Gigacapacitor?

[Bob Carver]

Elon is well aware of many of the "fringe" companies, and he takes everything serious and looks at the core of every technology to asses their application to what Tesla is doing. I've seen him comment on several of these such as eestor, quantumscape, etc. If you know about it, and your not the only one, then he likely does too. If this is such a secret, then they do not have a prototype or an independently verified proof of concept. That being the case, there is no way they can reach full production in time to have any effect on Tesla's gigafactory. Elon would welcome a supercapacitor if a viable one existed, but since it does not, and he needs to have something in three years in order to start production on the Model E, that is what we have. Any comments about some super secret technology that might come out is just a distraction. Lets keep this thread on the subject of the Tesla gigafactory that will be built to supply batteries for Tesla vehicles and Tesla Energy Storage Modules.

Your lack of logic is amazing. Elon is now all-knowing? Get real. In any case, I'm now joined by others in their skepticism. TheStreet.com wrote that there are several competing battery technologies that could outperform the Li-ion gigafactory. Tesla even warns in its SEC filing that it has no experience (as in zero) building Li-ion batteries. I'm afraid your faith in Elon is blinding you to the risks that Tesla is making a multi-billion dollar mistake.

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I think we can stop talking about this mystery device which has not been seen by anyone in the world. Without independent verification, this is just a poor attempt at FUD to keep Tesla from building a gigafactory.

I'm trying to prevent a multi-billion dollar mistake. Right, shoot the messenger.

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Gigaboner? Really?
Are we dealing with a child here?
One with the magic sauce that no one else knows about?

It wasn't my idea to keep the magic sauce a secret, but I don't own it and don't have the right to disclose it.

 

[dsm363]

Your lack of logic is amazing. Elon is now all-knowing? Get real. In any case, I'm now joined by others in their skepticism. TheStreet.com wrote that there are several competing battery technologies that could outperform the Li-ion gigafactory. Tesla even warns in its SEC filing that it has no experience (as in zero) building Li-ion batteries. I'm afraid your faith in Elon is blinding you to the risks that Tesla is making a multi-billion dollar mistake.

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I'm trying to prevent a multi-billion dollar mistake. Right, shoot the messenger.

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It wasn't my idea to keep the magic sauce a secret, but I don't own it and don't have the right to disclose it.

You really think the factory is locked into one particular chemistry and can't possibly change?

 

[techmaven]

I'm trying to prevent a multi-billion dollar mistake. Right, shoot the messenger.

To put it a different way, Tesla is showing its hand that it is willing to spend billions of dollars on building energy storage devices. So far, the best in their estimation is based on a Panasonic NCA battery cell. Musk was actually a big proponent of super capacitors - he discussed them in earlier interviews. If the people you know have truly invented a super capacitor with the specific energy and volumetric density of Panasonic's NCA cells, or even close, then they certainly stand to gain a lot by presenting their technology to Tesla. The rest would take care of itself.

I am still hoping that a super capacitor in additional to the main traction battery might work out some day - it could take the cycles during regen braking and hard acceleration. Possibly take the worst brunt of the high energy usage and cycling off the main traction battery. Maybe provide the extra boost in an AWD version of the Model S or some SuperSport version.

 

[scaesare]

Until such time alternative technologies (be it battery chemistries or capacitor storage devices) have passed from conception/R&D in to well know mass-producible items, then it would be irresponsible to bet the long-term health of Tesla on such unproven technologies.

Should Tesla go forward betting on 500K volumes for their GenIII with something that may, or may not, exist only in a lab today? I think not.

Meanwhile, in the time it takes to reach that production status for whatever in tech-next, the gigafactory will have likely paid for itself, and Tesla will have a couple of million cars on the road. And if it's simply a chemistry shift, they will likely simply adopt it along the way.

 

[Bob Carver]

To put it a different way, Tesla is showing its hand that it is willing to spend billions of dollars on building energy storage devices. So far, the best in their estimation is based on a Panasonic NCA battery cell. Musk was actually a big proponent of super capacitors - he discussed them in earlier interviews. If the people you know have truly invented a super capacitor with the specific energy and volumetric density of Panasonic's NCA cells, or even close, then they certainly stand to gain a lot by presenting their technology to Tesla. The rest would take care of itself.

