Gigafactory locations and products

[Buckminster]

From the main thread following Q1 ER:

Kirkhorn mentioned on the earnings call the GFs are getting bigger and they will probably end up building fewer because of this.

My projection:

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
No battery build
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
No room for anything else.

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s
Chubby cells from 2020/21
Power trains for Freemont
Possibly Semi from 2021?
Nevada seems to be out of favour.

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
2170s
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
2170s
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
Will be producing chubby cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with chubby
Roadster from 2021/22 with cubby
Semi? from 2021? with chubby
MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022?
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?)
Chubby cells
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Please fill in the gaps.

 

[Artful Dodger]

My projection:

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
No battery build

Thanks for starting this thread. IIRC, Tesla has already received building permits from the City of Fremont for some battery lines. Presumably for both bty cells and packs, since Tesla's new architecture will be integrated (no modules; just cells-to-pack).

These permits don't mean Fremont is gearing up for large scale production, however. It could just be for Plaid S/X/Roadster, R&D test mules, skunkworks projects, and similar such low-volume vehicles.

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby

Not sure why you think Tesla would move Powerwall/Pack+Megapack assembly to New York. The lines already exist and are in production at GF1/Sparks, and it would be a tremendous logistics burden to transport the finished 2170s from Fremont to New York, as well as a production delay.

Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
M2 from 2023

I don't see M2 (the $25K sub-compact EV) being produced in N.America. It's the least popular segment in the USA, and faces the lowest ASP and lowest margin competitiors. Model 2 will be a big hit in Asia, and will likely need the low cost manufacturing available in China. Small Numbers may be imported to the USA, and I'm certain a Model 2 hatchback would sell in Canada, but again that's an even smaller market.

Cheers!

 

[heltok]

I think Model Y will move from Terafactory Texas to Megafactory Nova.

 

[ggr]

Chubby? Que?

 

[Buckminster]

Thanks for starting this thread. IIRC, Tesla has already received building permits from the City of Fremont for some battery lines. Presumably for both bty cells and packs, since Tesla's new architecture will be integrated (no modules; just cells-to-pack).

These permits don't mean Fremont is gearing up for large scale production, however. It could just be for Plaid S/X/Roadster, R&D test mules, skunkworks projects, and similar such low-volume vehicles.



Not sure why you think Tesla would move Powerwall/Pack+Megapack assembly to New York. The lines already exist and are in production at GF1/Sparks, and it would be a tremendous logistics burden to transport the finished 2170s from Fremont to New York, as well as a production delay.



I don't see M2 (the $25K sub-compact EV) being produced in N.America. It's the least popular segment in the USA, and faces the lowest ASP and lowest margin competitiors. Model 2 will be a big hit in Asia, and will likely need the low cost manufacturing available in China. Small Numbers may be imported to the USA, and I'm certain a Model 2 hatchback would sell in Canada, but again that's an even smaller market.

Cheers!

Thanks, changes made below. I thought it was odd that they assembled power walls in Buffalo...

Chubby? Que?

The new Tesla Maxwell etc. cells are expected to be different dimensions - 4070ish.
Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents
I will refer to them as 4070.

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
No battery build
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
No room for anything else.

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s
4070 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Power trains for Freemont
Possibly Semi from 2021?
Nevada seems to be out of favour.

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
2170s
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
2170s
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
Will be producing 4070 cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s
Roadster from 2021/22 with 4070s
Semi? from 2021? with 4070s
MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022?

Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?)
4070 cells only
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

 

[mblakele]

Maybe this should be a wiki thread?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

https://whyy.org/articles/planned-1...nt-at-south-philly-refinery-site-is-not-dead/

 

[heltok]

Could it make sense for Tesla to build factories in both Austin and Tulsa? Less risks for the future, they can always move future investment to the most favorable state with regards to permits, tax breaks, labor market etc. Introduce some healthy competition between the factories. Cybertruck should require less space and less investments according to Munro. For example they could do:

Austin
Cybertruck 500k/year
Model Y 500k/year
Semi: 20k/year
Batteries

Tulsa
Cybertruck 500k/year
Batteries

 

[LN1_Casey]

Could it make sense for Tesla to build factories in both Austin and Tulsa? Less risks for the future, they can always move future investment to the most favorable state with regards to permits, tax breaks, labor market etc. Introduce some healthy competition between the factories. Cybertruck should require less space and less investments according to Munro. For example they could do:

Austin
Cybertruck 500k/year
Model Y 500k/year
Semi: 20k/year
Batteries

Tulsa
Cybertruck 500k/year
Batteries

I think it'd be far too expensive to try and build 4 GF at once. GF Shanghai is still under construction, GF Berlin is prepping for construction, and so adding both Texas and Oklahoma would be one too many.

You could argue that GF Shanghai may be completed by the time GF5/6 is starting, but I think you're underestimating how much Overlord Musk is probably pushing to get the Trucks out into the market, in addition to getting out of California.

 

[hitchhiker]

Sure, but they seem to be building one per year now. So they could very well build one of those in 21, and the other in 22.

 

[Buckminster]

Rumours of a Gigafactory in UK:
UK Government seeking site for sprawling Tesla EV 'Gigafactory'

 

[Buckminster]

From the main thread:

Has anyone attempted to model out an estimate of cash needs for capex over the next few years building up on a per project basis rather than a % of either current capex or some other ratio? The reason I ask it that it feels like there needs to be a pretty rapid expansion in capex spending to meet all the upcoming expansion plans. I think we've had it a bit easy with the Chinese expansion as they've just been handing out free money so it's probably not a good baseline assumption for cash needs on upcoming expansion plans.

The following items need to either be completed or well under construction within the next 2 years:

• Fremont
  • Ramp model Y production
• GigaNevada
  • Ramp cell production for the semi
  • Ramp powertrain production for the semi
• GigaBerlin
  • Complete Y factory
  • Complete cell factory
  • Localise supply chain with probably seat and powertrain factory
  • start next phases for (probably 3 & semi) along with required local supply chain (batteries/seats/ powertrain)
• Giga"Texas"
  • Giant battery cell production plant
  • capacity for c.500k MY, 250k CT, 50k Semi (guess numbers)
• Global/other
  • Supercharger rollout
  • Megacharger rollout
  • battery storage (from powerwall to megapack)
  • Solar roof production expansion

I'm sure there's other items that I've missed (e.g. ridesharing program, unannounced products, etc) but all of the above sounds like it will cost far more to produce than the low single digit billions tesla has been spending on capex over the last couple of years.

 

[Buckminster]

From the main thread:

It's important to recognize that Elon wrote the "Semi Memo" on the evening of the day the agreement was signed with Panasonic.

This imples that the source of cells for Tesla Semi will be Panasonic @ GF1/Sparks. This agreement locks in pricing and volume by contract for the next 2 years. More importantly, a PURCHASE agreement is now in place, and Tesla is COMMITTED to buying these cells. Tesla MUST build Semi!

My conclusion? "Cells Secured."

As a follow-on inference, this contract further supports the notion that 'Bty Day' will include the announcement of Giga Texas and Cybertruck production. Neither 'Plaid' nor Roadster production is planned in enough volume to require a new 'Terafactory' for its bty supply (Tesla may be able to make enough cells for 'Plaid' + Roadster on the pilot line in Fremont).

Further, sourcing Semi cells from GF1 implies that Tesla is indeed setting itself up to build Cybertruck in huge numbers (Elon always thinks in 'Orders of Magnitude').

If the factory is modular, I expect functional units to provide increments of 250K/yr capacity (5K/wk), with a continuous, but exponential, build out of those modules. IE:

• 2021 1st 250K module enters full production
  
• 2022 +2 more modules 500K added, 750K total CT capacity
  
• 2023 up to +4 more modules 1.5M added as req'd
  
• @2.25M/yr capacity, CT supply matches existing N.Am. full-size truck sales

Cheers!

