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Giga Shanghai China
- Thread starter Speedking99887
- Start date
Until at least this Friday. Probably will run on a little longer. The port is still operating though so promising for those whose dates haven’t shifted from early May.
Tam
Well-Known Member
Some companies are creative during the Shanghai quarantine. Banking/financial workers work, eat and sleep inside their campus. GM in China do the same to keep the productions going. They do provide bonuses for living at the work place.
Tam
Well-Known Member
The lock down in Wuhan took 76 days so I won't be surprised if it takes that long for Shanghai as well.
Of course this will negatively affect Tesla production and delivery.
Jason71
Well-Known Member
One day for each day of shutdown one assumes. Except they may get to a point where cars will not arrive q2 so they skip foreign deliveries for the month for quick local sales instead.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Tesla may favour markets that are geographically closer ... so maybe logistics will choose to send all/most/more RHD production to Japan / Australia rather than UK / Ireland this production-quarter ...
Why? Clearly they intend to make the UK cars in the next production cycle as loads of people have May-June delivery dates. This shutdown has delayed the cycles for this one and future ones for other geos. They aren’t going to skip a cycle, it doesn’t make any sense to do that.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
I agree, in the sense that annoying people who are waiting is not good for business.
But a lot depends where the disrupted ships are, how quickly things can be got back to normal, and consequently whether, short term, a decision would be taken to do something drastic.
Not counted for anything in the past. And presumably loads of people in other RHD countries, closer to China, also have those delivery dates. Cars can be got to them, and converted into completed sales, before end-of-quarter financials
Given the unanticipated lockdown unlikely that the order fulfilment system was built to accommodate that. Other brands give delivery dates that are rock solid from day one, and/or provide realistic status updates as the vehicle moves through production. Tesla doesn't work like that ... often VINs are allocated once the car is on a ship and nearing the shore and, if that person can't take delivery at that time, then re-allocated to someone else. So the projected delivery date is not event faintly realistic (i.e. reflecting actual production) until the VIN is allocated. I'm not commending it, but Tesla Service is, currently, based on being able to sell all they can make, jacking up the price / profit if the lead time starts to get long, and tolerating a significant amount of annoyed customers (which other business models would go out of their way to avoid).
Assuming China haven't made any cars for UK market yet (they might have done, just before lockdown started, but if so not many) then May delivery looks very unlikely ... yet people still have May delivery dates.
And I'm also seeing July delivery dates. A start-of-quarter month when Tesla typically have zero UK deliveries. Who knows, ships will, currently, be out-of-position, or just sitting patiently waiting for a cargo, those sorts of logistics will factor in to how Tesla catches back up again and maybe this quarter they will choose to have ships on the high seas at the end of the quarter - or ship everything RHD to Japan and Australia because they are close to China, and then push back all UK / Ireland orders to next quarter.
Great post above. Nothing is certain until a VIN is allocated when the car is on its way over. Who knows what will happen with the closure.
I
Very much more likely it will just delay the cycles following this one including future UK cycles until they can catch up. Tesla suppliers in Shanghai are still operating like CATL so there will be a lot of parts to help.
Terry F
Model 3 owner
'@teslashanghai' account on twitter, which has historically provided some credible info, has suggested that GF Shanghai will not reopen until around 15th May. If so then that will be a huge amount of lost production and Tesla must be having a major re-think about plans for Q2 and Q3. Perhaps even more focus on a rapid ramp-up in GF Berlin?
Pink Duck
Active Member
Ah, Berlin, where the lobby takes longer to build than the main factory… and there’s still a chance for ‘environmentalists’ to appeal the planning approval after plans go public on the 26th.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Time will tell ...
I'm just outlining a possible doomsday scenario as it is only natural for newbies to come to this Forum / Thread filled with optimism. And quite possibly also a firm sale/hand-back-date for a car e.g. coming off Finance. Delivery Date means nothing until VIN is allocated (and even then if they damage it at the docks, or it fails PDI
there may be no spare that can be substituted), and if for some reason cars don't get onto Boats for this quarter (diverted to a nearer market, or lockdown prolonged) then everyone waiting will be fresh out of luck.I'm not envisaging a route for that. My assumption is that all production is already spoken-for (and currently optimised for producing LHD except for, possibly, some Performance ones)
If Tesla can find a way to "ramp up far faster" and if I was the CEO I'd be wanting to know how that was possible after they had previously been telling me it wasn't ...
... if chucking money at it would have got them there sooner, and given they are awash with cash, I don't think they would have been shy.
As someone that works in this industry it doesn’t make sense to skip production cycles. If there were issues with shipping for example then yes there could be a possibility of focusing production on a domestic market but as it’s the factory itself then it makes no sense. The ships are chartered so it’s not like there they are waiting for them to come around on the next cycle to start shipping out RHD cars. Approaching this from a logical and logistical point of view there would be no reason at all to skip all or part of a production cycle.Time will tell ...
I'm just outlining a possible doomsday scenario as it is only natural for newbies to come to this Forum / Thread filled with optimism. And quite possibly also a firm sale/hand-back-date for a car e.g. coming off Finance. Delivery Date means nothing until VIN is allocated (and even then if they damage it at the docks, or it fails PDI
I'm not envisaging a route for that. My assumption is that all production is already spoken-for (and currently optimised for producing LHD except for, possibly, some Performance ones)
If Tesla can find a way to "ramp up far faster" and if I was the CEO I'd be wanting to know how that was possible after they had previously been telling me it wasn't ...
... if chucking money at it would have got them there sooner, and given they are awash with cash, I don't think they would have been shy.
I think the absolute cut-off for a shipment to the UK departing Shanghai for Q2 delivery will be 26 May.
For EU, particularly southern EU we can add a week to that, so 01 Jun for a shipment to Koper.
Since the deliveries figure for Q2 will be very low compared to previous quarters I am sure Tesla will want to make an extra special effort to deliver every car they make in Q2. For this reason alone, I believe Tesla will not want to have shiploads of undelivered cars in transit at quarter end. Accordingly, I would think Aus/NZ and local markets will get priority when the GF eventually does open and the deadline dates above will be absolute.
For EU, particularly southern EU we can add a week to that, so 01 Jun for a shipment to Koper.
Since the deliveries figure for Q2 will be very low compared to previous quarters I am sure Tesla will want to make an extra special effort to deliver every car they make in Q2. For this reason alone, I believe Tesla will not want to have shiploads of undelivered cars in transit at quarter end. Accordingly, I would think Aus/NZ and local markets will get priority when the GF eventually does open and the deadline dates above will be absolute.
Exactly. Thinking they are like buses coming on a set schedule isn't the right way to think about it. They haven’t missed the time slot for sending cars to Europe, they will just charter the ship when it’s ready to ship according to their manufacturing cycle.
