Getting interesting... BMW 3-Series EV

[electracity]

BMW can order all the batteries they need. They can order batteries from Panasonic.

No one would take a big battery order from Tesla, so they had to build the space to manufacture batteries to reduce Panasonic's risk. The future of batteries will probably resemble solar panels: A high volume low margin product produced mostly in Asia.

Differences in li-ion product will probably also resemble solar panels. Small differences with no company having a dominate position.

 

[N5329K]

When it comes to EV's, the more the merrier. As can be seen right here, no single car will appeal to everyone. Not even if it's built by Tesla. But many such cars, no matter their manufacturer, will accomplish what the founders of Tesla set out to do, and that's a good thing.
Robin

 

[Swampgator]

Just stop. Global car sales are approx. 77 million units annually. A couple hundred thousand Teslas are going to kill off ICE in 5 years? Typical Tesla fan hubris.....

I'm afraid you will be proven wrong my friend. It's called disruption and Tesla is leading the way. When you can make a more competitive BEV for less money than the competitor ICE the industry will be disrupted. And the legacy makers have so much of their valuations tied up in ICE production assets they will not be able to convert and survive.
And BTW this comes from a Model 3 reservation holder who does not adhere to the CAGW theory at all, so please don't confuse my recognition of an industry disruption with being an EV/Tesla fanboy.
Certainly we all know (or should) that Tesla will sell every car and truck that it can produce during the next 5 years. If they want to make and sell 7 million they will. And by then the legacy automakers will have lost so much in revenue and will have spent all of their cash to try and convert they will no longer be financially viable.

Ask Kodak how this happens.

 

[electracity]

Ask Kodak how this happens.

Kodak is analogous to gasoline and gas stations, not auto manufacturers. Kodak was a chemical company that produced consumables. A great business for the pre microprocessor world.

Traditional car makers today are more analogous to film camera manufacturers. Some will be Nikon and Canon, some will be Contax.

Electrification is not terribly difficult, and some manufacturers like Toyota have a lot of experience. If Tesla had to design their own engines and transmissions they would not have attempted to build cars. The permanent magnet motors in the Bolt may be less sophisticated than Tesla, but is just fine for 99.9% of buyers worldwide.

Electrification does depreciate the engine and transmission processes of traditional car companies. Those areas are not the majority of these companies.

 

[ikjadoon]

I'm not quick to bash the price because it is a BMW, and all BMWs are expensive. And to be honest, looks are subjective. I do agree that the range can be a problem if it is not paired with an ICE but as a PHEV I find the car worthy of consideration. I had never stepped into a BMW dealership until the day I went to check out the i3. My wife loved the car even though she was skeptical of EVs at the time and has less than zero interest in supporting German industry. In the end, I skipped on the car because of its reliability issues, TCO, and preference for a Tesla at that price.

But, ICE BMWs command their price premium because they've proven their strengths against the competition. I don't see that with the i3. IMO, I'm happy to bash them for using their "brand" to overcharge--if that is the issue with the i3's features, design, and performance vs. its price tag.

Looks: true, as such I wrote "polarizing" earlier. When I saw the i3 in-person, it doesn't look as silly as the pictures make it seem, but I don't think the Model 3 is as polarizing visually.

True: it's $44k for a second car. That hurts. As a PHEV, exactly, it can work: but the ICE+EV hybrid in 2017 from a premium brand feels like a stop-gap when 100% electrification is possible (with motivation, vision, and some shareholder support). I see why Toyota capitalized on hybrids in the past; battery costs just weren't low enough for a $23k EV Camry. But Bimmers? :-/

Reliability: Oh, I didn't hear about this. That's a shame. But, yes: the TCO & the existence of Tesla: the i3 doesn't act like a honest competitor with the Tesla. The i3 competed with the Volt and the Leaf; against those, I can see the BMW premium. To Tesla, the i3 seemed like a trial-run.

 

[Swampgator]

Kodak is analogous to gasoline and gas stations, not auto manufacturers. Kodak was a chemical company that produced consumables. A great business for the pre microprocessor world.

