German Auto Makers Serious About EV's

[mongo]

Before Dieselgate they were moving at compliance pace and still insisting that diesel had a role to play. Although other governments were supportive of electrification (particularly of note were the 2nd and 3rd largest European markets in the UK and France, both of whose large capital cities have terrible air quality), the German government didn't provide support.

Post-dieselgate diesel car sales have collapsed in the major diesel markets, including in Germany. (Sales are down anyway, but diesel car sales are down far more than gasoline car sales). The German manufacturers had diesel as a competitive strength, but the value of that strength is greatly diminished, and it has pushed the German manufacturers to accelerate their electrification programs.

Meanwhile, in the USA, the result of Dieselgate is a multi-billion dollar investment in CCS charging infrastructure, with a little additional CHAdeMO support. Although more limited than the Supercharger network, it will effectively lower the cost of comprehensive coverage, providing additional help to competing manufacturers, who will find it easier to sell their BEVs, whether they are serious about scaling or they are just going to do what's necessary for regulatory compliance.

In my opinion, Dieselgate has increased competitive pressures on Tesla by forcing the hand of German manufacturers, and encouraged China aggressively to pursue electric vehicle manufacturing as a major export industry.

All valid points, however, I don't see them materially affecting Tesla in a negative way.
Tesla is a member of CCS, so there should not a barrier to that network supporting Teslas.
Manufacturers still need to build the cars (low volume of competition).
EVs are replacing ICE, so the customer pool is large and growing. It is not EVs fighting over a small (EV-only) market segment.
Currently, Tesla is supply constrained, and more people need cars that they can supply, having other sources of EVs is good for the Earth, and EV adoption in general.

Tesla/ ELon never wanted to be the only EV manufacturer, and I think he is disappointed other OEMs haven't moved faster. Ultimately, that delay may cost them dearly (but that is a different thread).

 

[scaesare]

VW not doing supercharging, try ultracharging. Tesla doesn't have that either. And have not seen any plans to do so.

Please to be describing ultracharging in actual implementation.... that is: what power delivery they are capable of at what voltages & currents?

Bonus points for outlining the specs of the (theoretical) car pack that can take advantage of them.

Thanks.

 

[scaesare]

VW has been forced to spend $2B on a US charging network. It's sunk cost at this point.

Dieselgate was good for BEVs, but bad for Tesla.

Given Tesla's mission of transitioning the world's transportation to sustainable energy usage, and Elon's specific comments on the desire to spur other manufacturers on, your assertion is directly at odds this those goals.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

No one else has the supercharger network....

Yes and I am looking forward to someday owning a Tesla so I can use the Supercharger network. But other networks are developing quickly now. In my province there are now 9 Supercharger locations. There are also 63 Chademo/CCS locations with probably 20 more in various stages of construction or planning for end year operation. So roughly 8 times as many locations and serving a much broader area. Obviously the Supercharger network has a much wider build out on a national scale...but other networks are coming.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

All valid points, however, I don't see them materially affecting Tesla in a negative way.
Tesla is a member of CCS, so there should not a barrier to that network supporting Teslas.
Manufacturers still need to build the cars (low volume of competition).
EVs are replacing ICE, so the customer pool is large and growing. It is not EVs fighting over a small (EV-only) market segment.
Currently, Tesla is supply constrained, and more people need cars that they can supply, having other sources of EVs is good for the Earth, and EV adoption in general.

Tesla/ ELon never wanted to be the only EV manufacturer, and I think he is disappointed other OEMs haven't moved faster. Ultimately, that delay may cost them dearly (but that is a different thread).

If there are other manufacturers pursuing volume in BEVs, they are competitors. If they aren't pursuing volume, they are not competitors. Dieselgate has turned German manufacturers into competitors.

http://www.acea.be/uploads/statisti...l_in_new_cars_in_West_Europe_(1990-2017).xlsx

Diesel's share was already declining, but the decline accelerated after 2015.
It fell significantly 2015 to 2016 and particularly 2016 to 2017. 2017 to 2018 is going to see another significant drop.

The only way out is electrification.

 

[mongo]

If there are other manufacturers pursuing volume in BEVs, they are competitors. If they aren't pursuing volume, they are not competitors. Dieselgate has turned German manufacturers into competitors.

http://www.acea.be/uploads/statistic_documents/Share_of_diesel_in_new_cars_in_West_Europe_(1990-2017).xlsx

Diesel's share was already declining, but the decline accelerated after 2015.
It fell significantly 2015 to 2016 and particularly 2016 to 2017. 2017 to 2018 is going to see another significant drop.

