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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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It's actually worse than that.

Ford's revenue was $156b last year, It was $154b in..... 1998.
FORTUNE 500: 1998 Archive Full List 1-100
20 year CAGR of 0%.

GM was $178 billion in 1998, it's $145 billion twenty years later. CAGR of -1%.

Ford revenues will probably be flat since they are discontinuing all sedan/coupe sales other than the Mustang in North America.

I'd bet in 2028 GM and Ford will also have lower revenue than they do today too.

Tesla will be $20 billion this year, up 10x since 2013, and probably $30 billion next year. If they grow revenues at a slower/safer 25-30% pace, they'll pass $100 billion in revenue in 2024.

Yes, the legacy automakers aren't exactly risk free. Ford boasts a dividend of 5.34% right now. But with a share price that's essentially been on a decline since the 2008 market freak out recovery, owning Ford stock right now is arguably as risky as Tesla, but with no upside. GM went bankrupt, it isn't unthinkable that Ford could too. A large company with declining revenues, that is exiting market segments, and, frankly, having no ideas on how to regain momentum (other than hanging on for dear life to the F150), is hardly a company I personally want to own, even with a 5% dividend.
 
I'm sorry, but you could not be more wrong on this. I'm highly surprised at your last two posts. Anyway...
And why is that? As usual, just an opinion but no facts. JRPs argument was that you have very few followers, and your tweets dont get liked/retweeted much so their visibility is low. Why do you think this is wrong? Please explain
 
Yes, the legacy automakers aren't exactly risk free. Ford boasts a dividend of 5.34% right now. But with a share price that's essentially been on a decline since the 2008 market freak out recovery, owning Ford stock right now is arguably as risky as Tesla, but with no upside. GM went bankrupt, it isn't unthinkable that Ford could too. A large company with declining revenues, that is exiting market segments, and, frankly, having no ideas on how to regain momentum (other than hanging on for dear life to the F150), is hardly a company I personally want to own, even with a 5% dividend.

Ford Weighs Halting F-150 Output After Supplier Fire

Supplier fire may cause Ford to halt production of the F150.
 
Tesla charts will soon be a bull. This is because he has to jump through some crazy hoops to make things look bad for Tesla and he knows it. He cherry picks data points and uses less then useful time frames for his charts to hide the facts. Any good chartest would look at short, medium and long term. Why is that critical? Because Tesla has grown at over 50% YoY for a decade. This is a very hard fact to avoid and Tesla charts is a very smart guy and very good at avoiding it. It doesnt make him right, it makes him deceptive. I know he is being deceptive because he does not offer any information that would skew positive for Tesla. There are zero companies on this planet where you cannot find some positives.

I assume these guys are either paid, or heavily invested because of how much time and effort they put in. Take someone like Montana Septic. Supposedly a Yale graduate that manages $2B fund, yet he spends all day on Twitter bashing Tesla. All Day. How many of you would keep your job if you did that? My guess is that it is his job. He has his entry financial future invested in the destruction of Tesla. If he was invested elsewhere, he would be focusing his efforts there. Sames goes for MBS and Tesla charts. There bias comes from their investment so you cannot trust their opinion. But the casual investor that happens bye and see this filth, they dont get that. They do not understand here the bias comes from. It comes from losing money for the past 5 years trying to short Tesla from $30 to over $300. I would probably turn into an absolutely lunatic if I did that as well.

At the end of the day its real simple. People are willing to pay for growth. They are willing to take risks on growth. They are not willing to take risks on companies growing at 3% a year with $150B in debt like Ford. They are all looking for the next $AAPL and $AMZN and they have found it.

For those interested in fighting out right falsehoods on Twitter, all I ask is 10 tweets a day. Find FUD, counter FUD. Same thing goes for if you find something negative that is real. Demand better from Tesla, they are not perfect. My issues is that there is so much False information spread and it is impacting the mindset of people, mostly Journalists and media types. Most Fudsters have few followers and they only get read because they tag along with $TSLA's popularity.
Thats a pretty long text, and as im unfortunately not getting paid to bash Tesla ill keep my answer short.

Do you, Mr. Reciprocity, with 3.685 post in a dedicated Tesla forum, a new Twitter Account to battle "misinformation", and your constant ecouragements to fellow Tesla Investors to tweet 10 times a day for the good cause, happen to see the irony in your statements?

If Montana, Tesla Charts or any of the guys you mentioned is really on Jim Chanos (or somebody elses) payroll, I hope you get at least twice as much from Musk.
 
And why is that? As usual, just an opinion but no facts. JRPs argument was that you have very few followers, and your tweets dont get liked/retweeted much so their visibility is low. Why do you think this is wrong? Please explain

Is coordinating and measuring the impact of Twitter "campaigns" really worth discussion in an investor forum?