EDIT: 883.20 EUR in Frankfurt @ 10:00 CET (just before NASDAQ opens ~$995.57 USD)

EDIT2: NASDAQ Pre-Market High in NYC: $992.00 +9.87 (04:29:37 AM)

 

[Buckminster]

Following the Pana deal, I still like what I have outlined here.

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
No battery build
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
No room for anything else.

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4070 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Power trains for Freemont
Possibly Semi from 2021?
Nevada seems to be out of favour.

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
2170s
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
2170s (outsourced)
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
Will be producing 4070 cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s (tent initially?)
Roadster from 2021/22 with 4070s
Semi? from 2021? with 4070s
MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022?

Gigafactory Bristol/London?
2170s (outsourced)
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?)
4070 cells only
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

 

[Buckminster]

If the TSLA AH increase disappoints you, forget it. This was a great day for Tesla!

Elon's confidence was at an all-time high. The path of continued growth to domination is clearer than ever.

Freemont will ramp to 500K/yr 3/Y (probably more when GA5 is finally finished) + 100K/yr S/X
Giga Shanghai will ramp to 500K/yr 3/Y
Giga Berlin will ramp to 2M/yr Y/3/?
Giga Austin (2,100 acres vs 741 acres) is 3 times the size of Berlin and should end up ~5-6M/yr

Just those 4 GFs will take production to 8-9M/yr by 2025/26.

Future GFs in Chongqing and Seoul should both be announced within a couple of years. IMO, good chance Chongqing is similar in size and output to Austin. Does anyone still doubt 15M/yr by 2030? Sure hope. These two may be enough to get us there.

I have never felt better about the company. The bull rush from $1,119 (prior to Q2 deliveries) to now is quite valid regardless of S&P 500 inclusion.

That didn't take long...

View attachment 567839

I couldn't see the marker on google maps but it was near here:
Google Maps

Roadster to be built in Freemont.
Giga (not tera) Texas in Austin - M3, MY, CT and Semi - can anyone confirm?

Nickel is pinch point. Will iron phosphate be used outside of Shanghai?

 

[Mo City]

Roadster to be built in Freemont.
Giga (not tera) Texas in Austin - M3, MY, CT and Semi - can anyone confirm?

Correct. This is what Elon said.

 

[Buckminster]

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
Minimal battery build
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
Roadster

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4070 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
Power trains for Freemont
Possibly Semi from 2021?
Nevada seems to be out of favour.

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
2170s
M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied) (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
2170s (outsourced)
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Texas in Austin
Will be producing 4070 cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s (tent initially?)
Semi from 2021 with 4070s
MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022
M3?

Gigafactory Bristol/London?
2170s (outsourced)
M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
I see little change in the above for 3 years.

Gigafactory Guangdong?
4070 cells only
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Seoul?

 

[Mo City]

I bet Chongqing is the next GF announcement, followed by Seoul.

Maybe vice versa.

 

[jeewee3000]

When Zachary Kirkhorn said in his opening remarks:

As we look forward, Tesla was able to navigate through Q2 due to our agile and dynamic culture. We will continue to appropriately manage our cash flows through cost optimization and close working capital management. This is key as we remain focused on expanding production, scaling our operations and preparing for the launch of three new factories over the next 1.5 years.

Which three new factories is he talking about?

Shanghai (second part), Berlin and Austin? Or Berlin, Austin and to be announced?

 

[Mo City]

When Zachary Kirkhorn said in his opening remarks:

As we look forward, Tesla was able to navigate through Q2 due to our agile and dynamic culture. We will continue to appropriately manage our cash flows through cost optimization and close working capital management. This is key as we remain focused on expanding production, scaling our operations and preparing for the launch of three new factories over the next 1.5 years.

Which three new factories is he talking about?

Shanghai (second part), Berlin and Austin? Or Berlin, Austin and to be announced?

First.