Traditional car makers today are more analogous to film camera manufacturers. Some will be Nikon and Canon, some will be Contax.

Electrification is not terribly difficult, and some manufacturers like Toyota have a lot of experience. If Tesla had to design their own engines and transmissions they would not have attempted to build cars. The permanent magnet motors in the Bolt may be less sophisticated than Tesla, but is just fine for 99.9% of buyers worldwide.

Electrification does depreciate the engine and transmission processes of traditional car companies. Those areas are not the majority of these companies.

You might want to read this article for a little more background: How Kodak Failed

Kodak not only knew how to make digital cameras, they invented them

 

[electracity]

You might want to read this article for a little more background: How Kodak Failed

Kodak not only knew how to make digital cameras, they invented them

I know. They were a chemical company that saw the disruption coming. If the Japanese had not colluded they probably would have transitioned. But they could never stay as large as they were, so they would still fail.

Not at all what is happening with cars.

 

[SageBrush]

As a PHEV, exactly, it can work: but the ICE+EV hybrid in 2017 from a premium brand feels like a stop-gap when 100% electrification is possible

100% electrification is possible with a supercharger network in the US, and perhaps (maybe?) a CCS in parts of Europe.

 

[JeffK]

More gas stations should start putting in charging stalls.

 

[LoL Rick]

Anybody curious about the Roadster, the early days of Tesla, and why the other automakers won't compete effectively should take the time to watch this video.

 

[JeffK]

Anybody curious about the Roadster, the early days of Tesla, and why the other automakers won't compete effectively should take the time to watch this video.

This video has always been extremely painful to watch, I'm surprised in all these years no one has enhanced the audio. I'd do it but I'm inherently lazy.

There was great info in the 2016 shareholder's meeting.

 

[Swampgator]

I know. They were a chemical company that saw the disruption coming. If the Japanese had not colluded they probably would have transitioned. But they could never stay as large as they were, so they would still fail.

Not at all what is happening with cars.

Oh really?
Kodak invented the tech but did nothing with it. (GM EV1) After some time they decided digital would surpass film but it would take 10 years. So they waited to see what the market did. (BMW. GM, etc) By the time they decided to move they were dead.
Their main dilemma was if they pushed their own digital solutions that did not involve film, they were taking revenue from their main source. This is exactly analogous to ICE carmakers today.
Does anyone here think BMW will build an electric 3 series that is designed to crush it's current ICE 3 series? Does anyone think their dealer franchises will want to sell that car over the ICE car when they get 47% of their profit from service centers?
BMW would lose billions in revenue while having to invest billions in electrification.
Even if they had the capital to withstand this transition, they do not have enough battery supply to build 500,000 3 series a year. That would take all of the current lithium ion battery supply in the world.
Tesla on the other hand understood this years ago and built their own battery supply capable of powering 500K Model 3's a year. And it plans to build several more probably before BMW sells the first BEV 3 series.
"probably would have transitioned. But they could never stay as large as they were, so they would still fail."

This is exactly the position BMW, GM, etc are in as of today.

 

[Swampgator]

Oh my look at the timing
Tesla's Focus Means Victory Versus Complacent Mainstream In Electric Cars, Analyst Says

 

[SageBrush]

Oh really?
Kodak invented the tech but did nothing with it. (GM EV1) After some time they decided digital would surpass film but it would take 10 years. So they waited to see what the market did. (BMW. GM, etc) By the time they decided to move they were dead.
Their main dilemma was if they pushed their own digital solutions that did not involve film, they were taking revenue from their main source. This is exactly analogous to ICE carmakers today.
Does anyone here think BMW will build an electric 3 series that is designed to crush it's current ICE 3 series? Does anyone think their dealer franchises will want to sell that car over the ICE car when they get 47% of their profit from service centers?
BMW would lose billions in revenue while having to invest billions in electrification.
Even if they had the capital to withstand this transition, they do not have enough battery supply to build 500,000 3 series a year. That would take all of the current lithium ion battery supply in the world.
Tesla on the other hand understood this years ago and built their own battery supply capable of powering 500K Model 3's a year. And it plans to build several more probably before BMW sells the first BEV 3 series.
"probably would have transitioned. But they could never stay as large as they were, so they would still fail."

