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GF Effect:Nissan Expected To Exit Lithium-Ion Battery Business – Will Turn to LG Chem

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by RobStark, Sep 15, 2014.

  1. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    #1 RobStark, Sep 15, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2014
    Officially, the position right now for Nissan is no comment, but Renault-Nissan inside sources have told Reuters that Nissan will likely exit the business of battery making in the U.S. and UK as soon as next month.

    Per Reuters (via Automotive News)

    “Nissan boss Carlos Ghosn is preparing to cut battery manufacturing, people familiar with the matter said, in a new reversal on electric cars that has reopened deep divisions with alliance partner Renault.”

    “The plan, which faces stiff resistance within the Japanese carmaker, would see U.S. and British production phased out and a reduced output of next-generation batteries concentrated at its domestic plant, two alliance sources told Reuters.”


    It’s further believed that Nissan would then follow Renault in securing batteries from South Korea’s LG Chem (widely considered the world leader in lithium-ion automotive batteries).

    More in link

    http://insideevs.com/nissan-expected-exit-lithium-ion-battery-business-will-likely-turn-lg-chem-future-supply/

    Like many of us here, I did not think Nissan had a prayer to compete with Model ≡ I guess Carlos agrees and will not try.

    Indirectly, joining GM,Ford, and maybe Hyundai to compete with Tesla. And maybe a Samsung-BMW plus group?


    Update: some interesting info from Autonews source

    Japanese engineers are still smarting from Renault's 2010 move to drop Nissan batteries and purchase LG for its flagship Zoe model, worsening the overcapacity problem.

    "It was a 15-20 percent cost gap," said one of the people involved in the Renault decision. "In purchasing, 3-4 percent is usually enough to choose a partner for."


    Today's Nissan batteries come in at $270 per kWh, based on replacement prices thought to be below cost, according to consulting firm AlixPartners. The true manufacturing cost is believed to be over $300 , inflated by the amortization of unused plant capacity and the burdensome electrodes deal.


    The next generation will have lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide cathodes, as used by LG, rather than the current lithium manganese oxide chemistry. The alliance cost target is $200/kWh, whether made or bought, sources said.

    http://www.autonews.com/article/20140915/OEM05/140919905/nissan-may-pull-the-plug-on-some-battery-plant-production-buy-from









     
  2. dpeilow

    dpeilow Moderator

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    Audi is also sourcing from LG Chem. Interesting they are the company claiming a "200 mile" EV in 2015.

    Also interesting that Nissan's pro EV boss just went to Aston Martin.

    Also, I wonder how this will go down given the much heralded opening of this plant in UK political circles?
     
  3. renim

    renim Member

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    #3 renim, Sep 15, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2014
    I call the autonews article and InsideEVs article as mistaken conjecture, similar to proclaiming that Nissan is leaving the engine business because they will now use diesel motors from Daimler in the Infiniti. Infiniti Q50 sports sedan fitted with Daimler four-cylinder diesel engine | Blog of RENAULT NISSAN Alliance
    Infiniti scores Daimler engines | Autocar

    Particularly as the reported quote is 'We will have both, and I hope even more," Ghosn said

    The benefits of localised production in the USA has alot of commonalities between Nissan and Tesla
    1st) cost of land (this is big and also relates to quality and cost, one of the first correction's Mitsubishi Motor's made was to abolished the screening process while doubling the length of the aging process to12 days. Although this lowered production efficiency, it made it easier to find the metal particles mixed into the battery cells.
    2) cost of labour particularly for expansions, southern US labour is more cost effective than Japanese labour.
    3) cost of transport completed Li ion batteries are expensive to transport, even Li ion precursor's are not cheap to transport


    My conjecture is that Infiniti is doing an Infiniti

    so to differentiate the product from Nissan, Infiniti will will use an alternate cells while Nissan will use a cheaper, safer cells.

    Tesla does something similar now, even though the Chemistry of S-60 and S-85 are the same, the S-60 uses cheaper cells, which are probably slightly safer as well.

    Secondly
    NMC is by chemistry a lower energy density than Nickelate (ie NCA etc), increasing the Nickelate content of NMC can make it comparable to NCA, but then it is more accurately described as nickelate. for instance NMC 8-1-1 would be a solid solution of 70% nickelate, 10% cobalate and 20% layered NiMn oxide, is effectively from the same family as NCA, but could be called NMC, as NCA is 80% nickelate whereas NMC 8-1-1 is 70% nickelate, NMC 3-3-3 is 0% nickelate. (not really the best way to describe it, the fundamental of NMC is that the Ni:Mn are strictly in 1:1 ratio, if they are not in 1:1 ratio, then the excess of Ni or Mn perform as some other description ie nickelate.
     
  4. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    #4 RobStark, Sep 15, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 15, 2014

    Autonews nor Insideevs is publishing conjecture but have sourced their claims with people inside the company. You can call them liars if you wish but it is not conjecture.

    Your links are not to insideevs nor autonews making false claims regarding Nissan/Infiniti diesel engines nor to the overall Nissan engine program nor to false claims of any kind.



    LG Chem is a S. Korean company that also has capacity here in the US,China, and S. Korea. They may very well use Nissan's battery plants in the US and UK.

