Gigafactory locations and products

[Buckminster]

This has been superceded by recent guidance, as recently as the 2020 10-K

"We are currently focused on increasing vehicle production and capacity, developing and ramping our battery cell technology, increasing the affordability of our vehicles, expanding our global infrastructure and introducing our next vehicles."​

Both Elon and Tesla have been consistent at least since the 2020 Q2 conference call in stating that Tesla now intends to build fewer, larger Gigafactories (first mentioned prior to the announcement of the site selection for Giga Texas).

The rationale is that Tesla's scarcest resource is engineeering talent, and having fewer but larger factories is the best way to leverage Engineering HR to maximize production growth.

So I see Tesla 2025 Production from these two views: (~7M total)

1. Per Model:
   1. Model S/X/R2: 100K
   2. Semi: 100K
      
   3. Cybertruck: 800K
      
   4. Model 3/Y: 3M
   5. Model 2: 3M
2. Per Site:
   1. Fremont+NV: 1M
   2. Giga Texas: 2M
   3. Giga Shanghai: 2M
   4. Giga Berlin: 2M

So, how does Tesla 2x prod. from 2025 to 2030? How to go from 7M to 20M with their next product. What product has big enough demand?

RoboTaxi / Model 1.

Personally, I think the next 'Giga' location will be for Model 1 / Robotax sometime after 2025, possibly in India. Meanwhile Model 1 lines will be added at Giga Texas, Shanghai, and possibly Berlin (if EU Regulators permitting autonomy).

But basically Tesla will need to add prod. capacity for 14M robotaxis around the world. With all-in-one die-cast chasis and paintless stainless steel bodywork, it might be possible to double prod. at the existing sites, or just buy more land in the vicinity. As always, the bty (and raw materials) supply will be the limiting factor.

More facitlities? Sure, there'll be some Semi prod in NV, the new Li0H mill (either N. Texas or OK), a Li mine in N. NV, maybe a Ni mine w. some manufacturing in Indonesia (to satisfy local prod. req), and hopefully T.E. products in W. Australia (solar, megapack). But these are NOT automotive plants in the traditional sense of the term 'Gigafactory'.

Either way, I don't think we see more 'Giga' sites before India get's a factory to produce affordable locally made EVs. By then, maybe we get Models 1 produced on 4 continents.

Cheers!

 

[Buckminster]

Giga India rumors Tesla will set up an electric car manufacturing unit in Karnataka: CM BSY

 

[Mo City]

I'll believe this when Tesla announces it.

 

[petit_bateau]

Notable amongst the UK's list of 8 freeports is the absence of Bristol / Avonmouth (see Freeports: What are they and where will they be?). That suggests to me that any near term notion of the UK getting a full-scale Tesla factory is gone. Previously I thought that unlikely until after the second European factory had been selected (probably Poland or Czech or similar) and this tends to confirm it. If Tesla do sub-scale factories ever (c. 250k-500k/yr) then maybe UK might get a look-in. The latest Brexit developments where UK is now, for the second time, in flagrant breach of international law (EU postpones setting date for ratifying Brexit trade deal) and with the so-called "Loyalist" * paramilitiaries renouncing the GFA (Brexit: loyalist paramilitary groups renounce Good Friday agreement) are also extremely problematic in creating a good atmosphere for any investment into the UK.

(* "Loyalists" these are pro-UK ones, whereas "Republicans" are the pro-Irish ones)

 

[Buckminster]

I am curious do we have through understanding about what is being constructed at each factory? If a thread already exists for this then please point it out to me,

My understanding is as follows:
Berlin
General purpose facilities

Paint Shop​

Battery production facility​

Stamping facility​

Model Y production line(s)

Gigapress for Model Y. How many?​

Are Model 3 production lines being built?
Anything else?
Texas
General purpose facilities

Paint Shop​

Battery production facility​

Stamping facility​

Model Y production line(s)

Gigapress for Model Y. How many?​

Cybertruck production line(s)

Will a Gigapress be used for Cybertruck​

Anything else specific to Cybertruck?
Model 3/S/X will be produced in Fremont only?
Shanghai
Model 3 and Model Y production lines already in place. This includes Gigapress(s) for Model Y.
Whats under construction?

Battery production facility?​

Model 2 production lines?​

What else?​

Fremont
Battery production facility
Changing the temporary tented line to a regular building
Anything else?
Nevada
Anything?

