General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[electracity]

At a time where other EV manufacturers are shooting for sub $180kw/h this is indeed one of the most important news of the shareholder meeting. I can see other manufacturers delaying product launches because of this or only producing compliance cars because they have no way of competing with Tesla pricing and have to sell at loss.

Not really the way it works. All companies understand that they work at negative margins until they scale production. Why do you assume that a company order a large quantity of cells from Panasonic would not have similar pricing to Tesla?

What car company would be unable to eat negative margins to achieve a strategic objective in EV? Porsche, Jaguar, BMW, Hundai? Look at their financials.

 

[bambam4171]

Not really the way it works. All companies understand that they work at negative margins until they scale production. Why do you assume that a company order a large quantity of cells from Panasonic would not have similar pricing to Tesla?

What car company would be unable to eat negative margins to achieve a strategic objective in EV? Porsche, Jaguar, BMW, Hundai? Look at their financials.

Porsche, BMW and other European Manufacturers have to cope with the fact that many models they sell can't be produced until next year because they have to match the new regulations. Now imagine having all this production capacity on stand-by for a year. Do you still think they can eat negative margins? Think again then.

As for thinking "Everyone can order cells from Panasonic at the same price", again, not going to happen because
1) This Cell is Tesla only, Pana can't sell it to anyone else
2) This cell is NCA, everyone else is using NMC
3) No one else has built a GF together with Pana to bring the price to this region (economies of scale)

All your arguments are bust.

 

[dc_h]

I loved the reference to whoppers.

Where’s the wtf button when you need it

 

[ruralectric]

Researchers predict economic downturn if fossil fuel investment goes unchecked

This is a great piece.

"An economic downturn on the level of the 2008 recession is coming if we keep investing in fossil fuels, researchers say. If fossil fuel-producing countries like the US, Canada, and Russia don't guide their economies away from oil, gas, and coal, then low-carbon technology could render at least some of those investments worthless. According to a paper in Nature Climate Change, approximately $1 trillion to $4 trillion could be lost from the global economy, even taking into account the fact that the Trump administration has hit the brakes on a lot of climate change policy in the US."

 

[jeewee3000]

Porsche, BMW and other European Manufacturers have to cope with the fact that many models they sell can't be produced until next year because they have to match the new regulations. Now imagine having all this production capacity on stand-by for a year. Do you still think they can eat negative margins? Think again then.

As for thinking "Everyone can order cells from Panasonic at the same price", again, not going to happen because
1) This Cell is Tesla only, Pana can't sell it to anyone else
2) This cell is NCA, everyone else is using NMC
3) No one else has built a GF together with Pana to bring the price to this region (economies of scale)

All your arguments are bust.

This.

To add to this, in Europe it is illegal for companies to sell at a loss, not just bad economics. (as it undermines the principles of competition)

Companies evade those laws by accounting principles. For example, if BMW would sell their current models at 5% margin and sell an all-electric "Teslakiller" at -15% margin they'll just state that the average margin/profit on ALL units sold is positive.

However, this is only a viable strategy as long as:
1) you sell loads of other models with positive margins;
2) you sell the negative margin product in low volume.

So basically, until other car manufacturers learn to make a healthy profit on BEV's, I don't see Tesla giving up any meaningful percentage of market share.

 

[ruralectric]

Judge orders EPA to disclose any science backing up Pruitt’s climate claims

Ya gotta love this. Looks like it Mattress Man's climate is heating up.

"[Judge] Howell concluded: “When the head of an agency makes a public statement that appears to contradict ‘the published research and conclusions of’ that agency, the FOIA provides a valuable tool for citizens... Compliance with such a request would help ‘ensure an informed citizenry, vital to the functioning of a democratic society.’”

 

[renim]

At a time where other EV manufacturers are shooting for sub $180kw/h this is indeed one of the most important news of the shareholder meeting. I can see other manufacturers delaying product launches because of this or only producing compliance cars because they have no way of competing with Tesla pricing and have to sell at loss.

Pretty sure Nissan has a 10,000 yen target per cell kWh. ($90) that was from japanese web site about 2 years ago (google translate)

 

[bambam4171]

Pretty sure Nissan has a 10,000 yen target per cell kWh. ($90) that was from japanese web site about 2 years ago (google translate)

Well every single manufacturer has a target for sub $100kw, but most assume that is something they might achieve in the years 2025-2030

 

[diatz]

Submarines have nothing to do with SpaceX whatsoever. I interpret it as having acceleration similar to their rockets, at least momentairly.

Disagree that it has nothing to do witb SpaceX. They make pressurized capsules that can be launched into space. This is not entirely unlike a submarine. Your guess does sound more likely though! Although calling it a SpaceX package without using any SpaceX tech is a bit weird, but makes sense from a marketing perspective.

 

[Lhan]

Disagree that it has nothing to do witb SpaceX. They make pressurized capsules that can be launched into space. This is not entirely unlike a submarine. Your guess does sound more likely though! Although calling it a SpaceX package without using any SpaceX tech is a bit weird, but makes sense from a marketing perspective.

Think Super Draco engine option for dragstrip.

 

[scaesare]

Not really the way it works. All companies understand that they work at negative margins until they scale production. Why do you assume that a company order a large quantity of cells from Panasonic would not have similar pricing to Tesla?

What car company would be unable to eat negative margins to achieve a strategic objective in EV? Porsche, Jaguar, BMW, Hundai? Look at their financials.

If you place an order, and it can't be fulfilled due to lack of manufacturing capacity... is the cell cost zero, or infinite?