I am still hoping that a super capacitor in additional to the main traction battery might work out some day - it could take the cycles during regen braking and hard acceleration. Possibly take the worst brunt of the high energy usage and cycling off the main traction battery. Maybe provide the extra boost in an AWD version of the Model S or some SuperSport version.

Agreed. Maybe the apparently exclusive focus on Li-ion isn't real. Tesla could conceivably pivot fast when they see superior technology if it's available in the timeframe they're looking at. It seems to me from the public information that they are locked into Li-ion, but maybe not. We shall see. If the gigafactory is going to come online in 2017, there's plenty of time to switch.

 

[NigelM]

I'm trying to prevent a multi-billion dollar mistake.

TMC is an odd place to attempt that. If you truly believe it's a multi-billion dollar mistake then I'd advise you to take a massive short position on the stock. You're welcome to contribute to the discussion here but I'm thinking you're not going to get far trying to save folks that don't feel they need saving.

 

[palmer_md]

If the gigafactory is going to come online in 2017, there's plenty of time to switch.

How is there time to switch to a capacitor factory? They are already designing this factory, and construction will begin very soon according to the documents. There is not any capacitor available that can do what Tesla needs for building large numbers of vehicles, nor for use in grid storage. The Li chemstry that they have is proven and they are going to scale up in order to meet their production goals for building cars. It so happens that this can also be used for grid storage, and the sheer size of the endeavor gets the price down to a point where it makes financial sense for using this technology in grid storage. It is a win-win, and Tesla will do quite well with this expansion.

I appreciate that you are trying to help "us" from making a mistake by not looking at the alternative, but so far you have not been able to show an alternative path.

 

[Doug_G]

It's ridiculous to think that you could transition an unproven technology into a large-scale factory in a few years. Won't happen. I've yet to hear of ANY demonstration of an ultracapacitor that would be practical for EV use, never mind even low volume production.

The Gigafactory is NOT a mistake and Tesla and their partners will do very well with it.

 

[palmer_md]

Your lack of logic is amazing. Elon is now all-knowing? Get real.

Well, if there is another technology that has been shown in public, then yes, he knows about it. If it has never been shown in public, then it is not ready for production and is therefore ill suited for use in the Model S, X or E at this time. Your arguments only hold water if there was truly an alternative to the Li batteries that Tesla plans to build in the gigafactory.

 

[techmaven]

Agreed. Maybe the apparently exclusive focus on Li-ion isn't real. Tesla could conceivably pivot fast when they see superior technology if it's available in the timeframe they're looking at. It seems to me from the public information that they are locked into Li-ion, but maybe not. We shall see. If the gigafactory is going to come online in 2017, there's plenty of time to switch.

Well, state of the art graphene super capacitors are expected to have a specific energy under 100 Wh/kg. Tesla's cells are likely in the 250+ Wh/kg and have proven themselves to be reliable performers with significant high life cycle characteristics. Whatever new technology will have to prove itself and making it from the lab to real world use is unlikely to make it for Gen 3.

The perfect opportunity for something like this is when Tesla joins a racing program. :smile:

 

[Krugerrand]

I'm trying to prevent a multi-billion dollar mistake.

Sure you are. Maybe you'd like Elon Musk's or J.B. Straubel's e-mail address? Then you could tell them directly how they are about to make a multi-billion dollar mistake, but that you can't actually tell them any details because it's not your secret to tell. I'm sure that would be most helpful to them; giving them the heads up like that.

 

[Bob Carver]

How is there time to switch to a capacitor factory? They are already designing this factory, and construction will begin very soon according to the documents. There is not any capacitor available that can do what Tesla needs for building large numbers of vehicles, nor for use in grid storage. The Li chemstry that they have is proven and they are going to scale up in order to meet their production goals for building cars. It so happens that this can also be used for grid storage, and the sheer size of the endeavor gets the price down to a point where it makes financial sense for using this technology in grid storage. It is a win-win, and Tesla will do quite well with this expansion.

I appreciate that you are trying to help "us" from making a mistake by not looking at the alternative, but so far you have not been able to show an alternative path.

I probably left a wrong impression that only one technology I've seen is the best alternative. There are many promising successors to Li-ion. I don't have any intention of shorting the stock. But if it were to fall precipitously due to this potential blunder, it would certainly be a buying opportunity because the basic technology of Tesla is great and it could recover in time.

