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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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With all due respect @neroden, it really hurt me to read that. Especially coming from someone I have grown to respect so much on this board. One of the main reasons there actually are disillusioned veterans is because WE learn things in our 30's, 40's, and 50's that we were not exposed to in our teens and early 20's.....not because we knew everything in our youth PRIOR to serving and then 'unethically' serve anyways as you suggest. Yes, I eventually became a disillusioned veteran, but I am also a Naval Nuclear Reactor Operator / Desert Storm veteran and Panama veteran who received the Southwest Asia Service Medal, an Admirals Letter of Commendation, 4 Commanding Officers Letters of Appreciation, earned a degree while in the military, and was one of the very few who had a perfect score on the physical fitness tests my last two years of service. I was a farm kid who gave my best to the service because I was conditioned by my environment to believe it was a good thing to serve, and by a family with a long line of service. My mother was even a proud Daughter of the American Revolution. As the oldest of 5 children I worked at least 40 hours per week on the family farm all the way through high school while doing my best to help my siblings so my Dad could work a 2nd job. What information do you think I had readily at my disposal that I must have consciously ignored to display such a 'lack of wisdom'? A desire to escape the farm and see the world was on my mind at that age, and like most small town kids, Clint Eastwood and movies like Top Gun were just a little bit more popular than reading Noam Chomsky in the small amount of free time we had.

So while I may have become a disillusioned veteran in my later years as I traveled the world with a backpack, raised a daughter, went back to school (where I finally got to read Chomsky since his works were not standard military issue), and worked to gain a desired level of social and environmental awareness and consciousness that didn't fully develop as an overworked rural farm kid or while i was in the Navy, it honestly took those later years to get there. And my story is far from unique, especially among enlisted members of the armed services. But the integrity and the ethical standards you suggest were not part of the foundation of those that chose to serve were exactly what I believe propelled me to spend an entire career working to improve our resources in the Alaska Department of Fish and Game, the National Marine Fisheries Service & NOAA, and with the US Fish and Wildlife Service. And it was those same ethical and moral beliefs that led me to jump with both feet into my investment with Tesla and hold on for the long haul.

Since I consider you a person with a high degree of critical thinking skills it is very confusing to me how you arrived at such a concept, unless perhaps your argument is void of a consideration of age or different social classes? The only thing you mentioned that makes sense to me is when you stated that you would not want to discuss it further. If you don't discuss it further, I do hope you take the time to consider it further. And if you do consider it further I am hopeful you will arrive in a much different place regarding your thoughts on some of the youngest and most junior members of the armed services, and how they got there. Many of us had very calloused hands before we ever got to Boot Camp, or even out of high school.

Thank you for saying that.

As a current active duty Naval Officer who was raised middle/upper class in the PNW and had many (likely higher paying) career opportunities after college, I'd like to briefly add another point of view from a "veteran" on the other end of the spectrum while hopefully not getting this thread too off topic.

I consider myself decently well-cultured and traveled for my age, and I certainly feel that I knew what I was getting into when I joined the military. There are hundreds of reasons why people volunteer, and to group them all as misinformed or "disillusioned" is a crass and naive generalization usually made by someone who has only looked on from the outside.

This is a conversation that deserves much more debate, but in the interest of brevity and not drifting away from the topic of this thread, I joined because I wanted to fly. Simple as that. My political views had almost zero bearing on it. A fellow squadron mate of mine has an M.S. in Aero Engineering from Stanford that cost him $0. Another friend I had in flight school was a football player at Harvard who finished with an English degree then decided to join the Marines because of the challenge.

My point is: these people are far from unintelligent and yet come from all socioeconomic backgrounds and every corner of the country, with many different views of the world and military. While some of the junior enlisted may have left home at 18 with a "disillusioned" view of their own future, I agree that they shouldn't be looked down upon so negatively or with such a condescending tone. Admittedly, I'm still relatively young and inexperienced in terms of career variety, but I've never met a group of people who work harder than those of whom I serve with in the military.

Often this military foundation in early adulthood and exposure to the world outside of American culture leads to much success later in life for these formerly "sheltered" adults. I'm leaving the political opinions out of this, but I hope that others aren't so quick to judge those who decide to serve. It's not so black and white.
 
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Be careful about this Quoth the Raven guy, in 2015 he was strongly supporting Ackman's points to short HLF, but their arguments were obviously wrong. I remember he wrote lots of convincing articles why HLF was a good short. Later HLF more than tripled.

He also strongly supports Chanos and Montana's arguments why Tesla is a great short. If you don't have a good understanding of the companies, these guys could persuade you to switch from long to short.
I mean, can't people be wrong sometimes? heck I might be wrong about Tesla.