 

[scaesare]

Well every single manufacturer has a target for sub $100kw, but most assume that is something they might achieve in the years 2025-2030

What's more, by that time Tesla's pack costs will be below that level, whereas Nissan still needs to add the expense of cooling to it's pack architecture...

 

[22522]

He could improve his explainantions if there were more time and he deemed it appropriate. Let's give it a try:

1) LIDAR can't read road signs, so it is not the ultimate solution. Vision has to work.
2) Today's LIDAR is reflected by fog. A way to think about reflections is to recall radios with the telescoping antennas. Reception (and reflection) only happen if the electrons in your antenna can run far enough to mimic the electrons in the transmitting antenna. Water droplets in fog are as big as the wavelengths used in today's LIDAR. The electrons in the droplet can move far enough to mimic the source, or reflect. Elon called out 4mm because that is longer than most naturally occurring conductive particles (water droplets). It does not get reflected back to you.
3) Elon might be hinting at active illumination at 4mm.

He likely said 4 mm instead of microwave to keep from frightening the audience.

4-millimeter band - Wikipedia

That is automotive radar band of very close.

 

[Zaxxon]

While Tesla didn't give us the May 2018 US Model 3 sales numbers, they did turn it into a simple algebra problem to get a ballpark figure:

I took this chart, estimated the market share percentage values (which do sum to about 100%), grabbed the actual sales numbers from the other four manufacturers, and extrapolated Model 3 US sales from there:

The Model 3 number is of course only an estimate because the marketshare percentages are not exact--I've estimated them to about 1% intervals and that's not what they are likely to actually be. However, this does tell me that the 6,250 that InsideEVs marked down for the 3 is likely within a couple percentage points of actual.

To that 6,250 we then need to add Canada, which looks to have been a couple hundred at least.

 

[Krugerrand]

Mission E wins.

Etron wins

Bryton wins.

Not if they are compliance cars. Not if they don’t have a SuperCharger Network. Not if no batteries. Not if no OTA updates. Not if continual improvements don’t happen monthly and car model years exist.

 

[Krugerrand]

At a time where other EV manufacturers are shooting for sub $180kw/h this is indeed one of the most important news of the shareholder meeting. I can see other manufacturers delaying product launches because of this or only producing compliance cars because they have no way of competing with Tesla pricing and have to sell at loss.

Tesla is about to SpaceX the industry.

Adding: Yeah, think about that for a minute. Really think about it. Forget all the other stuff the OEMs don’t have and don’t seem to plan to be having. Forget about OEM legacy stuffs and all the rest.

On this one point alone, just exactly how will any OEM be able to compete against Tesla?

Tesla is about to back the entire industry into a big black hole from which there is no escape. Tick. Tock.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla is about to SpaceX the industry.

Adding: Yeah, think about that for a minute. Really think about it. Forget all the other stuff the OEMs don’t have and don’t seem to plan to be having. Forget about OEM legacy stuffs and all the rest.

On this one point alone, just exactly how will any OEM be able to compete against Tesla?

Tesla is about to back the entire industry into a big black hole from which there is no escape. Tick. Tock.

Yes they will. But it’ll take longer than it has at SpaceX (the car industry is bigger). Whenever Tesla is shipping the Semi, the compact, and the pickup truck, “analysts” will wake up and wonder where the hell did Tesla come from?

 

[JRP3]

Mission E wins.

Etron wins

Bryton wins.

Future EV product planners that listen to customer and don't dictate to customer.

Seems like outdated thinking to me. Remember when most people were saying no one would want a phone without a physical key pad? Or that people wouldn't buy EV's? Visionary product planners do in fact dictate to the customer, they create something better that the customer didn't even realize they wanted. I suspect most people will be blown away by the simplistic futuristic interior, offered by no one else, and most won't care at all about leather. We shall see.

 

[Waiting4M3]

While Tesla didn't give us the May 2018 US Model 3 sales numbers, they did turn it into a simple algebra problem to get a ballpark figure:

View attachment 307152

I took this chart, estimated the market share percentage values (which do sum to about 100%), grabbed the actual sales numbers from the other four manufacturers, and extrapolated Model 3 US sales from there:

View attachment 307153

The Model 3 number is of course only an estimate because the marketshare percentages are not exact--I've estimated them to about 1% intervals and that's not what they are likely to actually be. However, this does tell me that the 6,250 that InsideEVs marked down for the 3 is likely within a couple percentage points of actual.

To that 6,250 we then need to add Canada, which looks to have been a couple hundred at least.

One thing that jumps out at me is that if you use the May 6200 sales # is right in the graph, then scaling that to March and April gives us ~4k and ~5k respectively, The April # is quite a bit higher than InsideEV's estimate.

Also my model shows ~179k US deliveries at the end of Q1, add the 11k M3 in Apr/May, and 6k MS/X in Apr/May, we're at 196k US delivery now, which makes 200k in Q2 look more unlikely.

Edit:

@schonelucht already linked to an analysis by Troy from a few hours ago:

@Troy did that work already 8 hours ago (and a lot more comprehensive than I did). See here Monthly Model 3 production numbers calculated from the market share chart in the shareholder meeting • r/teslamotors​

 

[schonelucht]

Confirmed Model 3 deliveries for June in the US are currently estimated at 2k (and likely growing). This is based on a reporting rate of about 7% of all customers so fairly reliable. 200k in Q2 seems the most likely unless Tesla puts a severe brake on things once they are within a few hunderd deliveries or so?