True. Except the comment is also very insightful into the mentality of leadership at traditional auto makers.
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It seems clear by the tone and rhetoric in the PR arena that many of these companies are in fact terrified, but really feel at a loss to how to address this. ...
And the irony is that the PR spin of Cadillac or Audi or others, ends up pointing out that Tesla is the real thing and they are the pretenders! It's NOT good PR! Even the FUD spin that over time shows itself to be false and ulterior, ends up propelling Tesla's "mind share."
Given that we all are on the same side in these issues I still find it odd that most of us seem to think the world's vehicle manufacturers are in a state of panic over Tesla.
Even Clean Technica quotes recent studies saying 60% of US people are unaware of electric vehicles:
Survey: 60% Of Americans Aren’t Aware Of Plug-in Electric Vehicles … At All
Given that even today when driving outside major BEV concentration areas I encounter lots of people who are totally unaware of electric vehicles. Those of us who imagine a sudden transformational conversion to BEV's are [drinking the Kool-Aid or smoking the dope] of our own community.
Even such huge transformations as telephones, internet, cars themselves and smartphones have taken at least a decade to reach ubiquity, and even then most have taken much longer to reach even 25% market penetration, much less dominance.
BEV's are an important part of auto manufacturers planning, no doubt. However, only the three Germans (VW Group, Daimler and BMW) are really anything close to panic, and they are all moving aggressively to meet regulatory demands with broad market acceptance still unknown. Even Norway, our poster child, has not reached anything close to BEV market dominance.
Cost parity or even cost advantage will contribute to earlier acceptance, to be sure, but there is a giant leap top dominance.
Our common idea that ride sharing and vehicle autonomy will instantly overcome anything else are similarly vastly overstated.
Surely about 1/3 of US millennials don't have cars or plan to have them. Most cannot afford them, many still live with their parents, many others are migrating to large urban areas with plentiful public transportation. Change is obviously coming but that does not mean we're on the cusp of massive instant conversion to BEV's or autonomous vehicles.
Yes the big auto companies are concerned. Yes they're all doing investment on both BEV and autonomy. No, they are not all quaking in their boots about Tesla. BMW clearly is, but few share their risks.
Finally, I am very long TSLA and am an enthusiastic investor. Just think, though, how small BMW is as an auto builder. They have a very deep concentration in high end vehicles including Rolls-Royce and everything above the series 1 and 2. Those latter forays into cheaper cars are barely profitable for them, so they're worried that Tesla is gaining share in the higher levels and is threatening their core profits with the Model 3.
Even though I am academically and professionally closely tied to marketing issues including lots of automobile work, I understand that the emotional ties tend not to drive category choice but do influence brand choice.
The emotional appeal of BEV's (call it mid share if we must trivialize the concept) does play a strong role for early adoption, but beyond early adoption there is a deep resistance to adoption of anything really new. As close to "really new" as we can find in the last fifty years was the Ford Mustang of 1964 and the VW mania of slightly earlier. Neither was truly transformational and neither they nor any other type actually changed broad preferences. In fact the only two broadly accepted 'innovations' have been pickups (the best selling vehicle in the US has been the Ford F-150 for decades, followed by the the GM and Chrysler types) and Hatchbacks (the European marketing equivalent of pickups of North America). BEV's are barely visible in those segments although the latter is more susceptible than the former.
Those among us who imagine this will change quickly are deluding themselves. The auto builders know that. Thus, BEV;s will grow rapidly, especially in Europe, China and India. Some palaces will force more rapid adoption. Still, the legacy builders are not dying, they have plenty of time to adapt. Some will fail, but lack of BEV's will only be a small part of their demise.
So, BMW is launching the new electric 3 series on a new platform intended to allow multiple options for power. They'll succeed, I think. For the record I did own a BMW Z-1 which only demonstrated new technologies for body-building. I have driven but now owned i3 and i8. BMW has a long history of building expensive experiments prior to mass deployment. It's worked well for them. They'll do well this time too. They'll not stop ICE anytime soon. They're not deluded.