It's a weird take to be like "Be careful, this guy has been wrong before" almost implying like you have never made a losing trade in your life.
 
Thank you for saying that.

As a current active duty Naval Officer who was raised middle/upper class in the PNW and had many (likely higher paying) career choices after college, I'd like to briefly add another point of view from a "veteran" on the other end of the spectrum while hopefully not getting this thread too off topic.

I consider myself decently well-cultured and traveled for my age, and I certainly feel that I knew what I was getting into when I joined the military. There are hundreds of reasons why people volunteer, and to group them all as misinformed or "disillusioned" is a crass and naive generalization usually made by someone who has only looked on from the outside.

This is a conversation that deserves much more debate, but in the interest of brevity and not drifting away from the topic of this thread, I joined because I wanted to fly. Simple as that. My political views had almost zero bearing on it. A fellow squadron mate of mine has an M.S. in Aero Engineering from Stanford that cost him $0. Another friend I had in flight school was a football player at Harvard who finished with an English degree then decided to join the Marines because of the challenge.

My point is: these people are far from unintelligent and yet come from all socioeconomic backgrounds and all corners of the country with many different views of the world and military. While some of the junior enlisted may have left home at 18 with a "disillusioned" view of their own future, I agree that they shouldn't be looked down upon so negatively or with such a condescending tone. Admittedly, I'm still relatively young and inexperienced in terms of career variety, but I've never met a group of people who work harder than those of whom I serve with in the military.

Often this military foundation in early adulthood and exposure to the world outside of American culture leads to much success later in life for these formerly "sheltered" adults. I'm leaving the political opinions out of this, but I hope that others aren't so quick to judge those who decide to serve. It's not so black and white.

Friends, I have a hard time to understand what all of those posts about the military, army and veterans have to do with Tesla. Maybe I miss something here if so please let me know otherwise I suggest to open a new thread for this.

I do assume there are some other people around who want like me discuss matter that have to do with Tesla.

Appreciated
 
Friends, I have a hard time to understand what all of those posts about the military, army and veterans have to do with Tesla. Maybe I miss something here if so please let me know otherwise I suggest to open a new thread for this.

I do assume there are some other people around who want like me discuss matter that have to do with Tesla.

Appreciated
Apologies for veering off topic, even though this is the "General Discussion" thread. Tesla has a large veterans program and some on this board seem to disagree with the hiring of many of those workers. I simply wanted to clear up to some why I think Tesla is making a good choice in that regard.
 
You are right, I shouldn't have said significant. Although we also shouldn't measure this based on full Tesla inventory. AFAIK the discussion is purely about the gigafactory.

The GF target is 35GWh/yr. That means 1% waste would be 350MWh of cells. Let' say manufactured cell cost is $100/KWh, of which half of that is materials.

That's $ 17 million worth of scrap cells in a year. That doesn't account scrap pack casing material, cooling parts tooling, manufacturing parts, etc... It's not unreasonable for a couple million dollars worth of scrap being generated at the GF alone every month on average...
 
That fact that we are talking about 100 of thousands of people that currently want a car they cant get ...as if there won't be many many more ordering said car ...as a concern is baffling to me.

I don't understand why damage by way of reduced reservations is damage nonetheless?

This smacks of "he's rich, it's OK to steal from him."

If Tesla is ultimately able to sell 100K less cars 2 years from now, that may represent ($42K ASP * 25% GM * 100K cars ) over a billion dollars..

Sounds serious to me.
 
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Yes ...but... the demand may "soften" ..(which I do not believe it will) and Tesla will still be supply constrained for years.
I see the M3 as the cash cow to get to the MY.

No stealing going on here ...except form the shorts.
 
Tesla suffers fire Thursday at Fremont campus
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Says Thursday Fire Was Contained And Production Was Not Affected

“Last night, the structure outside our factory that houses the cardboard and other wood and paper products that are being recycled caught fire,” a company spokeswoman said in a statement. There were no reported injuries and the company was investigating the cause, the spokeswoman said.
It really sucks to be Tesla's PR people right now having to deal with every minutia, next they're going to have to report fire alarms triggered by burnt popcorn in microwaves.
 
Tesla suffers fire Thursday at Fremont campus
Tesla Motors, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Tesla Says Thursday Fire Was Contained And Production Was Not Affected

“Last night, the structure outside our factory that houses the cardboard and other wood and paper products that are being recycled caught fire,” a company spokeswoman said in a statement. There were no reported injuries and the company was investigating the cause, the spokeswoman said.

Did anyone else have the first impression that this smelled like something other than smoke?
 
Pedro Rezzarno on Twitter
"Tesla production hit 680 today. Times 7 that is 4,760 per week. By Mid July they’ll hit 800 per day.
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We won!!!

Thoughts?
 
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