The only way out is electrification.

I think we are in agreement

If the only reason Tesla has market share is because they are the only company in the market, the existence of new competition is a major threat. If Tesla's product can stand on its own, then it is normal business. So yes, competition is a threat, but I'd phrase is as zero competition is a positive (in some ways) and competition existing is neutral. So going from none to some is a relative negative, but not a global negative.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Mercedes was the first auto manufacturer to put out a successful production car, over 100 years ago. Since then other companies have put out cars far advanced to their original 3 wheelers, but Mercedes has endured and is still one of the premier auto manufacturers in the world.

In 2 or 3 years, other companies will bring out advanced EV's . I would imagine that Tesla will also be making an improved EV at that time.

As the market increases, other companies will take market share, but it will be a long time until Tesla can make enough cars to fill all of that demand.

Remember, we still need more Electric autos, trucks, vans, pick-ups, lawn mowers, tree trimers, chain saws, skate boards, bikes, motorcycles, airplanes, HyperLoops, boats, freighters, golf carts, tow trucks, refrigerated trailers, and on and on. Lots of things to keep manufacturers busy and very profitable.

 

[RubberToe]

Remember, we still need more Electric autos, trucks, vans, pick-ups, lawn mowers, tree trimers, chain saws, skate boards, bikes, motorcycles, airplanes, HyperLoops, boats, freighters, golf carts, tow trucks, refrigerated trailers, and on and on.

You forgot about electric scooters, but those are getting banned for being so darn useful and cheap...

SF issues cease and desist order for motorized scooters [Update]

 

[cella]

The US VW build out will be compatible with Teslas: In Terms Of Charging, Tesla Gets The Best Of Both Worlds

This is speculative at this point. Electify America primarily uses CCS, and it is not clear yet if and how Tesla can make their cars compatible. It may not be possible to make a simple adapter since the fast (150kW+) CCS chargers will use liquid cooled cables. While EA also plans to have some Chademo support, it will be limited (50kW only, and probably few stalls per location).

 

[mongo]

This is speculative at this point. Electify America primarily uses CCS, and it is not clear yet if and how Tesla can make their cars compatible. It may not be possible to make a simple adapter since the fast (150kW+) CCS chargers will use liquid cooled cables. While EA also plans to have some Chademo support, it will be limited (50kW only, and probably few stalls per location).

Electrically, the Tesla can interface (J1772).
The liquid cooled type uses the same connector as the sub 150kW version (the liquid is not part of the vehicle interface), but yeah, that might be a bulky adapter.
Phoenix Contact currently makes a Type 1-2 converter cable for AC, something like that would work for the sub 150kW charge rate that Tesla's use..

 

[PMerlevede]

Before Dieselgate they were moving at compliance pace and still insisting that diesel had a role to play. ... In my opinion, Dieselgate has increased competitive pressures on Tesla by forcing the hand of German manufacturers, and encouraged China aggressively to pursue electric vehicle manufacturing as a major export industry.

The "problme" of VW and other European brands is that in the European Markets legislation enforcing lower CO2 will kick in in 2020-2021, with high penalties if the average CO2 of cars sold is too high. EVs are probably the only way out for European brands - expect to see a lot of EVs being offered in Europe a couple of years from now - whether they will be exported to the US, is another question...

 

[tescroft]

German car manufacturers bringing these cars to the market will strengthen Teslas position as leading EV car maker. The Germans will help reducing hesistation against EVs and once their products are on the market by 2020 or 2021, people will recognize the advantages of Teslas technology (own dealerships, own scaling battery production, charging network, OTA update, Autopilot) even more.

 

[Lerha]

That's when you build a charger so powerful, no cars can use it.
Porsche installs first ultra-fast 350 kW EV charging station

"They are using the CCS connector and while Porsche claims that it already has the backend to support 350 kW charge rate, it can currently charge at 50 to 150 kW until vehicles can support higher charge rates. They had to develop a new transformer in order to support the charge points."
It does have support for other cars, no?