The idea that there's some "coordinated campaign" on either side is ridiculous (including Elon's participation).

We're earnest shorts. I own January put options. I'm here posting to (a) look for blind spots and (b) encourage others to look at their own blind spots.

Any serious investor in an individual security isn't going to base their investment on Twitter sentiment.
 
Ford Weighs Halting F-150 Output After Supplier Fire

Supplier fire may cause Ford to halt production of the F150.
Have they submitted paperwork admitted personal and professional failure publicly and before god? I don’t hear a hue and cry yet from the tslaq crowd about this, maybe it’s just an unfortunate event. Not a planned outage to improve production, but not something a ceo needs to fall on a sword for.
 
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Ukrainian Rednecks have an answer for the F Series shortage....

j95x1b4Lw_s.jpg
 
It's actually worse than that.

Ford's revenue was $156b last year, It was $154b in..... 1998.
FORTUNE 500: 1998 Archive Full List 1-100
20 year CAGR of 0%.

GM was $178 billion in 1998, it's $145 billion twenty years later. CAGR of -1%.

Ford revenues will probably be flat since they are discontinuing all sedan/coupe sales other than the Mustang in North America.

I'd bet in 2028 GM and Ford will also have lower revenue than they do today too.

Tesla will be $20 billion this year, up 10x since 2013, and probably $30 billion next year. If they grow revenues at a slower/safer 25-30% pace, they'll pass $100 billion in revenue in 2024.
I think Tesla can do $35B in 2019. Also assuming China GGF breaks ground in 2019, I think it will hit full stride between 2021-2024, driving tremendous growth, 25-30% could be under-estimating.
 
Sorry for the junior moderating, but can we make a separate "2018 Investor Beef Rap Battle & Twitter Throwdown" thread for everyone's favorite ad hominems and get back to, well, any other topic?
I was going to say, we have a few new obvious trolls with new accounts all over these threads with the clear intention to pick fights and provoke arguments with long standing members.

Will our moderators step in eventually?
 
Yes, the legacy automakers aren't exactly risk free. Ford boasts a dividend of 5.34% right now. But with a share price that's essentially been on a decline since the 2008 market freak out recovery, owning Ford stock right now is arguably as risky as Tesla, but with no upside. GM went bankrupt, it isn't unthinkable that Ford could too. A large company with declining revenues, that is exiting market segments, and, frankly, having no ideas on how to regain momentum (other than hanging on for dear life to the F150), is hardly a company I personally want to own, even with a 5% dividend.
I got into an argument on another forum about an ETF called AMZA. It has, currently, a 25% dividend! Who wouldn't want to invest in that? The problem is that 5 years ago it was worth over $25/share with a net asset value of around that. Today it's $7.47, with NAV of 7.29. So basically it's selling assets to give dividends, and if you held it for those 5 years you've made, basically, nothing.

Five years ago Ford was $15.08, today it's $11.06, which is $4.02 loss... funnily enough, that's 26.6%, almost exactly 5 years of 5% dividend. Oh, and 4 years ago $F was much higher! If you bought then, you're much worse off. I just used 5 years for a level playing field.
 
My model X was delivered the last day in December 2016, so just 15 months ago. My VIN was 32xxx. Imagine that for a minute. Tesla is going to have successfully added that much volume to production from 0-30000+ in 15 months. The next 15 months could be 10x that. We give Tesla a lot of grief, but that's amazing.
I don't know, I think Henry Ford wouldn't be that impressed yet:) Looking at the model t wiki, Ford Model T - Wikipedia, they went from 10,000 in 1909 for $22,000 (inflation adjusted) to making over 2,000,000 in 1923 for $5000. That's like if Tesla makes about 6,000,000 (adjust for pop growth) base model 3 in 2031 for $8750. Though hopefully Tesla will maintain a much higher standard for employees/supply chain/sustainability than Ford did.
 
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Thats a pretty long text, and as im unfortunately not getting paid to bash Tesla ill keep my answer short.

Do you, Mr. Reciprocity, with 3.685 post in a dedicated Tesla forum, a new Twitter Account to battle "misinformation", and your constant ecouragements to fellow Tesla Investors to tweet 10 times a day for the good cause, happen to see the irony in your statements?

If Montana, Tesla Charts or any of the guys you mentioned is really on Jim Chanos (or somebody elses) payroll, I hope you get at least twice as much from Musk.

It is a valid point, and I agree somewhat. I think Reciprocity adds a great value to this forum, and highly likely is not paid. I also think there are just as many shorts who are very passionate about their viewpoints, add value to others ideas who are not paid to schwill out misinformation.


You ain't gonna learn what you don't wanna know.

Jerry Garcia
 
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