General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Yuri_G]

Huh. This is pure speculation, mind you... but they do say it's good to spread out your purchases when buying a lot of stock in one company...

May 7th: $10 million
June 12th: $25 million

Maybe this isn't going to be the last purchase.

If Musk starts buying $15 million every month, it would be $90 million more by the end of the year. Or if he bought $20 million each month, it would be $120 million more.

I do estimate it would require buying $4.2 billion to cause a true short squeeze, rather than a mere short-covering rally, however.

Would that just be one person or entity purchasing $4.2 billion or if the stock covers that number in say a week? That would be around ATH territory which would seem plausible during this run-up, though I wish it would wait for some solid Model 3 production/delivery numbers to add some fuel to the fire.

 

[RobStark]

$25 takes 12 minutes

Uber Black $90 50 minutes.
Uber $40 in 50 minutes.
Municipal Bus $5 1hr

 

[Krugerrand]

Yeah. He ended up buying out the whole company (using Tesla). He's also talked repeatedly about how he would prefer if Tesla were privately held.

Is he going to pull a Henry Ford and buy out all of his minority shareholders -- that is, us -- for cash in a personal LBO?

I'd be disappointed. I mean, I'd make a lot of money but I'd have to invest it somewhere else then.

I don’t know exactly what he’s doing, I just know he’s got a plan because he’s always got a plan. Maybe it’s just to keep his stock percentage at a certain level for control. But maybe something bigger. When he started buying SCTY, my Spidy senses went off and I started buying too. That was a win.

 

[EinSV]

To equal all prior years requires doubling every 8 months.the rest ar

Sadly my math skills are too rusty (and I am too lazy) to do the simple proof but this year the goal is 1 GWh, which Tesla has said is greater than all prior years combined so

Year 0 (2018) 1 GWh > all prior years
Year 1 2 GWh > (1 +<1)
Year 2 4 GWh > (2+1+<1)
Year 3 8 GWh > (4+2+1+<1)
Year 4 16 GWh > (8+4+2+1+<1)
Year 5 (2023) 32 GWh > (16+8+4+2+1+<1)

Basically doubling every year.

I do think Tesla will exceed this. Probably by a lot. So your number -- doubling every 8 months -- will probably end up being closer.

 

[Krugerrand]

"As of May 7, 2018, Musk reportedly owned 33.6 million shares of Tesla"

The Top Tesla Shareholders

That is less than 20%. Plus a few more he recently purchased.

I didn’t see TT007 on that list.

 

[Krugerrand]

$25 takes 12 minutes

Uber Black $90 50 minutes.
Uber $40 in 50 minutes.
Municipal Bus $5 1hr

Hmmm...no cost to the city residents, all revenues going to Boring Co. Now THAT is interesting.

 

[diatz]

FYI - Professor Scott Galloway from NYU Stern (usual purveyor of great information) posted this hit piece-esque video on Tesla earlier today:

It includes, among other things, an executive departure list compiled by Jim Chanos, a comparison of the Q1 earnings call to the infamous Enron call, and the well-refuted claim that Teslas that run on coal emit more carbon than ICE.

There's no reason to suspect ulterior motives, he and his team seem to simply have fallen victim to the Tesla misinformation machine. I wrote him an email (as did quite a few others, I suspect) refuting some of his points and he, to my pleasant surprise, replied within minutes saying they messed up on this one and that they'd post a follow up.

One battle at a time

 

[Mike Smith]

Warning: to anyone with far OTM calls, just so you`re aware of the possibility:

If there were to be a buyout or purchase offer for Tesla, you could easily be wiped out. For instance, If you`re holding Jan 2020 600 calls and an offer were to come in at $450, your calls would be pretty much worthless. The remaining value would be determined by how close the offer is to your strike price and the likelihood of an additional offer near or above your strike price being made. If the deal gets made below your strike price your calls are worthless. This would not be a good feeling.

 

[RobStark]

Cramer: Elon Musk 'floats like a butterfly, stings like a bee' versus investors betting against Tesla

Cramer: Elon Musk 'floats like a butterfly, stings like a bee' versus investors betting against Tesla

 

[jimmyjohn]

Scenario: I own Jan 2020 calls strike 700.

Question: If buyout - to take private - came in for $800/share — would I sell the option immediately or take possession of the shares immediately and net the delta (minus cost of of options) or would I risk losing the delta if the privatization occurred prior to me taking action?

Sorry to ask this; Thanks

Warning: to anyone with far OTM calls, just so you`re aware of the possibility:

If there were to be a buyout or purchase offer for Tesla, you could easily be wiped out. For instance, If you`re holding Jan 2020 600 calls and an offer were to come in at $450, your calls would be pretty much worthless. The remaining value would be determined by how close the offer is to your strike price and the likelihood of an additional offer near or above your strike price being made. If the deal gets made below your strike price your calls are worthless. This would not be a good feeling.

 

[Mike Smith]

Scenario: I own Jan 2020 calls strike 700.