 

[Buckminster]

I'll eat my hat if Tesla builds more than 10-11 total GFs.

Geographically, you might expect:
Toronto, Seattle, Chicago, NY, Mexico, Brazil, Rio, SA, Egypt, Israel, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Russia?, UAE, Turkey, Beijing, Guangzhou, Taiwan, Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata, Thailand, Tokyo, Indonesia, Sydney, UK, Hungary, Seoul.

Edit - forgot Mars... although probably just a minifactory.

 

[Buckminster]

Fremont (not strictly a Gigafactory)
10 kWh 4680
M3/MY - 2170 moving to 4680 in 2022/3
MS/MX - 18650 moving to 4680 in 2022/3? (Plaid 2021)
Roadster - 4680

Gigafactory Nevada (previously GF1)
2170s (10% improved - new chemistry only following Pana deal)
4680 cells from 2020/21
Powerwalls - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Powerpacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Megapacks - 2170s from Nevada then 4680s
Power trains for Freemont

Gigafactory New York (previously GF2)
Solar panels
Solar roof

Gigafactory Shanghai (previously GF3)
4680s
M3/MY - 2170 + Iron Phosphate (supplied)
Moving to 4680s in 2022/3?

Gigafactory Berlin (previously GF4)
4680s - first production line at scale
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Texas in Austin
Will be producing 4680s cells only
Cybertruck from 2021 with 4680s
Semi from 2021 with 4680s
MY (4680s) from 2022?
M3?

Gigafactory Bengaluru (plus R&D facility)
4680s
M1? - 4680s
Entering market in 2021 but with what? (TE only?)

Gigafactory Bristol/London?
4680s
M3/MY - 4680s

Gigafactory Guangdong?
4680s
Semi from 2022
M2 from 2023

Gigafactory Pennsylvania? (North East) Breaks ground 2024
4680 cells only
Semi? from 2025
M2 from 2025

Gigafactory Seoul?

Gigafactory Jakarta (batteries only)?

4680s confirmed for Berlin and Austin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394593654614937603

 

[DarkandStormy]

4680s confirmed for Berlin and Austin:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1394593654614937603

Considering they've said another year for 4680s at scale, we may be waiting for a bit on production out of Berlin and Austin.

 

[petit_bateau]

Considering they've said another year for 4680s at scale, we may be waiting for a bit on production out of Berlin and Austin.

My guess is that once (if) they see the 4680 scaling satisfactorily they can then announce two or three more sites in order to be able to grow the people and the eqpt supply chain at the required rate. My guess is a second China site (i.e. not Shanghai), Brazil, and India. Further expansions would of course be ongoing in parallel at the existing Berlin, Texas, and Shanghai sites to take them towards 2m, 4m, and 2m cars/yr that I think are the ultimate objectives for each. So I'd be looking for the first of these announcements during maybe Q1 of 2022 at earliest. At this point the pacing constraints are likely to be production line eqpt for 4680 mfg, plus the IDRA die-casting machinery. Scaling IDRA is a fairly known problem, but as-yet getting 4680 'right' still carries risk. I don't think they'll want to announce India until they both have a 2 revealed, and the Indian gov has given in on the 100% ownership issue.

Also you only have to look at things like this* to realise that Tesla will want to have stationary storage scaling in all continents fairly soon, and that implies new lines in Europe and China as soon as they can get scale. Remember the 4680 can be both LFP and NMC/NMA, but they will want to at least get a standard form factor before scaling stationary.

* = Analysis: To tackle climate change, China must overhaul its vast power grid

 

[Buckminster]

I'm a contrarian on 4680s capacity. I expect huge output from Tesla in 3 locations. In addition, I am expecting the lower end MYs to be populated with non Tesla LFP 4680s - again available in huge quantity. If either don't scale Tesla can make more of the other. Scaling all the non battery items (Tesla manufactured and supplied) I think will be the bigger challenge. You can't ship when one item is missing.

 

[Buckminster]

Suggestions for being less wrong?

 

[AudubonB]

@Buckminster: Please explain your entries for the Megapack. They certainly are rather different to the other rows’ entries.


On edit: on a phone’s screen, that ‘approximate’ squiggle looked like a minus sign. So it‘s a little clearer now. Nonetheless, you still chose only it to present some possibilities amongst four batteries, unlike the methodology you used for other Tesla products.

