From the main thread following Q1 ER: My projection: Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory) No battery build M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term) No room for anything else. Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1) 2170s Chubby cells from 2020/21 Power trains for Freemont Possibly Semi from 2021? Nevada seems to be out of favour. Gigafactory New York (previously GF2) Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then chubby Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby Solar panels Solar roof Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3) 2170s M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4) 2170s M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?) Will be producing chubby cells only Cybertruck from 2021 with chubby Roadster from 2021/22 with cubby Semi? from 2021? with chubby MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022? M2 from 2023 Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?) Chubby cells Semi from 2022 M2 from 2023 Please fill in the gaps.
Thanks for starting this thread. IIRC, Tesla has already received building permits from the City of Fremont for some battery lines. Presumably for both bty cells and packs, since Tesla's new architecture will be integrated (no modules; just cells-to-pack). These permits don't mean Fremont is gearing up for large scale production, however. It could just be for Plaid S/X/Roadster, R&D test mules, skunkworks projects, and similar such low-volume vehicles. Not sure why you think Tesla would move Powerwall/Pack+Megapack assembly to New York. The lines already exist and are in production at GF1/Sparks, and it would be a tremendous logistics burden to transport the finished 2170s from Fremont to New York, as well as a production delay. I don't see M2 (the $25K sub-compact EV) being produced in N.America. It's the least popular segment in the USA, and faces the lowest ASP and lowest margin competitiors. Model 2 will be a big hit in Asia, and will likely need the low cost manufacturing available in China. Small Numbers may be imported to the USA, and I'm certain a Model 2 hatchback would sell in Canada, but again that's an even smaller market. Cheers!
Thanks, changes made below. I thought it was odd that they assembled power walls in Buffalo... The new Tesla Maxwell etc. cells are expected to be different dimensions - 4070ish. Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents I will refer to them as 4070. Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory) No battery build M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term) No room for anything else. Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1) 2170s 4070 cells from 2020/21 Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Power trains for Freemont Possibly Semi from 2021? Nevada seems to be out of favour. Gigafactory New York (previously GF2) Solar panels Solar roof Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3) 2170s M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4) 2170s M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?) Will be producing 4070 cells only Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s Roadster from 2021/22 with 4070s Semi? from 2021? with 4070s MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022? Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?) 4070 cells only Semi from 2022 M2 from 2023
https://whyy.org/articles/planned-120m-renewable-energy-plant-at-south-philly-refinery-site-is-not-dead/
Could it make sense for Tesla to build factories in both Austin and Tulsa? Less risks for the future, they can always move future investment to the most favorable state with regards to permits, tax breaks, labor market etc. Introduce some healthy competition between the factories. Cybertruck should require less space and less investments according to Munro. For example they could do: Austin Cybertruck 500k/year Model Y 500k/year Semi: 20k/year Batteries Tulsa Cybertruck 500k/year Batteries
I think it'd be far too expensive to try and build 4 GF at once. GF Shanghai is still under construction, GF Berlin is prepping for construction, and so adding both Texas and Oklahoma would be one too many. You could argue that GF Shanghai may be completed by the time GF5/6 is starting, but I think you're underestimating how much Overlord Musk is probably pushing to get the Trucks out into the market, in addition to getting out of California.
Sure, but they seem to be building one per year now. So they could very well build one of those in 21, and the other in 22.
Following the Pana deal, I still like what I have outlined here. Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory) No battery build M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term) No room for anything else. Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1) 2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal) 4070 cells from 2020/21 Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Power trains for Freemont Possibly Semi from 2021? Nevada seems to be out of favour. Gigafactory New York (previously GF2) Solar panels Solar roof Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3) 2170s M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4) 2170s (outsourced) M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?) Will be producing 4070 cells only Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s (tent initially?) Roadster from 2021/22 with 4070s Semi? from 2021? with 4070s MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022? Gigafactory Bristol/London? 2170s (outsourced) M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?) 4070 cells only Semi from 2022 M2 from 2023
I couldn't see the marker on google maps but it was near here: Google Maps Roadster to be built in Freemont. Giga (not tera) Texas in Austin - M3, MY, CT and Semi - can anyone confirm? Nickel is pinch point. Will iron phosphate be used outside of Shanghai?
Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory) Minimal battery build M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term) Roadster Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1) 2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal) 4070 cells from 2020/21 Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s Power trains for Freemont Possibly Semi from 2021? Nevada seems to be out of favour. Gigafactory New York (previously GF2) Solar panels Solar roof Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3) 2170s M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied) (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4) 2170s (outsourced) M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Texas in Austin Will be producing 4070 cells only Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s (tent initially?) Semi from 2021 with 4070s MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022 M3? Gigafactory Bristol/London? 2170s (outsourced) M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term) I see little change in the above for 3 years. Gigafactory Guangdong? 4070 cells only Semi from 2022 M2 from 2023 Gigafactory Seoul?
When Zachary Kirkhorn said in his opening remarks: As we look forward, Tesla was able to navigate through Q2 due to our agile and dynamic culture. We will continue to appropriately manage our cash flows through cost optimization and close working capital management. This is key as we remain focused on expanding production, scaling our operations and preparing for the launch of three new factories over the next 1.5 years. Which three new factories is he talking about? Shanghai (second part), Berlin and Austin? Or Berlin, Austin and to be announced?