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Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by renim, Oct 8, 2016.
Ab 2030: Bundesländer wollen Benzin- und Dieselautos verbieten - SPIEGEL ONLINE
The states want to allow more new to SPIEGEL information from 2030 no petrol and diesel cars. This is clear from a decision adopted by the Bundesrat adopted in its last meeting. To advocate both SPD and union governed countries a ban.
In the decision, the European Commission is asked to "evaluate the recent tax and contribution practices of Member States on their effectiveness in promoting zero-emission mobility ... so be approved not later than the year 2030, the Union only emission-free cars."
The Greens welcome the decision, but also surprised. "If we take the Paris climate agreement seriously, no combustion engines may after 2030 new street," says Oliver Krischer, Group Vice in the Bundestag. "That the Federal Council decided bipartisan way, and it is right. This is surprising even if Union and SPD echauffieren shortly know when Green demand the implementation."
To meet the climate agreement, the German CO2 emissions are to be reduced by 2050 by up to 95 percent. One measure is the promotion of electric mobility - but so far with limited success. Even a call premium has not yet brought the desired boost.
[Thanx to the Goog.]
Could a German English speaker please clarify? Has Germany passed a law banning the sales of new ICE vehicles in 2030, or is it just being proposed, or something else?
Just being talked about. Wont happen.
That would be me! This was proposed by the states, its not a law yet and to be honest I think it will take a long time until this is passed, if it will ever pass. German car lobby is too strong right now, but I think at some point even they will be in favor of this. Any carmaker who isn't serious about EVs by now will wake up in the next two years.
the balance consinues to shift - well done Elon
Wonderful news. Might be of interest to those posting in the Shorting Oil thread.
And this action will be very easy. A slight tweak to taxation is all that's needed since the EV is superior regardless.
the core of this seems to be to cease Germany's type approvals of petrol and diesel cars after 2030. Ie no new models approved for sale.
Obviously there are major issues regarding type approvals in EU states being automatically accepted EU wide.
but I'm not German
A banning of ICE vehicles would actually be a boon to car manufacturers as it would force them to change. So rather than teacting too late and going belly-up, they may survive. Also, I expect they would get grants and loans from govts to help.
Tesla Disrupts Different - Incumbents' Shackles
Fascinating, as 2030 fits quite well with @dauger's analysis of depreciation of their plants/equipment (see above). By then (2030) their ICE investment "shackles" will no longer be a constraint.
(Unless I read it wrong, which is very possible)
perhaps they chose 2030 as by then one of Audi's many promised EVs might actually be a reality?
Of all the Countries in the EU I do believe Germany could actually do this, after all they did unilaterally ban nuclear power which irrespective of which side of the argument you are on was still a very profound move.
Not a German speaker but it is the Upper House of the German Parliament that passed this proposal. This is the House that represents the States or Lander and is less powerful than the lower House that represents the people directly.
Kinda like the Senate and the House of Representatives used to be back in the day before the direct election of Senators.
This may not be law yet, but the German, Japanese and US manufacturers are getting the message: the internal combustion engine is being phased out, put your R&D into electric.
Tesla's monopoly on luxury EVs will extend for another 3-4yrs, then they will face an onslaught of EVs from company's with lots of engineering and manufacturing capability. Companies who don't have to figure out how to make 200,000 cars a year, build a media player or implement blind spot detection and alerts. This is not unlike other major industry transitions and history tells us that the first movers in those transitions were trampled by the mainstream and forgotten soon after.
I asked my son who invented the spreadsheet and he thought he was clever suggesting Lotus 1-2-3. When I told him it was VisiCalc which was followed by MultiPlan, he said "who?". Add to that who made the first PC's, engineering workstation, file server, database, online store, web search engine, social media network, etc. etc. You may be able to name the companies, but as businesses they long ago ceased to exist.
I'll enjoy my MS, and may even lease another, but by 2021 it's doubtful Tesla will be the EV of choice and may well have followed in the steps of the previous tenant in its Fremont factory (NUMI who?).
note that that banning new type approvals still allows current type approvals to remain in force.
a car type lasts about 6 years, although some 4wd vehicles may have decades between changes, (Mercedes G wagon)
You hardly ever hear about the early innovators like Apple anymore.
Apple was not the first personal computer (think Osborne, Sol, TI and many others) and proves the case in that they have never dominated the market for PCs and still have less than 10% WW share.
They are however the company that proves the point in the phone market. Apple came in no less than 14yrs after Motorola introduced the cell phone, and years after the first smart phones came from from companies including Blackberry, Motorola and Nokia, none of which hold a position of any significance in the phone market today.
SpaceX is also an excellent example of a company that is crushing the first movers.
If Apple is the analogy we want to use for Tesla, then maybe Tesla will dominate the market for drones 10yrs from now, while holding a 1% position for EVs.
Tesla was not the first electric car.
Absolutely correct, just the first with a viable business, just like VisiCorp, Lotus, Sun Microsystems, Motorola, etc.
I'm only suggesting that the German legislature (and several other European countries) have made it clear that Tesla's monopoly will be gone in 3-4yrs and it's very unprofessional management organization will find themselves competing with corporations that don't struggle to figure out how to make 200,000 cars a year, have functional navigation and media players, and have strong brands. In the face of such competition Tesla will wither.
Nobody, including Tesla, has any really unique proprietary technology in their cars. ICE vendors will claim they swirl the fuel/air mixture better than the next guy, but the reality is that none of them have a technology advantage which gives them a market advantage.
Tesla's only proprietary strategic advantage today is oddly not in the car, but is the supercharger network. An L3 charging network is difficult to replicate (the time, money and jumping through bureaucratic hoops, not the technology) and critical to the success of any car that wants to claim it is a long distance EV. Whether GM, BMW, MB, Lexus et al will wake up to that (and they need to do it very soon), will determine whether or not Tesla gets crushed in 2021, or 2026.
You are correct that the major Automakers are waking up to Tesla's EV threat. However, just because they see the threat doesn't mean they can pivot to oppose Tesla that quickly. Here's a great dissertation regarding the issues the incumbents have with moving their current investments in physical plants, etc... to generate competitive EVs.
Tesla Disrupts Different
(I finally got smart and bookmarked it)
It's a long read, but worth it.