Question: If buyout - to take private - came in for $800/share — would I sell the option immediately or take possession of the shares immediately and net the delta (minus cost of of options) or would I risk losing the delta if the privatization occurred prior to me taking action?

Sorry to ask this; Thanks

I`ve never exercised options (which apparently you can do at any time), so I`m not sure of the process of going about it. I`d be worried about the offer being rescinded or rejected so I`d sell as fast as possible.

 

[JRP3]

Professor Scott Galloway from NYU Stern (usual purveyor of great information)

He's been negative on Tesla for a while, I always thought of him as a bit of a clown, which he seems to have proven with this recent video.

 

[sundaymorning]

He's been negative on Tesla for a while, I always thought of him as a bit of a clown, which he seems to have proven with this recent video.

He’s been clowning since $180 if I’m not mistaken.

 

[Sanny]

Last week IB has been lending out my shares at 2.63% & I've been getting 1.32%.

This is an annualized rate, correct? Isit stable, or what is the average you get for a year? I was thinking if it makes any sense to bother or not. @KnowLittle

 

[TradingInvest]

FYI - Professor Scott Galloway from NYU Stern (usual purveyor of great information) posted this hit piece-esque video on Tesla earlier today:

......

It includes, among other things, an executive departure list compiled by Jim Chanos, a comparison of the Q1 earnings call to the infamous Enron call, and the well-refuted claim that Teslas that run on coal emit more carbon than ICE.

There's no reason to suspect ulterior motives, he and his team seem to simply have fallen victim to the Tesla misinformation machine. I wrote him an email (as did quite a few others, I suspect) refuting some of his points and he, to my pleasant surprise, replied within minutes saying they messed up on this one and that they'd post a follow up.

One battle at a time

Either Galloway has a painful short position, or a short is paying him to do this stuff. Look at the pieces he put together. He is not presenting a view, he is trying to convince others to sell the stock. After being negative/wrong on Tesla and Elon Musk for years, he doesn't have much credit left.

We need Pravduh ASAP.

 

[elasalle]

Warning: to anyone with far OTM calls, just so you`re aware of the possibility:

If there were to be a buyout or purchase offer for Tesla, you could easily be wiped out. For instance, If you`re holding Jan 2020 600 calls and an offer were to come in at $450, your calls would be pretty much worthless. The remaining value would be determined by how close the offer is to your strike price and the likelihood of an additional offer near or above your strike price being made. If the deal gets made below your strike price your calls are worthless. This would not be a good feeling.

Too many IF's no? Anyone buying that far OTM must have been playing high risk, lotto game to start with ..

 

[Boomer19]

May 7th: $10 million
June 12th: $25 million

Maybe this isn't going to be the last purchase.

If Musk starts buying $15 million every month, it would be $90 million more by the end of the year. Or if he bought $20 million each month, it would be $120 million more.

I do estimate it would require buying $4.2 billion to cause a true short squeeze, rather than a mere short-covering rally, however.

that’s one way, but highly unlikely.
the loan use rate of long tesla shares is about 85% (long shares used to loan out to shorts). if a big institution decided to recall their shares from the street that would be more likely to cause a more impactful squeeze. this is also unlikely because a big broker like fidelity, for example, or even whoever is the custodian for tencent (probably a name brand) wouldn’t do so, as that would strain relationships with its street counterparts. they may recall loaned shares leading up to an important record date ( like an important proxy vote- because they’d need to HOLD shares at the depository in their custodian account in order to vote on such shares - or even receive a full dividend, instead of PIL payment in lieu which is subeckt to full withholding tax) but again this is all speculation. just an example of that scenario. further, elon’s shares are probably not eligible to be loaned bc of conflict (although i’m not sure about this). his purchases are also done by third party executor on a time schedule. so your point about this not being the last one could be correct. he would have scheduled batches of market purchases within timing that regulation dictates with this executor prior to the first execution. the point being, it’s not just him sitting at home on his trader workstation executing trades or from his phone at GF lol. therefore the articles claiming he’s manipulatiating othe market is kinda BS...true he’s buying and def telling the market that’ he’s confident, but he’s not doing it on the day, or probably not even the day before

 

[Boomer19]

Since he already owns close to 30% of the shares, doesn't he really only need to buy out enough of the common stock to equal 50%+, so potentially only ~22% of $60B ... ~$13.5B?

still have to pay ever last shareholder

 

[Boomer19]

Too many IF's no? Anyone buying that far OTM must have been playing high risk, lotto game to start with ..

i don’t think anyone has to worrry about going private at this point. more likely that someone success with a takeover offer, at which point your scenario of the offer being higher than market, but lower than OTM options still kills those guys.

 

[Boomer19]

I don’t know exactly what he’s doing, I just know he’s got a plan because he’s always got a plan. Maybe it’s just to keep his stock percentage at a certain level for control. But maybe something bigger. When he started buying SCTY, my Spidy senses went off and I started buying too. That was a win.

it’s definitley interesting for sure. does anyone thinks it’s merely just a snub to the shorts and doubters? or are we swaying towards grander plan?? we should do a poll hah