General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Kenriko]

Food for thought.

When GM Makes 7,000 cars they go sit on dealer lots waiting to be sold.

When Tesla makes 7,000 cars .. they are already sold.

 

[dc_h]

Ship GA4 to GF3 in China.

Based on lessons learned, I think a really big tent may be gigafactory 3 and they can source and build a similar line to get assembly localized by end of year and eliminate the tariffs. Phase two build battery tent on one side and stamping and full production plant on the other and have a full new plant in 2019. The shorties would freak out if Tesla fraud was making a million car annual rate by end of 2019.

 

[T3 4 ME]

Doesn't count. At midnight it was 4950 cars in last 7 days. Clearly Tesla is going down now, they can't make money selling only 4950 cars a week. They will never reach 5k. Elon Musk is a fraud. Run to the exits.

/s

Get over it - Tesla rocks!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

So who the hell is selling? What's up with this SP plummet? Dropped $30 since opening.

Dan

 

[sub]

Sell the news. I feel a slow run up from here to earnings is likely. I timed it decent this morning, sold a leap near the top and bought back lower.

 

[sub]

I said I would keep my avatar until Tesla made 5k a week m3 or went bankwupt but it's grown on me so I'm going to keep it a while longer.

 

[trils0n]

So who the hell is selling? What's up with this SP plummet? Dropped $30 since opening.

Dan

Shorts are selling. Deliberate attempt to cancel out the good news and make it appear as if the market doesnt like the good news.

 

[EnergyMax]

Tesla needs to follow up the Q2 production numbers with continued production. A sentence that they would maintain above 4000/week for the rest of June would have helped.

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah I agree the premarket pop looked to be getting away so there was sure to be a counter.
By the volume this is the big boys stepping up.

 

[scaesare]

Tesla didn't hit 5k/week, sounds but the upper 4,000's. Only apology needed is you forum members accusing me of spreading FUD to me.
I'm already expecting the "oh come on! 5k in 7 days and 5 hours is the same thing as 7 days blah blah blah" excuses. Fact is simple: despite pulling all the stops (temp production tent, 7 days/week 24/7 production, 300 fewer welds per car),
Tesla was still not able to achieve 5k/week.
Tesla reportedly hits Model 3 manufacturing goal hours after its deadline

 

[Henchman]

Desperation about what? I'm not a short seller. I don't own any TSLA stock or any funds that short TSLA. I'm just defending my integrity that some have cast doubt over, as people on here called me a FUD spreader, when it turns out what I said was the complete opposite and the FUD accusers were the only ones spreading FUD.

Frankly, I find Elon's constant need for setting self-proclaimed deadlines pretty stupid. Especially when he always busts them. If he really needs to set production deadlines, keep them as loose internal goals, and tell the public more general figures, like "around 5k/week by around July". If you come up a little short like they just did? No problem, as a hard number was never promised. If you beat the internal goals? Then go ahead and gloat about it in public.

GM got burned making production goals about the Volt initially that they never came close to hitting. After that fiasco, GM never made public any officials production goals for their EVs. GM learned from their mistake of overpromising and underdelivering, but it seems Elon just can't resist putting his neck out there time and time again, only for the guillotine to drop. Luckily for him, he seems to have 9 lives like a cat.

If you're not short, and don't own stock.
Why are you here

 

[Ulmo]

Not the highest VIN I've seen, but I spotted Model 3 vin 48655 at the Fremont Delivery Center right now, posted pic in vin thread, reported to Bloomberg. I did not check every car there since it was busy with personnel. The delivery center rear parking looked full of Model 3’s, unlike when I was there last about a week ago. I conclude they are now delivering Model 3’s without as much restraint as they had last month.

More interesting: the lot with around 10 to 11 hundred cars further down Fremont Blvd now has a hundred or so (plus or minus a hundred or so) less cars since when I was there before the weekend. Many of the packed in cars that used to be parked in the isles of every row are gone or reparked in regular painted parking spots. I conclude they are now transporting Models S, 3, & X somewhere (another lot? delivery?) without as much restraint as they seemed to have last month.

Edit: McMountain “Disagrees”. I’d like to know what you disagree with.

I also drove by the factory South overflow lot by Fisher. It is uncharacteristically empty, but there are 18 or 19 empty carriers and one carrier getting loaded with an S, with a crowd of carrier drivers talking. I don’t know why they are empty or waiting, and I don’t know why they aren’t all down at the above mentioned lot with hundreds of cars, to deliver those. I drove back to that lot and didn’t see any carriers in front loading. Logistics wants those empty carriers idling there instead of loading a thousand new cars here, for whatever reason. Any ideas? While driving there, I saw the Fremont Delivery Center busy delivering a handful of Model 3’s at that moment, so we know they are delivering some now, probably more.

