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Tesla in talks with Thailand for production facility, says government official

Tesla is in talks with Thailand's government for a potential production facility in the country having conducted a site survey late last year, an official from the prime minister's office said on Monday.

The Thai government has offered Tesla 100% green energy to run the facility that could produce EVs or batteries, Supakorn Congsomjit told reporters.

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The country has already drawn over $1.44 billion in investment commitments from Chinese EV producers.
 
These my thoughts, based on observations of drone videos at Austin.

Model Y production and Austin and Berlin ramped during 2023 the run rate Q1 2024 is higher than the run rate Q1 2023.
Model Y production at Austin still seems to be ramping. Cybertruck production is ramping. A second Cybertruck line will be added in the middle of the year.
Currently vehicle production and Austin seems to be 2x12 hour shifts Monday - Friday. By Friday the calibration and testing lot is full, and they spend the weekend emptying it out, Each week seems to follow the same cycle.

Parking at Austin is an issue, and they are building a massive multi-storey car park, a lot more staff will be hired soon, sorting out parking is a priority.

Gen3 at Austin will probably be shipping Q2/Q3 2025. If they start construction soon, Mexico can be shipping around Q2/Q3 2026. Rather than delaying the construction process they will simply rework anything that needs to change a Mexico. Rework at Austin is common, at anytime in the last 6 months there ways probably at least some rework going, they are very good at removing previously laid concrete, inside and outside the factory.

When any other Gen3 factories could be shipping cars depends on when they start, IMO there could easily be another 2 factories lagging 6 months behind Mexico.. It all depends on when Tesla fires the starting gun.

I am assuming the 20 Million car by 2030 is a real target, not that they will necessarily get there, bit I think they will try to hit the target.

IMO a full ramp of all existing factories more or less provides the cash flow to build the Gen3 factories, they also need to line up permits, workforce, parts and raw materials..

If I had to guess the growth rates - 2024 + 400,000, (Model Y and Cybertruck), 2025 + 500,000 (Gen3 and Cybertruck) 2026 600,000 Gen3 - multiple factories. This was just a quick guess, but I am assuming Austin is working a 7 day week on all lines, and that there are no parts or battery constraints.
 
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This was my initial thought as well, and presumably, Tesla would like to establish the usual infrastructure (service centers and charging stations) and get a market understanding of potential sales, prior to going too long on establishing a factory. Supporting 8000 cars / year, would be a ridiculous additional cash drain while building/ramping a factory.

In 30 seconds, I can develop a better plan:

Year 1: Allow to sell 25,000 imports with lower tarrif to test market.
Year 2: Commit 500,000 million to new factory. Allow 50,000 imports.
Year 3 - 5: Continue factory build, hitting certain metrics. Allow 100,000 imports/year.
Completion of factory: Any excess of 100,000 car sales can be imported to make up for lower factory output while ramping.
Factory ramps over 100,000, high tariff returns on imports.
 
Good point on the superchargers. Guess Tesla just need to do it.
I think the Gen3 car can initially be imported in kit form...

The castings and battery packs could be imported as well as many other components..

Initially an Indian factory just needs to do body panel stamping, painting and general assembly.

Then Tesla can progress with localising part supply, local castings, local batteries progressively...

The "kit form" Gen3 car could be in addition to the 8.000 imports per year...

Or Tesla could start with a full Gen3 factory... or even a Megapack factory...

Others posters have made the point that Gen3 lends itself to "kit form" import.

Other cars are shipped into India, on that "kit form" basis, and it could be a good way of starting.
 
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I think the Gen3 car can initially be imported in kit form...

The castings and battery packs could be imported as well as many other components..

Initially an Indian factory just needs to do body panel stamping, painting and general assembly.

Then Tesla can progress with localising part supply, local castings, local batteries progressively...

The "kit form" Gen3 car could be in addition to the 8.000 imports per year...

Or Tesla could start with a full Gen3 factory... or even a Megapack factory...

Others posters have made the point that Gen3 lends itself to "kit form" import.

Other cars are shipped into India, on that "kit form" basis, and it could be a good way of starting.
I doubt many countries would allow it. It's a clear violation of any protectionist policy intent.
 
I doubt many countries would allow it. It's a clear violation of any protectionist policy intent.
Complete knock down (CKD) kits are a time honored way around tariffs. Tesla shipped S/X to the Netherlands without drive unit and wheels installed, cutting the import tariff from 10% to 3%. What MC3OZ describes -- local stamping and BIW joining, paint and general assembly is quite extensive by comparison.