 

[miimura]

"They are using the CCS connector and while Porsche claims that it already has the backend to support 350 kW charge rate, it can currently charge at 50 to 150 kW until vehicles can support higher charge rates. They had to develop a new transformer in order to support the charge points."
It does have support for other cars, no?

Of course, these new CCS chargers will support other cars. @mongo was trying to make the point that there are no cars on the market yet that use over 500VDC charging, so any spec over 150kW on a DCFC is meaningless. I'm guessing that even the Mission E, which does support over 500VDC charging, will draw less than 250kW peak from those "Ultra-Fast" 350kW chargers.

 

[Lerha]

Given Tesla's mission of transitioning the world's transportation to sustainable energy usage, and Elon's specific comments on the desire to spur other manufacturers on, your assertion is directly at odds this those goals.

Your post might as well be a marketing phrase. They are a business as a main objective.
Tesla is not some vanguard to develop BEV and electric transportation by a long shot.
Many might be blinded by the barrage of media hype that the company gets to not see the wider world.

 

[30seconds]

Your post might as well be a marketing phrase. They are a business as a main objective.
Tesla is not some vanguard to develop BEV and electric transportation by a long shot.
Many might be blinded by the barrage of media hype that the company gets to not see the wider world.

Ok, tell us. What companies are driving / leading this transition? Audi? Jag? GM?

 

[scaesare]

Your post might as well be a marketing phrase. They are a business as a main objective.

I've seen sufficient action on Elon's part that lends credibility to that mission statement that it appears to be far from just "marketing".​

And contrary to what many may believe, a thriving viable business is not at odds with advancing a cause... indeed it's actually critical, unless your cause is best served my martyrdom.

Tesla is not some vanguard to develop BEV and electric transportation by a long shot.

Given the definition of vanguard: "The forefront of an action or movement"

I'd say that's exactly what Tesla is doing with BEV's.

Many might be blinded by the barrage of media hype that the company gets to not see the wider world.

Or some are so jaded by the actions of other companies that it becomes hard for them to take anything at close to face value.

 

[Lerha]

And contrary to what many may believe, a thriving viable business is not at odds with advancing a cause... indeed it's actually critical, unless your cause is best served my martyrdom.

Its still a business, whether or not one buys into a "cause" speech. The "thriving viable business" comment is ironic because Tesla is the opposite of that, even if one denies the numbers and events within the company this decade.

Given the definition of vanguard: "The forefront of an action or movement"

I'd say that's exactly what Tesla is doing with BEV's.

Eh, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning started a good company back then for sure. But to claim that the company for the past few years has been a vanguard is subjective at best, as many other companies have been steadily creating their own platforms for years without rush.

Or some are so jaded by the actions of other companies that it becomes hard for them to take anything at close to face value.

[/QUOTE]
False, I am exactly saying that one must look at the bigger picture with this industry. Actually I should specified that the Tesla hype is mainly contained in America, and the trickle of it elsewhere has been somewhat tame.

 

[scaesare]

Its still a business, whether or not one buys into a "cause" speech. The "thriving viable business" comment is ironic because Tesla is the opposite of that, even if one denies the numbers and events within the company this decade.

Glad you are seeing my point. Just because an objective is to advance the cause by building business that does so, doesn't make that cause "just a marketing phrase"... although I'd say in 99.999% the cases that is probably the case.

As for "viable", if you think a company of this age that has a market cap value exceeding other major automakers, with the perhaps, largest orderbook in history, and tracking to hit increasing profitability in the next quarter isn't viable, then it's clear to me why we probably don't see eye to eye.

Eh, Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning started a good company back then for sure. But to claim that the company for the past few years has been a vanguard is subjective at best, as many other companies have been steadily creating their own platforms for years without rush.

Yes. Behind Tesla's lead... the exact definition of your chosen word specifies.

False, I am exactly saying that one must look at the bigger picture with this industry. Actually I should specified that the Tesla hype is mainly contained in America, and the trickle of it elsewhere has been somewhat tame.

​

And unfortunately, you appear to not be seeing it.

 

[mspohr]

You forgot about electric scooters, but those are getting banned for being so darn useful and cheap...

SF issues cease and desist order for motorized scooters [Update]

They're being banned because they are a hazard and a nuisance.
People ride them on the sidewalks instead of bike lanes and leave them scattered where pedestrians trip over them.
Good idea. Lousy implementation.
‘Scooters behaving badly’ all over San Francisco