Gigafactory locations and products

[avoigt]

My new video is about the Giga Berlin presentation from Tesla in the Brandenburg Parliament

 

[RubberToe]

I understand all of it. What is your questions?

Thanks @avoigt ,
Will there be a light rail or equivalent stop close to the factory, and when will it open relative to the factory?

Will there also be a heavy rail stop/terminal on the property for vehicle transport out, and raw material in? Will those be electric also?

Will rail be the primary mode of sending out built cars, or will many also go out on trucks, similar to Shanghai?

Will one of the stops be where the current freight unloading spot is?

On my last trip to Germany I was surprised to see electrified heavy rail trains going right through the middle of the passenger station. Nothing like that in California, I was quite impressed. Almost missed my ICE train because I was exploring the whole station.

RT

 

[avoigt]

Thanks @avoigt ,
Will there be a light rail or equivalent stop close to the factory, and when will it open relative to the factory?

They plan to relocate the Fangschleuse station more close to the factory to avoid a shuttle. That may take a long time for regulatory requirements but we will see. Tesla would like to have it asap.

Will there also be a heavy rail stop/terminal on the property for vehicle transport out, and raw material in? Will those be electric also?

Tesla wants to do as much with rail as possible. I dont believe that goods trains are electric but passenger electric trains are quite common in Germany.

Will rail be the primary mode of sending out built cars, or will many also go out on trucks, similar to Shanghai?

Thats what Tesla prefers and if road is needed they intend to use their own Semi. For the transition period, I expect normal trucks.

Will one of the stops be where the current freight unloading spot is?

I don't know

On my last trip to Germany I was surprised to see electrified heavy rail trains going right through the middle of the passenger station. Nothing like that in California, I was quite impressed. Almost missed my ICE train because I was exploring the whole station.

RT

Mod: fixed quoting.--ggr

 

[Buckminster]

Lots of interesting information on the GigaTexas build schedule here: TeraFactory Austin Texas Preliminary Build Schedule --- Substantial completion ****

For example:

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1307780443157258240
Sounds like a lot of Texas logistics will need to be Tesla Semi only.

 

[Christine69420]

Elon Musk Led Tesla In Talks With Karnataka Govt To Set Up R&D Centre In Bengaluru, India.

“The first proposal is for an R&D centre and we have already had at least two rounds of discussions," an official was quoted as saying by Livemint. He added that the India head of Tesla and the industries commissioner of Karnataka are expected to meet again later this month.

Bengaluru is already known as an R&D hub for sectors such as aviation, biotechnology, and information technology. The presence of one of the biggest electric car companies in the world will further boost its stature.

Around a year ago, Elon Musk had expressed his intent to have a presence in India, although he had earlier blamed the restrictive government policy for the delayed entry into the world’s fourth largest automobile market.

Source: Elon Musk Led Tesla In Talks With Karnataka Govt To Set Up R&D Centre In Bengaluru

 

[Buckminster]

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
10 kWh 4680
M3/MY - 2170 moving to 4680 in 2023?
MS/MX - 18650 moving to 4680 in 2022? (Plaid 2021)
Roadster - 4680

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4680 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Power trains for Freemont

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
4680s
M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied)
Moving to 4680s in 2023?

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
2170s (outsourced)
M3/MY - 2170 (supplied)
Moving to 4680s in 2023?

Gigafactory Texas in Austin
Will be producing 4680s cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4680s
Semi from 2021 with 4680s
MY (using 2170s from Nevada) from 2022
M3?

Gigafactory Bristol/London?
4680s
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Guangdong?
4680s
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Pennsylvania? (North East) Breaks ground 2024
4680 cells only
Semi? from 2025
M2 from 2025

Gigafactory Seoul?

 

[ggr]

Freemont (not strictly a Gigafactory)

It's "Fremont".

 

[Buckminster]

Tesla in talks with Karnataka government for Gigafactory, R&D centre in Bengaluru

 

[Buckminster]

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313854912212750346
Berlin will use 4680 cell with structural battery pack & front & rear single piece castings. Also, a new paint system. Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin, which means significant production risk. Fremont & Shanghai will transition in ~2 years when new tech is proven.

Fremont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
10 kWh 4680
M3/MY - 2170 moving to 4680 in 2022/3
MS/MX - 18650 moving to 4680 in 2022/3? (Plaid 2021)
Roadster - 4680

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4680 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Power trains for Freemont

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
4680s
M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied)
Moving to 4680s in 2022/3?

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Texas in Austin
Will be producing 4680s cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4680s
Semi from 2021 with 4680s
MY (4680s) from 2022?
M3?

Gigafactory Bengaluru (plus R&D facility)
4680s
M1? - 4680s
Entering market in 2021 but with what? (TE only?)

Gigafactory Bristol/London?
4680s
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Guangdong?
4680s
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Pennsylvania? (North East) Breaks ground 2024
4680 cells only
Semi? from 2025
M2 from 2025

Gigafactory Seoul?