This is exactly the position BMW, GM, etc are in as of today.

Interesting commentary, although the manufacturers are hoping that 3rd party suppliers of cells will let them continue to be what they have become: car assembly plants. They will not ramp up as fast as Tesla, but perhaps the better question is whether they can compete with Tesla on price. A 30% cost difference on the most expensive part in the car is a huge problem for the GMs of the world.

 

[jonnyg]

It will be a great future example for a new edition of The Innovator's Dilemna.

 

[Waiting4M3]

It's a new "flex" platform, like the hyundai ioniq. We will need to wait and see how good these cars are when the range is over 200 miles. The Ioniq seems to have a lot of wasted space in the front, but that doesn't make it an uncompetitive EV.

A EV with a 3 series interior would be a good competitor to the model 3. Some people want spaceship, some want car.

I think these shared platforms are all questionable. So there are 2 major differences in EV vs ICE/PHEV:

One is wheelbase, most EVs are designed now with batteries under the seat, that, plus a minimum range requirement, puts a requirement on battery size, and in turn, the wheelbase. The M3 is not a small car and Tesla stretched out the wheelbase pretty far, and Tesla has the most advanced tech and highest density, and yet they can not fit a 100kwh pack in it.

Two is weight distribution due to the different placement of engine vs battery pack.

These two combined changes the requirement on chassis reinforcement, steering and suspension tuning significantly.

A few examples:
1) with a long wheelbase, and a heavy engine in the front, it will become much more difficult to turn the car, the ICE version of the car will be crippled vs what can be done in a pure ICE platform
2) the firewall will be wasted weight in the EV, but if you take it out it changes the structural stiffness so you have to reinforce the chassis differently, and now you're not "sharing" as much
3) if you have a front wheel drive platform, and if you remove the weight of the engine from the front wheel, the same suspension and steering design may not give you enough traction, so you have to change it for the EV version, again, not "sharing" as much

 

[jelloslug]

First, the batteries are no longer that expensive.

You have both an engine and a transmission which can be removed. The 3 series is not a large car so you don't even need a large battery pack for a decent range. 60kWh would probably be fine, plenty of space for that.

The engine and transmission have to be replaced (dollar wise) with an electric motor and a final drive gearbox and that will likely end up at the rear axle. BMW will not put any significant amount of the battery pack forward of the firewall. This only leaves the center tunnel and the trunk for battery storage unless they plan on changing the floor pan. That change will require significant (expensive) unique uni-body work to the floor pan. I stand by my assessment that it will be approaching Model S prices.

 

[AssortedBread]

This video has always been extremely painful to watch, I'm surprised in all these years no one has enhanced the audio. I'd do it but I'm inherently lazy.

There was great info in the 2016 shareholder's meeting.

I can't enhance the audio but I can give you the 99% exact presentation, with clear audio and full screen slides.

 

[gregd]

Just stop. Global car sales are approx. 77 million units annually. A couple hundred thousand Teslas are going to kill off ICE in 5 years? Typical Tesla fan hubris.....

At TMC Connect last week, one of the panel members (I don't recall who, sorry!) made a really interesting point. The major car companies are not worried about Tesla grabbing their market share. They're worried about Tesla grabbing the mind-share. I think that is really insightful, and from that perspective, Tesla is really a significant threat. In many ways (um, 400,000 ways, by one measure), they've already won.

 

[JeffK]

The engine and transmission have to be replaced (dollar wise) with an electric motor and a final drive gearbox and that will likely end up at the rear axle. BMW will not put any significant amount of the battery pack forward of the firewall. This only leaves the center tunnel and the trunk for battery storage unless they plan on changing the floor pan. That change will require significant (expensive) unique uni-body work to the floor pan. I stand by my assessment that it will be approaching Model S prices.

Then it simply won't be competitive unless they are planning on badging it with an M3 logo. There's no need for costs to increase that much... If costs do increase that much then you are saying they are crappy engineers.