RobStark
Well-Known Member
There is no current 92% tax rate and now Ireland EU impossing retroactive taxes would make Ireland less attractive.
Success doesn't make you more planted.
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There is no current 92% tax rate and now Ireland EU impossing retroactive taxes would make Ireland less attractive.
Success doesn't make you more planted.
Insideevs is estimating that there were 14,250 Model 3 cars sold in the U.S. in July.
Below is the June edition of the top selling cars in the U.S. If July resembles June, then the Model 3 will have made the top 10 in monthly sales. Going forward at 5k per week, the Model 3 should easily move up to the 6th spot.
6k Model 3's per week means the Honda Accord could be outsold by the Model 3. Some big dogs are gonna be scooting down that list pretty quick like...
RT
Below is the June edition of the top selling cars in the U.S. If July resembles June, then the Model 3 will have made the top 10 in monthly sales. Going forward at 5k per week, the Model 3 should easily move up to the 6th spot.
6k Model 3's per week means the Honda Accord could be outsold by the Model 3. Some big dogs are gonna be scooting down that list pretty quick like...
RT
ok, a newbie question about stocks..maybe in wrong thread my apologies if it is... mods delete as you see fit
been trying to figure out how stock market works and Tesla has been "interesting" to watch over the years (a recent owner of a Model 3) and the short interest is intriguing..and I don't fully get. this comment from another thread had me scratching my head..
TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
the comment reads
I have just shorted 2 TSLA OCT 125 PUTs and shorted another TSLA OCT 130 PUT. Please pray for me, that the stock doesnt fall below 150, until October. Please.it is "greek" to me..does it mean he hopes stock drops to ~$125 but not before october? what happens if it goes to say $500 instead?
sorry for such I am sure a straight forward question...
ignore or reply as you see fit..
jb
No shame, options are COMPLICATED. It's NOT a straightfoward question. Go over to the Basic Options and Advanced Options threads if you want a primer -- but you shouldn't try to learn options until you have a better understanding of stocks.
Anyway, the poster you are quoting is actually betting that Tesla will be OVER $150 on October 15th. It's a rather conservative bullish bet.
(Buying puts is bearish, shorting is bearish, so shorting puts is bullish. Double negative == positive)
If you believe Econ 101, you're a fool. I've studied this stuff for literally decades. Econ 101 thinking will lead you down the wrong path *every single time*. You have to know a lot more than that.
And we have actual historical data: the fact is that 92% marginal rates on the 0.1% simply don't cause executives to move countries. Do they affect behavior? Sure. Such high marginal rates cause executives to take smaller salaries. (They start looking for other things at the companies they work for: good working conditions, for instance.) Sweden had marginal rates in excess of 100% (!!!!) during my lifetime, and it didn't cause a single Swedish multimillionaire to move -- they like it in Sweden.
A completely different example. Econ 101 claims that multiple competitors will immediately lower their prices to increase profits.
It leaves out *marketing* and *product differentiation*, for god's sake. When I took Microecon 101 I already knew it was wrong.
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Worth noting that this is more than all other BEVS + PHEVs combined.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
If you dismiss the basics of orthodox economics you are a fool.
BTW Confiscatory tax rates cause the taxed to employ ever more complex methods to avoid paying taxes. Army of lawyers, tax shelters, to outright cheating. Not lower income. This distorts economic behavior from productive to unproductive.
You're spouting right-wing propaganda doctrine, not reality. This theory you spouted was flat-out tested during the Reagan era, and proven to be false.
I pay a great deal of attention to orthodox economics -- I know it very well. But any real orthodox economist (I could name check a dozen, but I'll start with Brad DeLong) will tell you that Econ 101 presents a picture simplified to the point where it is totally useless. To actually understand any market, you need to know Econ 201, 301, 401, etc....
If you're interested in learning, I can give you references. If you have a strong emotional desire to BELIEVE the untrue, contrary-to-actual-hard-data right-wing story which you are pushing, I'm not going to make any further attempts to get you to join reality. Arguing with religious fanatics is rarely productive.
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thnx for the reply.. will head over to said thread.. your reply actually helped... filled in a few holes
cheers
jb
I believe Rob Stark has bent the knee to the right wing ideology. Great person to discuss Tesla with, however if your ideology doesn't lean in the same direction you're probably not going to see eye to eye on many things.
nikolatsla
Member
According to the latest satellite images from the past week, the lot just south of the Lathrop staging area has finished its grading and it is being paved. Is Tesla planning to store more cars in this area? (Image source: planet.com)
Big take aways:
1. Trade ins of economy class cars for $50k model 3s. This car should not be compared to other EVs or premium, but to sales of Camry’s and accords&civics, which is massive when all addressable markets are combined globally. Sustained growth marker as well. This is big figure to key in on to future investors.