Elon once said that he thought that capacitors would win out over chemical batteries (I think it was in a commencement address at Stanford, in fact, but I'm not sure of that). I'd hate to see him end up being proven right and at the same hurt the company financially. Think of it this way: If Tesla makes a long term bet on a technology (Li-ion) that ends up being expensive compared to the competition, Tesla as a company will suffer competitively. And, a company that isn't so focused on transitioning us away from ICE could end up winning the bulk of the market.

How would you like that to be the outcome of this?

 

[dsm363]

Then they'll start making whatever is cheaper 20 years from now. It's not rocket science (that's his other company).

 

[Bob Carver]

Sure you are. Maybe you'd like Elon Musk's or J.B. Straubel's e-mail address? Then you could tell them directly how they are about to make a multi-billion dollar mistake, but that you can't actually tell them any details because it's not your secret to tell. I'm sure that would be most helpful to them; giving them the heads up like that.

I feel like the engineer that recommended scrubbing the Challenger launch because he saw the risk of launching in sub-zero conditions as too high for safety reasons. The pointy-haired NASA managers ignored him, launched anyway and destroyed the shuttle and its 7 crew members. Hopefully, Tesla can recover if this turns out to be a mistake.

I'm doubtful that any email would change their minds at this point. It seems like Elon is caught between a rock and a hard place and is being forced into this to avoid the loss of momentum when they can't produce any more cars because there just aren't any enough batteries to put into them.

I worked for a tech company in 1999 whose stock was soaring. But, I could see the crash coming in the stock market and the economy and warned the president. He ignored my warnings and the company went bust. I don't think Tesla will suffer the same fate, but it could be severely impacted by a bad decision at this critical time.

 

[dsm363]

Again, the factory doesn't force them into any one particular battery chemistry for enernity.

 

[Bob Carver]

Then they'll start making whatever is cheaper 20 years from now. It's not rocket science (that's his other company).

20 years? If a competitor uses a much cheaper technology in 3 years which has much more of a range, that would put a big dent in Tesla's growth curve.

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Again, the factory doesn't force them into any one particular battery chemistry for enernity.

Right. But, if the cost of the battery is the key determinant in breaking into the mass market, then a competitor with much lower cost will have a huge advantage.

 

[dsm363]

Tesla Gigafactory

Well that competitor with this new super cheap and better battery chemistry would have to scale up a factory in three years for hundreds of thousands of cars.

Many of the advances Tesla needs are coming in different materials that make up the cell while keeping the Li ion chemistry. There is plenty of growth left for Tesla is this arena. If something better and cheaper comes along then Tesla can transition. It's not that difficult.

 

[palmer_md]

I probably left a wrong impression that only one technology I've seen is the best alternative. There are many promising successors to Li-ion.

Thank you for coming back to earth on your commentary. Perhaps you did not mean to come across that way; but it how it read from my end.

On the rest of the subject, I'm afraid we are going to have to agree to disagree. All the potentially successors to the Li technology that Tesla is incorporating into their battery all seem to stem from chemistry changes which can easily be incorporated into this factory. I don't see anything on the horizon that is a complete jump from Li battery technology and therefore the investment into a battery factory is a wise choice given that it needs to happen in order to let the company keep growing.

 

[NigelM]

And, a company that isn't so focused on transitioning us away from ICE could end up winning the bulk of the market.

Your logic is fatally flawed: Tesla shouldn't bet on Li-ion because there's a secret alternative which is ummm, secret! If Tesla doesn't take up the secret alternative then someone else will, but an ICE company will win the bulk of the market that they, ummm, already own. So presumably you're saying that Tesla is the only company that could utilize the secret alternative; but it is secret so the only thing they should really do is not build the gigafactory?

I'm feeling dizzy.

 

[dsm363]

Your logic is fatally flawed: Tesla shouldn't bet on Li-ion because there's a secret alternative which is ummm, secret! If Tesla doesn't take up the secret alternative then someone else will, but an ICE company will win the bulk of the market that they, ummm, already own. So presumably you're saying that Tesla is the only company that could utilize the secret alternative; but it is secret so the only thing they should really do is not build the gigafactory?

I'm feeling dizzy.

I think you nailed it.