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Gigafactory and Roadsters

Discussion in 'Roadster' started by asgard, Feb 26, 2014.

  1. asgard

    asgard Member

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  2. jeremyz

    jeremyz Member

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    If you were going to build a factory that produces 500,000 battery packs a year, you would want to make really sure that the cells and packs are going to perform well in harsh real-world conditions. What if you had 2,500 high-performance test cars that you could put wirelessly monitored alpha battery packs in for real world, multi-year testing? Would that make sense?
     
  3. Zextraterrestrial

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    I'd probably try and buy one if it was true :wink:
     
  4. Doug_G

    Doug_G Lead Moderator

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    Practically speaking, most Roadster packs are still good for a while yet. In due course they're going to need dozens, at most hundreds, of Roadster packs a year. It's a rounding error. They need a Millifactory for this.
     
  5. Jackyche

    Jackyche Member

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    Here's what we know:
    Panasonic has discontinued Roadster battery cells
    Tesla's going to make their own individual cells.
    There's no immediate need for battery cells for Roadster. Future, yes.
    GigaFactory won't come online until 2017 (assuming no delays).

    Given those facts, I'm expecting Tesla to offer Roadster owners optional new battery packs in 2017/2018.

    What I'm hoping for then, is, new battery design then lead to access to SuperCharger network. Quite a bit of engineering is involved with the new battery pack/cells, so might as well throw something else in there to make it all worthwhile.

    I know, I know, we dreamed about the whole SC for Roadster scenario in about 30 other threads. It just doesn't make sense to manufacture new improved cells, leading to greater range, have a nice extensive SC network by that time, and not bother to give you access to them.
     
  6. samcarney

    samcarney Sam C

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    I hope you are right. Oh how I hope you are right.
     
  7. pharma5

    pharma5 Roadster F#25

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    Would be kinda cool to get an offer for discounted swap to new & improved packs, with all old working packs going to the energy storage network for the solar and wind generation at the Gigafactory. (They're not gonna go net metering, right? :wink:)

    Any "nonworking" packs would have cells removed to help develop/refine/demonstrate recycling steps for key materials.

    Begins to show the overall lifecycle planning for what they do. Very closed loop. Very integrated.
     
  8. adiggs

    adiggs Active Member

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    One entirely speculative idea that might be a good sign for future Roadster battery packs - if you're building a pack intended for stationary storage, would the Roadster chest shaped battery pack or the Model S skateboard / flat style pack be better? As one individual opinion, my wife and I are looking at a pack for home storage, and at least in our home, the chest format looks better to me, mostly because the idea of laying the flat pack out on the floor doesn't look appealing, and bolting it on its side to the wall doesn't sound appealing (does the pack still function correctly on its side, and does the wall need reinforcing with the pack bolted to it).

    So my speculation is that to the extent the gigafactory is building packs specifically for energy storage, the Roadster chest pack seems like a good form factor. And as a bonus, if those chest style packs start being build again, then Tesla will have the form factor in place to also do something new for the Roadster. Still plenty of other engineering and software to be done, I realize.
     
  9. qwk

    qwk Model S P2681

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    Stationary storage does not utilize automotive battery enclosures. Tesla just fits a cabinet with battery modules.
     
  10. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    30% price reduction in 2017.
    40% price reduction by 2020 when GF is fully operational.

    And please don't say "only 40%."
     
  11. Jackyche

    Jackyche Member

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    Is there really a significant market for residential/or otherwise energy storage systems? Given the high cost of batteries and low cost of electricity in general, it seems the cost/benefit ratio is not there.
     
  12. RobStark

    RobStark Active Member

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    For manufacturing plants of any size it is a no brainer.

    For homes it will start much like home solar with people who have electricity bills over $500 per month. There is not an insignificant amount of American mansions with heated pools that have electric bills in the $1500-$10,000 per month range.
     
  13. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    RobStark:
    The usual 8% per year reduction in battery prices yields 39% lower prices in 2020 than 2014.
    I doubt this "40% reduction" is meant against 2014 prices as that would "only" give 1 additional percent of "discount" i.e. no significant price drop from GF, just bigger production.

    I'd bet they are counting on additional 40% lower price in 2020 i.e. ~36% of today prices.
     
  14. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    Let's say a battery is $200/kWh and for longevity and stability 2/3 of the pack is usable, giving you a price of $300/kWh usable.
    Let's then say the battery, being gently used, is able to last 15 years.
    Cost of 1 kWh usable: ($300/15)/365.25 = $0.05476/day
    That's getting pretty low.
    - Demand charge management
    - Full renewable utilization
    - Off-grid
    - Ability to take advantage of any large differentials in peak/off-peak prices
    - Ability to take advantage of the current weaknesses of pricing models
     
  15. hcsharp

    hcsharp Active Member

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    That would be a viable return in most places where the retail time-of-use rate spread is about .12 - .15/kWh. Sadly they won't let you go on TOU rates if you have installed solar here in VT. I don't blame them. The commercial rate spread, especially if you factor in demand charges, is much bigger.
     

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