 

[MC3OZ]

Dave's video is really good ....

2 points I definitely agree with:-

1. Tesla can learn a lot in India
2. Tesla wants to tap local Indian talent.

My points in addition to Dave's are:-

1. India is part of the mission.
2. Indian talent will contribute to designing and making products for India.

Starting now IMO is all about recruiting, training and developing local staff.

it is possibly a 6-7 year plan progressing slowly in stages and developing the staff, the products, the factory, service and charging progressively. So it might start small and I think that would be wise, developing the local team will take time.

 

[MC3OZ]

The average price of a new car in the USA in 2019 was $36,700. The average price of a new car in India is $10,500.

That's not the Model 2, that's the Model 1 for India.

In this context the Indian team definitely helps design Model 1.

if Model 2 is 3 years away Model 1 is 6-7 years away.

I'm thinking $15,000 is a good target for a Model 1, we need to consider fuel and maintenance savings, plus the longevity if an EV model.
TCO is help by all of these factors....

When I used the term Robo-taxi earlier, I should have said ride-share, in the Indian context the additional cost of the driver is not a major consideration. A local will know how to drive to local roads in their car or in someone else's car as a job.
Regardless of what the locals can afford to own, more of them can afford to use a ride-share service.
Fares help pay for the car.

The tricky with India is find ways to make it work, don't give up early...

What Tesla learns in India will be invaluable.

 

[Buckminster]

Some good guesstimates from Rob Maurer:

 

[heltok]

Some good guesstimates from Rob Maurer:
View attachment 596474

Saw his video. I think he makes a big incorrect assumption in that all 4680 batteries would come from Tesla and that CATL etc won’t be supplying any 4680 LFP batteries.

 

[Buckminster]

Fremont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
10 kWh 4680
M3/MY - 2170 moving to 4680 in 2022/3
MS/MX - 18650 moving to 4680 in 2022/3? (Plaid 2021)
Roadster - 4680

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4680 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Power trains for Freemont

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
4680s
M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied)
Moving to 4680s in 2022/3?

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
4680s - first production line at scale
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Texas in Austin
Will be producing 4680s cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4680s
Semi from 2021 with 4680s
MY (4680s) from 2022?
M3?

Gigafactory Bengaluru (plus R&D facility)
4680s
M1? - 4680s
Entering market in 2021 but with what? (TE only?)

Gigafactory Bristol/London?
4680s
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Guangdong?
4680s
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Pennsylvania? (North East) Breaks ground 2024
4680 cells only
Semi? from 2025
M2 from 2025

Gigafactory Seoul?

Gigafactory Jakarta (batteries only)?

 

[Buckminster]

45 mins in, Jordan discusses potential sequence of vehicle/battery type from each Giga.

2170s at Texas seems unlikely to me.

 

[Buckminster]

There's also cell manufacturing in Raleigh NC. I can't wait to hear more about Tesla's CapEx plans - hopefully in the Q4 call. They're clearly working on more facilities in the US for cells and Semi.
View attachment 622413
Link to tweet:
https://twitter.com/Ryan_Alvarez116/status/1344166377741926400

Link to Job:
Careers | Tesla

 

[Buckminster]

2022 should see the start of factory construction for the "model 2" given Elon mentioned deliveries starting in 2023 at battery day.

Between now and 2023 we are likely to see multiple giant facilities spring to life:

• Model 2 facilities - potentially concurrent construction in China, EU, US given likely demand for the vehicle
• Tesla still needs to produce buildings for the 4680 cells in the US and possibly other regions - potential for 2-3 facilities
• The precursor materials may also need refineries (wording?) assuming Tesla takes it in house - numbers could match the number of 4680 facilities.
• Semi production will need a new building in Nevada or eslewhere

All told, there could be up to 10 facilities/expansions required between now and the end of 2023 (excluding current construction) to meet bullish interpretations of guidance. I'm excited to hear what capex guidance we get from the Q4 call around these plans.

 

[Buckminster]

At this point I suspect that the primary driving forces will be access to raw materials plus specific incentives that accelerate deployment and adoption. Much of the world is in flux at the moment debating on energy policy and industrial development. Thus I suspect there will be a surprise or two coming in the next year. Indonesia is likely, but another EU location, another China location, and a surprise will happen. Indonesia certainly will be one large battery factory.

It would also be quite likely that some Tilburg-style CKD+ factories might crop in in places such as South Africa, Argentina, Israel or elsewhere. Both Brazil and Mexico are probable for different reasons but 2022 is most likely for those. All those unusual ones are most likely not to be Gigafactories but will be purpose-built to accommodate Model 2? or equivalent world cars.

Unless disaster strikes 2022 is likely to be all about broadening the Tesla footprint. Thus TE and automotive will have different emphasis depending on local conditions.

I'll wait until next year to know whether I have a clue about this or not.