Gigafactory locations and products

[Buckminster]

This has been superceded by recent guidance, as recently as the 2020 10-K

"We are currently focused on increasing vehicle production and capacity, developing and ramping our battery cell technology, increasing the affordability of our vehicles, expanding our global infrastructure and introducing our next vehicles."​

Both Elon and Tesla have been consistent at least since the 2020 Q2 conference call in stating that Tesla now intends to build fewer, larger Gigafactories (first mentioned prior to the announcement of the site selection for Giga Texas).

The rationale is that Tesla's scarcest resource is engineeering talent, and having fewer but larger factories is the best way to leverage Engineering HR to maximize production growth.

So I see Tesla 2025 Production from these two views: (~7M total)

1. Per Model:
   1. Model S/X/R2: 100K
   2. Semi: 100K
      
   3. Cybertruck: 800K
      
   4. Model 3/Y: 3M
   5. Model 2: 3M
2. Per Site:
   1. Fremont+NV: 1M
   2. Giga Texas: 2M
   3. Giga Shanghai: 2M
   4. Giga Berlin: 2M

So, how does Tesla 2x prod. from 2025 to 2030? How to go from 7M to 20M with their next product. What product has big enough demand?

RoboTaxi / Model 1.

Personally, I think the next 'Giga' location will be for Model 1 / Robotax sometime after 2025, possibly in India. Meanwhile Model 1 lines will be added at Giga Texas, Shanghai, and possibly Berlin (if EU Regulators permitting autonomy).

But basically Tesla will need to add prod. capacity for 14M robotaxis around the world. With all-in-one die-cast chasis and paintless stainless steel bodywork, it might be possible to double prod. at the existing sites, or just buy more land in the vicinity. As always, the bty (and raw materials) supply will be the limiting factor.

More facitlities? Sure, there'll be some Semi prod in NV, the new Li0H mill (either N. Texas or OK), a Li mine in N. NV, maybe a Ni mine w. some manufacturing in Indonesia (to satisfy local prod. req), and hopefully T.E. products in W. Australia (solar, megapack). But these are NOT automotive plants in the traditional sense of the term 'Gigafactory'.

Either way, I don't think we see more 'Giga' sites before India get's a factory to produce affordable locally made EVs. By then, maybe we get Models 1 produced on 4 continents.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Giga India rumors Tesla will set up an electric car manufacturing unit in Karnataka: CM BSY

 

[Mo City]

I'll believe this when Tesla announces it.

 

[petit_bateau]

Notable amongst the UK's list of 8 freeports is the absence of Bristol / Avonmouth (see Freeports: What are they and where will they be?). That suggests to me that any near term notion of the UK getting a full-scale Tesla factory is gone. Previously I thought that unlikely until after the second European factory had been selected (probably Poland or Czech or similar) and this tends to confirm it. If Tesla do sub-scale factories ever (c. 250k-500k/yr) then maybe UK might get a look-in. The latest Brexit developments where UK is now, for the second time, in flagrant breach of international law (EU postpones setting date for ratifying Brexit trade deal) and with the so-called "Loyalist" * paramilitiaries renouncing the GFA (Brexit: loyalist paramilitary groups renounce Good Friday agreement) are also extremely problematic in creating a good atmosphere for any investment into the UK.

(* "Loyalists" these are pro-UK ones, whereas "Republicans" are the pro-Irish ones)

 

[Buckminster]

I am curious do we have through understanding about what is being constructed at each factory? If a thread already exists for this then please point it out to me,

My understanding is as follows:
Berlin
General purpose facilities

Paint Shop​

Battery production facility​

Stamping facility​

Model Y production line(s)

Gigapress for Model Y. How many?​

Are Model 3 production lines being built?
Anything else?
Texas
General purpose facilities

Paint Shop​

Battery production facility​

Stamping facility​

Model Y production line(s)

Gigapress for Model Y. How many?​

Cybertruck production line(s)

Will a Gigapress be used for Cybertruck​

Anything else specific to Cybertruck?
Model 3/S/X will be produced in Fremont only?
Shanghai
Model 3 and Model Y production lines already in place. This includes Gigapress(s) for Model Y.
Whats under construction?

Battery production facility?​

Model 2 production lines?​

What else?​

Fremont
Battery production facility
Changing the temporary tented line to a regular building
Anything else?
Nevada
Anything?