available for test drives;

1) They don't/won't need to until they can reverse the demand to production ratio on the M3. They already have massive orders they cannot keep up with.

2) Those waiting for their M3s have already said they'll buy one without a test drive.

3) Those who have ordered, and are still waiting for their M3, and who have had the privilege of driving one because their good friend already got theirs... realize that the M3 is every bit as good as the Model S and X. In some ways, even better! I've seen many reports of S owners who say they like their new M3 better than their S. And Tesla knows this as well. If they had a Model 3 in their showrooms for the general public to test drive, I have no doubt in my mind that M3 sales would cut into their more expensive S & X sales. This hasn't happened yet because of the virtual unobtainium status that the M3 holds for the foreseeable future.

Rocklin has a M3 for test drives.

 

[Waiting4M3]

seems like it would be easier to list the things Elon hasnt lied about

So it again comes down to some people believing in Elon, and some don't. Why are we wasting time circling our way to it yet another time?

 

[Skryll]

By last 2 days do you mean "today", otherwise im curious where you buy shares from

05/02/18 18:26:27 EDT @283.10
05/03/18 09:12:42 EDT @279.90

Sometimes having after and premarket access us useful