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General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

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Introducing SR w/ PUP before LR or SR w/o PUP is probably a sensible move. It means that the only real change for GA is in the battery itself, versus lots of interior / etc changes. So that's probably the SR we see at end of 2018 is SR w/ PUP, effectively starting at 40k.

Depending on the demand for LR w/o PUP (if anything w/o PUP is pushed to 2019), we might even see them start configuring and producing SR w/ PUP early enough in Q4 (perhaps November) that a decent number can be delivered with the 7500 credit, which will of course improve the number of SR w/ PUP orders since that "pays for" the PUP and then some.
 
Unfortunately probably not. Here's the math.

420K reservations. Half US == 210K reservations. About 1/3 "SR" and about 2/3 "LR" based on polling at Electrek == 140K US LR reservations.

26K delivered through June, 50K in Q3, 72K (if they hit 6000/week and stay there for 12 weeks, with Christmas break) in Q4 == 148K... but that last two weeks' production wouldn't be delivered until January.

Honestly? Expect your car in early January. Sorry, there were *sooo* many people who reserved who wanted the LR version.

Your best chance of getting your car in December is if Tesla's ramp up goes quicker than expected and they're marching into 7000 or 8000 per week in Q4. Then you probably will get it in December. But betting on Tesla's ramp going quicker than expected is a pretty bad bet.

One way you might get your SR in December is if there are a bunch of people who want LR but don't want the premium interior, and Tesla introduces the SR version before introducing the non-premium interior. Of course you'd have to get the premium interior to get it in December then.
Yeah, I could see that and if it were the first two weeks of Jan, then I'm ok with that. But then if that's the case, I don't understand why Tesla wouldn't go back after the ramp up (which is now) and allow those first day holders to order whatever version they want...it shows they are so power hungry for high options cars just to show high gross margin to appease Wall Street.....which is iconic because the whole point is to not rely on it.....sigh...hahaha.
 
This is for 250k unit capacity.

Maybe cost to go from 250k to 500k is less but maybe not. Maybe $4B total.

But this includes battery factory and auto factory, so less than half of US cost.
Just checked the iPhone stock app, and nothing but negative headlines about Tesla. How can anyone really trust this app for actual balanced financial news? It is a little scary that we have to be on such guard of blatant manipulation and bias, and this goes for any stock or company. This is not a healthy trend and I can only predict a further backlash as this continues to be exposed.

There will be profit ahead for any news organization or apps that are brave enough to be based in objectively.
 
Yeah, I could see that and if it were the first two weeks of Jan, then I'm ok with that. But then if that's the case, I don't understand why Tesla wouldn't go back after the ramp up (which is now) and allow those first day holders to order whatever version they want...it shows they are so power hungry for high options cars just to show high gross margin to appease Wall Street.....which is iconic because the whole point is to not rely on it.....sigh...hahaha.

They haven't even built a single SR pack or non-PUP car yet. The assembly lines aren't ready for that. It isn't that they are power hungry, it is that they are being smart on where they spend their limited resources.
 
Just checked the iPhone stock app, and nothing but negative headlines about Tesla. How can anyone really trust this app for actual balanced financial news

For the next major iOS update Apple wants to switch the news provider to Apple News, which at least has a much broader range of news sources than Yahoo: Stocks in iOS 12: Everything you need to know!
 
They haven't even built a single SR pack or non-PUP car yet. The assembly lines aren't ready for that. It isn't that they are power hungry, it is that they are being smart on where they spend their limited resources.
Seems like from the call that they were chatting up the analysts about the fact that they went from 3% to 15% soon and 25% by Q1....lots of focus on that.....the only time the 35k was mentioned was by Elon and that they haven't made it yet. Not one analysts even asked where it is.....its like they think the m3 which is from 50-78k is mass market now. No, it's just enough people have the money, not that it reaches the mass market.
 
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So my take away from the conference call was big competition is on the way and to short Tesla. I’ve got 66,000 burning a whole in my pocket.

Should I buy Amazon or BMW with my proceeds if I want the winning horse in the Autonomous EV space?

Just kidding: I would like to take a long position on short shorts companies if Elon is going to deplete inventory in that sector. Reccomendations?
 