2. Tesla is only selling 50k+ M3s in North America right now, which indicates the tip of the ice of true demand globally. Reservations are not necessary to establish production rate since, they won’t even come close for years to come. They can produce pretty much 50k+ m3s for a while and still not be able to produce enough. This has very significant positive cash flow implications which investors will flock to expand capacity to a much larger scale to fully reach to next level market capture, which is the economy class which trade ins are indicating.
Overall, shorts are going to have a hard time justifying their positions according to just these indicators alone.
This is not to mention the significant revenue increases from energy since, given the same backlog dynamics as well as clear correlation with EVs.
1. Trade ins of economy class cars for $50k model 3s. This car should not be compared to other EVs or premium, but to sales of Camry’s and accords&civics, which is massive when all addressable markets are combined globally. Sustained growth marker as well. This is big figure to key in on to future investors.
2. Tesla is only selling 50k+ M3s in North America right now, which indicates the tip of the ice of true demand globally. Reservations are not necessary to establish production rate since, they won’t even come close for years to come. They can produce pretty much 50k+ m3s for a while and still not be able to produce enough. This has very significant positive cash flow implications which investors will flock to expand capacity to a much larger scale to fully reach to next level market capture, which is the economy class which trade ins are indicating.
Overall, shorts are going to have a hard time justifying their positions according to just these indicators alone.
This is not to mention the significant revenue increases from energy since, given the same backlog dynamics as well as clear correlation with EVs.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
All luxury brands get standard car trade ins.
I don't know if there is accurate data to compare and contrast.
Anecdotally, Mercedes has the least conquest from standards brands relative to Audi,Porsche,and BMW.
While there was nothing on Auto Pilot in the Q2 letter, Elon tweeted something regarding AP. Seems like a major update is coming in a month... Not holding my breath, but definitely interesting.
From Q2 Report:
Cool. So say the low end - 50 and they do that in again in Q4, then I should be able to get my SR in December since I was a pre-reveal reservation holder right? right!?! You would think in 100,000 cars, they could give the ones who put money down on a car they hadn't seen yet a break. We shall see.....
Cool. So say the low end - 50 and they do that in again in Q4, then I should be able to get my SR in December since I was a pre-reveal reservation holder right? right!?! You would think in 100,000 cars, they could give the ones who put money down on a car they hadn't seen yet a break. We shall see.....
Store cars? No. Expand the logistics center for truck-to-truck transfers of cars, and probably rationalize the layout to make it more efficient? Perhaps.
Unfortunately probably not. Here's the math.
420K reservations. Half US == 210K reservations. About 1/3 "SR" and about 2/3 "LR" based on polling at Electrek == 140K US LR reservations.
26K delivered through June, 50K in Q3, 72K (if they hit 6000/week and stay there for 12 weeks, with Christmas break) in Q4 == 148K... but that last two weeks' production wouldn't be delivered until January.
Honestly? Expect your car in early January. Sorry, there were *sooo* many people who reserved who wanted the LR version.
Your best chance of getting your car in December is if Tesla's ramp up goes quicker than expected and they're marching into 7000 or 8000 per week in Q4. Then you probably will get it in December. But betting on Tesla's ramp going quicker than expected is a pretty bad bet.
One way you might get your SR in December is if there are a bunch of people who want LR but don't want the premium interior, and Tesla introduces the SR version before introducing the non-premium interior. Of course you'd have to get the premium interior to get it in December then.
Conference call take away:
Autonomous driving tech well beyond anyone else in the world. (Cat-out-of-the-bag tweet reference)
No captial raise for the forseeable future. Support own growth.
Finance Chinese factory thru Chinese bank, ~$2B, well below estimated $5B.
Pay off debt coming due thru cash on hand.
Profitable and cash flow positive going forward, rises and falls depending on paying off debt and/or further capacity build out.
This is the message the big shorts are going to swallow hard tomorrow and into the future.
It will be interesting to see how they exit this position with minimum damage(if they can). Expect some more media chicanery and attempts
to goad Elon into troll battles.
Autonomous driving tech well beyond anyone else in the world. (Cat-out-of-the-bag tweet reference)
No captial raise for the forseeable future. Support own growth.
Finance Chinese factory thru Chinese bank, ~$2B, well below estimated $5B.
Pay off debt coming due thru cash on hand.
Profitable and cash flow positive going forward, rises and falls depending on paying off debt and/or further capacity build out.
This is the message the big shorts are going to swallow hard tomorrow and into the future.
It will be interesting to see how they exit this position with minimum damage(if they can). Expect some more media chicanery and attempts
to goad Elon into troll battles.
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