    LG Chem is not manufacturing batteries in Japan for export to the US. They may very well manufacture here and in the UK for the European market.

    Update

    Autoblog Green is reporting that Nissan may shift production of its large battery packs to Japan and may use LG Chem for the smaller packs.


    That is corporatese for a non-denial denial.

    The quote from Nissan spokeswoman does not preclude radical changes tomorrow. :cool:
     
  5. renim

    renim Member

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    Insideevs has stated
    Next-gen lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) employed
    as the second last bullet point in their article Infiniti LE Coming In 2018 With 60 kWh NMC Battery?
    in the future we will see if that conjecture is truth or a lie.

    There is big difference between calling a chemistry NMC when NMC is only a component of less than 50% of the cathode material
    otherwise the LEAF would be called NCA because its cathode is 18% NCA (and 82% Mn Spinel) the Mitsubishi / LG are similar except they are blended with NMC instead of NCA.likewise the UK publication might have one think that Infiniti is going Daimler for motors, they are adding Daimler for motors, but they are still making their own motors.The newsflash a few years ago was that Nissan was going for Hitachi for electric vehicle batteries
    turns out it was Nissan was going for Hitachi for 10kw-15kW class HEV batteries, the 30-kW-50kW HEV batteries remain made by AESC.
    This whole news started from a statement that Bollore (Autolib bluecar hire car) and Renault would work together, Bollore makes a 30kWh LMP battery. Presumably Bollore branded renault will keep their LMP battery, and Renault branded bluecar will use a LG battery.
    LG cells are unique in the auto business for how they are made, its a rotational stating sequence. Very different to either stacking or rolling. They won't be using anyone else's factory. Seriously, LG is unique in how they make automotive li-ion.


    Currently the Renault Nissan Alliance uses AESC, LG, Hitachi for automotive li-ion battery
    next is that they will produce cars for Bollore which Bollore will use their own LMP battery for.

    4 significantly different Lithium battery producers, + PEVE NiMH for Nissan's microhybrid Kei carmore the merrier
     
  6. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    Insideevs tells you in the headline they are making a conjecture, a guess. Or forwarding a rumor.

    They did not get an executive inside Nissan or Infiniti to give them the scoop.

    The future will reveal if it is correct or incorrect.

    But they never stated it was a fact so it can not be a lie.
     
  7. drees

    drees Active Member

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    Those two statements appear to be directly contradictory. What am I missing? For sure, Automotive News is just republishing the Reuters article and InsideEVs is just taking that store and adding some spin.

    I certainly don't see that this has anything to do with any so called "GF Effect" which certainly would be conjecture.
     
  8. mike_j

    mike_j Member

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    I wonder if the Gigafactory will have a counter intuitive effect.

    Because they will be so much more cost effective than any comparable battery plant, investment in competing battery plants over the next few years will be nil.

    Whilst the GF will boost global supply, ROW global supply will be lower than it would have been without the GF threatening to destroy their market.
     
  9. lolachampcar

    lolachampcar Active Member

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    I thought that as well but then considered that (1) Tesla's cost basis for building cars is probably higher than other established OEMs due to Tesla's requirements on quality/safety and Tesla's youth. An advantage on battery tech will help that but would likely not be enough to provide an overwhelming unfair cost advantage. Second, Tesla will likely use the capacity it creates for G3 and Solar City thus leaving the landscape for other OEMs and existing sources close to the current balance. Sure, Tesla will be consuming EV market share but there is a tremendous potential so I believe G3 will work to open the eyes of the consumer thus opening the EV market to more (competing) manufacturers.
     
  10. glhs272

    glhs272 Unnamed plug faced villian

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    I will refrain from speculating what Infiniti is up to. But, I believe the cells used in the Tesla are the same for S60 vs. S85. My understanding is the only differences in those packs is the overall quantity of cells. The 85 uses 16 modules where the 60 uses 14 modules. The 85 type modules have 444 cells per module and the 60 has 372 cells per module (or something around that, those cell counts may not be exactly correct). The 85 and 60 modules are very similar, the main difference is that 60 modules have some "faux" cells in some places where 85 has real cells, such that they can use the same components and manufacturing for both types.
     
  11. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    #11 RobStark, Sep 16, 2014
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2014

    The first statement is regarding their reporting on the discussions inside Nissan regarding their exit form the battery manufacturing business. This has been sourced with people with direct knowledge of the battery program inside Nissan.

    The second statement is regarding a completely separate article regarding the Infiniti LE. This is based on rumor and speculation.

    Even if there are articles that carries both stories it still remains the same. The first piece of information was sourced within the company including the executive level the second about the Infiniti LE was not.

    - - - Updated - - -

    LG is going pedal to the medal forward.


    LG Chem Stakes Its Future On EV Batteries


    The one that might change course is the BMW-Samsung partnership. If BMW is not as committed to mass producing BEVs as Tesla then this consortium needs a few big players to come on board. Honda,Daimler, FiatChrysler somebody.
     
  12. EVNow

    EVNow Active Member

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    By 'no comment' you mean this ?

    Nissan Dismisses Rumors It Will Reduce Electric Car Battery Production in US | Supply Chain content from IndustryWeek

     

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