 

[Buckminster]

@Buckminster: Please explain your entries for the Megapack. They certainly are rather different to the other rows’ entries.


On edit: on a phone’s screen, that ‘approximate’ squiggle looked like a minus sign. So it‘s a little clearer now. Nonetheless, you still chose only it to present some possibilities amongst four batteries, unlike the methodology you used for other Tesla products.

My assumption is that Tesla will attempt to build & purchase 20-40% more batteries (for each battery type) than they need for auto. If they end up with an excess they can use them in Megapacks. Megapacks are the easiest product to be flexible with - alternate battery design plus build quantities.

In addition, by having multiple battery types feeding into a single product (ie. Tesla built 4680s in Berlin M2 perf and supplied 4680s in M2 SR) Tesla retains supreme flexibility when one has a shortfall.

 

[Watts_Up]

Suggestions for being less wrong?

I believe that the "3/Y Austin" and "3/Y Berlin" should be "Y Austin" and "Y Berlin".

I don't think that Austin and/or Berlin will build a Model 3, while still possibe if there is a real high demand for it, beside the Fremont and China Model 3?

 

[winfield100]

Fairy Modfather: edited to show the graphic, otherwise no point. --ggr

are all these to the same scale, and if so, is there an updated graphic?

 

[MC3OZ]

I linked this video here as it is the reason why Tesla wants to grow as fast as possible and produce 20 Million EVs by 2030.

I'm going to revise by my post above about growth rates, as we need to consider the skills and parts supply chains for all car factory locations..

So for each type of factory we can state the required resources, skills, raw materials, parts etc...

For vehicle production expanding existing factory is mostly the better path...

if we take rough maths of vehicle production rates:-

• 2021 – 0.8- 1Million
• 2022 – 1.5 M
• 2023 – 2.25 M
• 2024 – 3.8 M
• 2025 – 5M
• 2026 – 7.5M
• 2027 – 11.3 M
• 2028 – 17M
• 2029-2030 – 20-25M

This is a rough guide on what a motivated Tesla would try to achieve...

The next step is to map that production to factories/models at least up to say 2026.

 

[Buckminster]

Table updated to remove debunked blade batteries from BYD:

 

[Buckminster]

I believe that the "3/Y Austin" and "3/Y Berlin" should be "Y Austin" and "Y Berlin".

I don't think that Austin and/or Berlin will build a Model 3, while still possibe if there is a real high demand for it, beside the Fremont and China Model 3?

Good point. I think it is likely that Berlin will make the M3. Less likely that Austin will. However, I still think is over 50% likely. Fremont build the SR with 2170s and Austin the new faster performance model with 4680s. We will see.

See picture below from the 2020 Impact Report:

M3 will remain popular and could end up selling more than Y's as it is more suitable as a Robotaxi.

For Brits - notice how Berlin appears to be where we will be getting our cars from. I couldn't be happier.

 

[Watts_Up]

Good point. I think it is likely that Berlin will make the M3. Less likely that Austin will. However, I still think is over 50% likely. Fremont build the SR with 2170s and Austin the new faster performance model with 4680s. We will see.

See picture below from the 2020 Impact Report:

M3 will remain popular and could end up selling more than Y's as it is more suitable as a Robotaxi.

For Brits - notice how Berlin appears to be where we will be getting our cars from. I couldn't be happier.

Unless the Model 3 get a major update with a casting replacing the current chassis,
the Model 3 would not be able to share the same production line with the Model Y.

The Model 3 P will not get the 4680 Cells unless the Model 3 get a new casting.
But with the arrival of the Model 2 (certainly hatchback and with casting chassis)
I think the Model 3 chassis will stay unchanged until the Model 3 get phased out
after been progessively replaced by the Model 2, or by a longer version of the Model 2.

So I really doubt that the Model 3 will ever be built in Austin or Berlin.
If the Model 2 get sold in US, it might be built then in Austin and Fremont.
The Model 2 sold in EU and UK could be built in Berlin.

- The whole US production of the Model 3 will still be made in Fremont.

- I assume that Europe will still get the Model 3 LR and P from Fremont, and the SR from China.

- For the UK, I would be interested to know the current situation. I believe that the Model 3 SR RHD is build in China,
but are the Model 3 LR RHD and the model 3 P RHD imported from Fremont or China?

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Giga Berlin - Full clip from German TV show​