 

[SteveG3]

This game is not going away anytime soon.

As much as Gordon Johnson is on the media megaphone we have an opening in the comments section to point out his apparent association with Jim Chanos, and Chanos’ apparent campaign of misinformation and Chanos goonish activities in regard to Fairfax Holdings as raised in Fairfax’s lawsuit and Matt Tiabbi’s book of investigative journalism.

If the media keeps putting these guys on air, we can keep alerting people to heavy concerns re their operating via falsehoods, attempts to mislead, bully, etc.

Put it in the comments section when these guys are given the media megaphone. Taibbi’s name and book are worth having at least as well known as Jim Chanos and Gordon Johnson. If we start doing this, and refer to chapter 6 of The Divide (Taibbi’s book) awareness will multiply. They are spreading misinformation, we can spread awareness about the misinformation.”

Gordon working the “gated production” “Musk can’t be trusted” silliness on Bloomberg around when the drop started,


Tesla's Biggest Bear Says Musk 'Misleading' on Model 3 Production


PS If you haven’t read the first post of Jesse’s thread yet, highly, highly recommended to understanding all of this and getting a better view of how we can respond

Elon Musk vs. Short sellers

again, key points in the first post

 

[jeffro01]

If you're not short, and don't own stock.
Why are you here

It's simple... Somewhere along the line this "person" felt like they were personally harmed by Elon at some level... While they haven't said publicly where on the doll Elon touched them, their agenda is clear...

Jeff

 

[Reality]

I said I would keep my avatar until Tesla made 5k a week m3 or went bankwupt but it's grown on me so I'm going to keep it a while longer.

it's a good avatar, i support you keeping it

 

[Pale Blue Dot]

Gordon working the “gated production” “Musk can’t be trusted” silliness on Bloomberg around when the drop started,


Tesla's Biggest Bear Says Musk 'Misleading' on Model 3 Production

I just wrote an article on SA about burst target rates vs sustained target rates. I believe this is a burst rate based on internal emails. We should expect to see sustained rates in about 2 months. The 6k/wk burst rate next month will be sustained by end of Q3. Check it out. Let me know your thoughts. Tesla Closing In On Production Target - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

 

[scaesare]

I think there's another important point in the quarterly numbers report regarding the factory utilization.

There was some criticism that the need to bring up another GA line in a tent implied a lack of efficiency an throughput in the existing production lines, as a factory that size shouldn't need the additional space just to hit 250K/yr Model 3 production.

The letter states: "We expect that GA3 alone can reach a production rate of 5,000 Model 3s per week soon, but GA4 helped to get us there faster and will also help to exceed that rate."

The reality is that the combined S/3/X production rate of ~350K/yr is about what that plant averaged previously, and the 600K+ combined rate that they are aiming for far exceeds that factory's peak rate of 428K/yr.

Thus while the additional tented line helped them reach the current 5K/wk goal. the reality is that it wasn't necessary for that, but absolutely will be for hitting 10K/week... and line efficiencies are not the issue....

 

[AlMc]

This seems to be a well coordinated 'bull trap'. My suspicion is that the shorts/deep pocketed bears wanted to 'stick it to' EM because of his proclamation about the 'short burn of the century'.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

This seems to be a well coordinated 'bull trap'. My suspicion is that the shorts/deep pocketed bears wanted to 'stick it to' EM because of his proclamation about the 'short burn of the century'.

And by doing so, they’re making it happen. The bigger the short, the larger the burn.

 

[Ulmo]

This seems to be a well coordinated 'bull trap'. My suspicion is that the shorts/deep pocketed bears wanted to 'stick it to' EM because of his proclamation about the 'short burn of the century'.

I really think it’s easier than that: those who like the failure story have more money than those who like the success story, plus they’re good at playing the swing trade game when they coordinate the ups and downs with each other down at the big trade stations, plus they can Market Maker the ticks better in coordination with the big call writing banks to shave costs off their swing pushes in both directions. They probably sold the highs and bought the lows, regardless of their positions, and many savvy retail day traders with no care for the actual TSLA company business probably did a bit of that too. I have experienced this many times with $TSLA so I just hold my long position. Remember: Tesla is going to show profit within a year or two. That CANNOT be the same failure story as last year. We can complain about the new crop of failure bear thesis in the coming years as the stock price plummets from 450 to 400, and months from then, from 500 to 450, and years from then, whatever happens then depending on market saturation and costs.