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Gigafactory locations and products

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by Buckminster, May 1, 2020.

  1. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    From the main thread following Q1 ER:
    My projection:

    Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
    No battery build
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    No room for anything else.

    Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
    2170s
    Chubby cells from 2020/21
    Power trains for Freemont
    Possibly Semi from 2021?
    Nevada seems to be out of favour.

    Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
    Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
    Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
    Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then chubby
    Solar panels
    Solar roof

    Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
    2170s
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
    2170s
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
    Will be producing chubby cells only
    Cybertruck from 2021 with chubby
    Roadster from 2021/22 with cubby
    Semi? from 2021? with chubby
    MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022?
    M2 from 2023

    Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?)
    Chubby cells
    Semi from 2022
    M2 from 2023

    Please fill in the gaps.
     
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  2. Artful Dodger

    Artful Dodger Supportive Mentor

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    #2 Artful Dodger, May 1, 2020
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
    Thanks for starting this thread. IIRC, Tesla has already received building permits from the City of Fremont for some battery lines. Presumably for both bty cells and packs, since Tesla's new architecture will be integrated (no modules; just cells-to-pack).

    These permits don't mean Fremont is gearing up for large scale production, however. It could just be for Plaid S/X/Roadster, R&D test mules, skunkworks projects, and similar such low-volume vehicles.

    Not sure why you think Tesla would move Powerwall/Pack+Megapack assembly to New York. The lines already exist and are in production at GF1/Sparks, and it would be a tremendous logistics burden to transport the finished 2170s from Fremont to New York, as well as a production delay.

    I don't see M2 (the $25K sub-compact EV) being produced in N.America. It's the least popular segment in the USA, and faces the lowest ASP and lowest margin competitiors. Model 2 will be a big hit in Asia, and will likely need the low cost manufacturing available in China. Small Numbers may be imported to the USA, and I'm certain a Model 2 hatchback would sell in Canada, but again that's an even smaller market.

    Cheers!
     
    • Informative x 1
  3. heltok

    heltok Member

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    I think Model Y will move from Terafactory Texas to Megafactory Nova.
     
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  4. ggr

    ggr Expert in Dunning-Kruger Effect!

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    Chubby? Que?
     
  5. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Thanks, changes made below. I thought it was odd that they assembled power walls in Buffalo...

    The new Tesla Maxwell etc. cells are expected to be different dimensions - 4070ish.
    Tesla Next-Gen Battery With Maxwell Tech & Patents
    I will refer to them as 4070.

    Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
    No battery build
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    No room for anything else.

    Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
    2170s
    4070 cells from 2020/21
    Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Power trains for Freemont
    Possibly Semi from 2021?
    Nevada seems to be out of favour.

    Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
    Solar panels
    Solar roof

    Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
    2170s
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
    2170s
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
    Will be producing 4070 cells only
    Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s
    Roadster from 2021/22 with 4070s
    Semi? from 2021? with 4070s
    MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022?

    Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?)
    4070 cells only
    Semi from 2022
    M2 from 2023
     
  6. mblakele

    mblakele DON'T PANIC

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    Maybe this should be a wiki thread?
     
  7. heltok

    heltok Member

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    Could it make sense for Tesla to build factories in both Austin and Tulsa? Less risks for the future, they can always move future investment to the most favorable state with regards to permits, tax breaks, labor market etc. Introduce some healthy competition between the factories. Cybertruck should require less space and less investments according to Munro. For example they could do:

    Austin
    Cybertruck 500k/year
    Model Y 500k/year
    Semi: 20k/year
    Batteries

    Tulsa
    Cybertruck 500k/year
    Batteries
     
    • Disagree x 1
  8. LN1_Casey

    LN1_Casey Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus

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    I think it'd be far too expensive to try and build 4 GF at once. GF Shanghai is still under construction, GF Berlin is prepping for construction, and so adding both Texas and Oklahoma would be one too many.

    You could argue that GF Shanghai may be completed by the time GF5/6 is starting, but I think you're underestimating how much Overlord Musk is probably pushing to get the Trucks out into the market, in addition to getting out of California.
     
  9. hitchhiker

    hitchhiker Member

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    Sure, but they seem to be building one per year now. So they could very well build one of those in 21, and the other in 22.
     
  10. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    • Informative x 1
  11. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    From the main thread:
     
  12. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    From the main thread:
     
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  13. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Following the Pana deal, I still like what I have outlined here.

    Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
    No battery build
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    No room for anything else.

    Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
    2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
    4070 cells from 2020/21
    Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Power trains for Freemont
    Possibly Semi from 2021?
    Nevada seems to be out of favour.

    Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
    Solar panels
    Solar roof

    Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
    2170s
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
    2170s (outsourced)
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Texas? (Terafactory?)
    Will be producing 4070 cells only
    Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s (tent initially?)
    Roadster from 2021/22 with 4070s
    Semi? from 2021? with 4070s
    MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022?

    Gigafactory Bristol/London?
    2170s (outsourced)
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.


    Gigafactory Guangdong? (Terafactory?)
    4070 cells only
    Semi from 2022
    M2 from 2023
     
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  14. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    I couldn't see the marker on google maps but it was near here:
    Google Maps

    Roadster to be built in Freemont.
    Giga (not tera) Texas in Austin - M3, MY, CT and Semi - can anyone confirm?

    Nickel is pinch point. Will iron phosphate be used outside of Shanghai?
     
  15. Mo City

    Mo City Active Member

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    Correct. This is what Elon said.
     
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  16. Buckminster

    Buckminster Active Member

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    Location:
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    Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
    Minimal battery build
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    MS/MX - 18650 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    Roadster

    Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
    2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
    4070 cells from 2020/21
    Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4070s
    Power trains for Freemont
    Possibly Semi from 2021?
    Nevada seems to be out of favour.

    Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
    Solar panels
    Solar roof

    Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
    2170s
    M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied) (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
    2170s (outsourced)
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Texas in Austin
    Will be producing 4070 cells only
    Cybertruck from 2021 with 4070s (tent initially?)
    Semi from 2021 with 4070s
    MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022
    M3?

    Gigafactory Bristol/London?
    2170s (outsourced)
    M3/MY - 2170 (I'm assuming no change in short term)
    I see little change in the above for 3 years.

    Gigafactory Guangdong?
    4070 cells only
    Semi from 2022
    M2 from 2023

    Gigafactory Seoul?
     
  17. Mo City

    Mo City Active Member

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    I bet Chongqing is the next GF announcement, followed by Seoul.

    Maybe vice versa.
     
  18. jeewee3000

    jeewee3000 Member

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    When Zachary Kirkhorn said in his opening remarks:

    As we look forward, Tesla was able to navigate through Q2 due to our agile and dynamic culture. We will continue to appropriately manage our cash flows through cost optimization and close working capital management. This is key as we remain focused on expanding production, scaling our operations and preparing for the launch of three new factories over the next 1.5 years.


    Which three new factories is he talking about?

    Shanghai (second part), Berlin and Austin? Or Berlin, Austin and to be announced?
     
  19. Mo City

    Mo City Active Member

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    First.
     
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