Gigafactory 1 production

[ValueAnalyst]

Tesla yesterday published the following paragraph online:

“We began battery cell production at the Gigafactory in early 2017, and by 2018, it will produce 35 GWh/year of lithium-ion battery cells, nearly as much as the rest of the world’s entire battery production combined.”

Do you believe Tesla will produce 35 GWh/year by 2018?

 

[schonelucht]

Voted no for obvious reasons. 200k Model 3 @ 70kWh = 14GWh. 21GWh for Tesla Energy is impossible. The only reason they may come somewhat close is if Model S/X switches over to GF1 sourced cells. Management has been adament there are no plans to do so.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Why not believe them?

It might mean

a) a 35 GWh/year run rate by end of 2018
b) a 35 GWh total production in the year 2018
c) a 35 GWh/year run rate end of 2017

Would be voting for b).

 

[schonelucht]

Why not believe them?

Why believe drastically lowering guidance for Model 3 will not have any impact on GF1 production?

 

[bdy0627]

We have to ask some simple questions: Does Tesla generally guide aspirationally or realistically? Do they have a pattern of achieving what they say in the timeframe they project? What does current energy production at the GF suggest about the timeline?

 

[SwTslaGrl]

I think we also have to factor in the huge packs for the Semi, at least for late 2018.

 

[Cattledog]

Voted no for obvious reasons. 200k Model 3 @ 70kWh = 14GWh. 21GWh for Tesla Energy is impossible. The only reason they may come somewhat close is if Model S/X switches over to GF1 sourced cells. Management has been adament there are no plans to do so.

I'd be shocked if Model S and X didn't shift over when they could - it allows for cheaper cells and frees up Panasonic to provide batteries to others out of Japan. I realize it requires a pack architecture change in S + X. But your point is still a good one:
200K Model 3 @ 70 kWh = 14 gWh
100K Model S+X @ 90 kWh = 9 gWh
Tesla Energy @ 12 gWh?

Doesn't seem likely. Voted no.

 

[bdy0627]

Do we even know the current energy production out of GF?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

These poll results never cease to amaze me...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Do we even know the current energy production out of GF?

Cells for Australia were produced by Samsung, so likely close to zero, one full year after production started for Tesla Energy.

 

[ggr]

Why not believe them?

It might mean

a) a 35 GWh/year run rate by end of 2018
b) a 35 GWh total production in the year 2018
c) a 35 GWh/year run rate end of 2017

Would be voting for b).

I read it as a). GWh/year is a rate, not a total. That's what Elon always means by rate, and he is always misinterpreted.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'd be shocked if Model S and X didn't shift over when they could - it allows for cheaper cells and frees up Panasonic to provide batteries to others out of Japan. I realize it requires a pack architecture change in S + X. But your point is still a good one:
200K Model 3 @ 70 kWh = 14 gWh
100K Model S+X @ 90 kWh = 9 gWh
Tesla Energy @ 12 gWh?

Doesn't seem likely. Voted no.

Those calculations are at pack level. 35 GWh goal was at the cell level.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Cells for Australia were produced by Samsung, so likely close to zero, one full year after production started for Tesla Energy.

Surely Model 3 cells are coming from GF 1.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I read it as a). GWh/year is a rate, not a total. That's what Elon always means by rate, and he is always misinterpreted.

Do you expect GF1 to reach 35 GWh/year "by 2018" using any definition?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Surely Model 3 cells are coming from GF 1.

OP asked for current Tesla Energy production.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Why not believe them?

It might mean

a) a 35 GWh/year run rate by end of 2018
b) a 35 GWh total production in the year 2018
c) a 35 GWh/year run rate end of 2017

Would be voting for b).

Do you expect GF1 production to reach 35 GWh/year at the cell level by any definition?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I think we also have to factor in the huge packs for the Semi, at least for late 2018.

Do you expect Semi production to start at any time in 2018? in 2019?

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Do you expect Semi production to start at any time in 2018? in 2019?

The cell capacity and pack lines could take some time to build out, get dedicated space in the GF1 building etc. I think "release candidates" could be tested in late 2018.

 

[schonelucht]

I read it as a). GWh/year is a rate, not a total. That's what Elon always means by rate, and he is always misinterpreted.

Interesting. I took it as b)

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Interesting. I took it as b)

Nobody ever really knows what Elon means. His statements are often misunderstood. This is nothing new:

Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean?

Ask The Audience: What Did Elon Mean? - 2nd Edition

and this is just in the last three months...