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Just checked the iPhone stock app, and nothing but negative headlines about Tesla. How can anyone really trust this app for actual balanced financial news? It is a little scary that we have to be on such guard of blatant manipulation and bias, and this goes for any stock or company. This is not a healthy trend and I can only predict a further backlash as this continues to be exposed.

There will be profit ahead for any news organization or apps that are brave enough to be based in objectively.

Being an "expert" in Tesla has proven to me, without a doubt, just how bad "journalism" is these days. Definitely #fakenews. I see no reason to believe that it's not just as bad on all other subjects. Pick one. We really are in trouble.
 
Being an "expert" in Tesla has proven to me, without a doubt, just how bad "journalism" is these days. Definitely #fakenews. I see no reason to believe that it's not just as bad on all other subjects. Pick one. We really are in trouble.

It really depends on the writer but sadly, reputable places also have shitty writers they continue to keep in stead. What's that phrase that one drop spoils the entire thing . #fakenews
 
If you believe Econ 101, you're a fool. I've studied this stuff for literally decades. Econ 101 thinking will lead you down the wrong path *every single time*. You have to know a lot more than that.

And we have actual historical data: the fact is that 92% marginal rates on the 0.1% simply don't cause executives to move countries. Do they affect behavior? Sure. Such high marginal rates cause executives to take smaller salaries. (They start looking for other things at the companies they work for: good working conditions, for instance.) Sweden had marginal rates in excess of 100% (!!!!) during my lifetime, and it didn't cause a single Swedish multimillionaire to move -- they like it in Sweden.

A completely different example. Econ 101 claims that multiple competitors will immediately lower their prices to increase profits.

It leaves out *marketing* and *product differentiation*, for god's sake. When I took Microecon 101 I already knew it was wrong.

"it didn't cause a single Swedish multimillionaire to move"

Don't agree, marginal rates do drive behavior.....ie numerous Euro athletes gravitate to lower tax locations.

Re: Swedish millionaires: Bjorn Borg lives in Monte Carlo, many retired Swedish hockey players live in North America.

As I'm sure you know that when tax rates were confiscatory in the U.S., tax policy allowed a lot more business deductions and free stuff for executives.
 
It's fascinating how much of what Tesla does hides in plain sight, buried in FUD.

Case in point -- Tesla's AI/self-driving chip that will have 10X the power of the industry leading chip from Nvidia.

It has been obvious that Tesla was going forward with this project, and every reason to believe the outcome would be stellar given the talent Tesla brought to the effort:

Given Tesla, Keller and Elon's track records and Tesla's clear commitment to developing a killer AI chip IMO there is a high likelihood that Tesla will be coming out with a powerful AI chip that surprises the market in the foreseeable future, perhaps (speculatively) in the next 12-18 months. I think the market is currently valuing Tesla's AI silicon project at about zero.

I thought this snippet from the electrek article was intriguing:

While Keller is leaving, Tesla is reiterating its commitment to developing its own chips with the team that Keller helped put together.

A Tesla spokesperson added:

“Tesla is deeply committed to developing the most advanced silicon in the world and we plan to dramatically increase our investment in that area while building on the world-class leadership team we have in place.” Tesla’s VP of Autopilot and chip guru Jim Keller is leaving, another former Apple chip designer is tapped
 
It's fascinating how much of what Tesla does hides in plain sight, buried in FUD.

Case in point -- Tesla's AI/self-driving chip that will have 10X the power of the industry leading chip from Nvidia.

It has been obvious that Tesla was going forward with this project, and every reason to believe the outcome would be stellar given the talent Tesla brought to the effort:

How well can it mine bitcoin???!!
 
Just checked the iPhone stock app, and nothing but negative headlines about Tesla. How can anyone really trust this app for actual balanced financial news? It is a little scary that we have to be on such guard of blatant manipulation and bias, and this goes for any stock or company. This is not a healthy trend and I can only predict a further backlash as this continues to be exposed.

There will be profit ahead for any news organization or apps that are brave enough to be based in objectively.
I really like that! Give me a lower price for loading, pretty please!!
 
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