Glass rear window and sedan/liftback discussion

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't think the Model 3 would be able to sell at the 100k+ annual volumes planned for if it looked like the Bolt. I saw it in person and it looks like a $15k car. I haven't seen the Model 3 alphas in person, but from the photos it at least looks the part of a $35k+ car.

And aerodynamics is still probably cheaper than more batteries. GM can afford not to make any money on the Bolt (they get a fair share of value just from the CARB credits), but it is mission critical that Tesla makes a profit on Model 3, so any bit helps.

The Model Y would be for the ones who want a hatch and it'll be in the crossover market, so it avoids the stigma of the traditional hatchback body.

This is not an either or thing. That's what bugs me with this conversation. It is perfectly fine to wonder whether or not sufficient aero and headroom could be achieved in Model 3 size in the sportback format. I get that. Sure.

But the alternative to Model 3 is not a Bolt. And it is not a Prius as some have suggested. Again, this is what I personally think Tesla should have aimed for - the Audi A5 Sportback, a beautiful liftgate hatch that looks sedanish like Model S.

If they had to lift things up a bit for batteries, the alternative still would not be a Bolt or a crossover. There are many designs in-between.

 

[thegruf]

.. Again, this is what I personally think Tesla should have aimed for - the Audi A5 Sportback, a beautiful liftgate hatch that looks sedanish like Model S.

made by VAG, a lying decietful bunch who should have been bankrupted for the fraud they perpetrated; not held up as vehicles to be inspired by.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

made by VAG, a lying decietful bunch who should have been bankrupted for the fraud they perpetrated; not held up as vehicles to be inspired by.

None of that is relevant to this. A5 Sportback is an example of a successful hatchback in Model 3 size that manages to look like sedanish/coupeish and would thus be sellable in the U.S. as well as globally - with great utility akin to Model S.

 

[zenmaster]

Don't know why the car should have fewer components, but the other items sound like a good start. Perhaps as much as 15%. Throw in another 10% tops for the gigabatteries. I don't see where the other 25% comes from. It's really hard to cut costs in half.

It's not hard to reduce costs in half if you are using an entirely new spartan platform. Apples and oranges. Tesla is aiming at a 20% margin on average with these, which is probably more than any other mass produced car! BMW makes $5000 per car on average which is like 12.5% @ $40k/car. Fewer components was the goal to reduce costs. Model 3 with 6000 parts has 2000 fewer than the S.

 

[zenmaster]

But we don't know the GM on either.

BMW could be selling the 3 at razor thin margins, but making out like bandits on the 6.

We know exact the number of cars sold of each model type, and their average selling price. We know their average margin for all cars produced. Good enough.

Porsche pockets $17,250 profit on every vehicle

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

None of that is relevant to this. A5 Sportback is an example of a successful hatchback in Model 3 size that manages to look like sedanish/coupeish and would thus be sellable in the U.S. as well as globally - with great utility akin to Model S.

Well, I think it's just that Tesla's trying hard to squeeze as much aerodynamic efficiency as possible for the Model 3 in order to squeeze as much highway range as possible out of a smaller battery. I believe that for the rear they'll use the same tilted seat trick used by many cars to help provide rear comfort.

Model Y will be the higher utility option. In Tesla's core market, luxury SUVs and crossovers are where the money and sales are.

 

[electracity]

It's not hard to reduce costs in half if you are using an entirely new spartan platform. Apples and oranges. Tesla is aiming at a 20% margin on average with these, which is probably more than any other mass produced car! BMW makes $5000 per car on average which is like 12.5% @ $40k/car. Fewer components was the goal to reduce costs. Model 3 with 6000 parts has 2000 fewer than the S.

Ha. More likely the M3 has negative margins at lower volume, and Musk is worried. There is no way Tesla is building the coachwork at a lower cost than BMW or Toyota.

 

[zenmaster]

Ha. More likely the M3 has negative margins at lower volume, and Musk is worried. There is no way Tesla is building the coachwork at a lower cost than BMW or Toyota.

Not what Musk is telling shareholders. The original goal was 25%! Model S margins slightly less @ 22% last year.
Tesla Model 3: Elon Musk sees the vehicle generating ~$20 billion in revenue with 25% gross margin (TSLA)
I don't think you can get away with that because costs are planned. You could get away with slipping production timelines somewhat which is expected.

 

[gregincal]

@ohmman I am waiting for your science on how Audi A5 Sportback is impossible.

It's not impossible, just trade offs. I like the A5 sport back, but most of the reviews talk about the back seat being a bit tight, but OK. Also, it doesn't actually have any more luggage space than the A4 sedan (but does have better access) and is quite a bit more expensive. The theme of a lot of reviews is that the A5 sportback is more about style over practicality, and the normal A4 sedan is the much more practical car.

 

[Topher]

And aerodynamics is still probably cheaper than more batteries.

Especially since aerodynamics are R&D cost, not per car. And they are planning on 500k per year. $100 Million in aerodynamics work, ends up adding $25 dollars per car. Or they could add 250 Wh of batteries (1 miles range) instead, for that price.

The difference between 0.308 and 0.21 drag coefficient amounts to about 2.5 Billion gallons of gas. There's your 'energy independence' right there.

Thank you kindly.

 

[North75]

None of that is relevant to this. A5 Sportback is an example of a successful hatchback in Model 3 size that manages to look like sedanish/coupeish and would thus be sellable in the U.S. as well as globally - with great utility akin to Model S.

I agree that the A5 sportback is a good looking car. But is it going to outsell the A4 in the US?
I'd put money on significantly more sales of the A4.
How many BMW 3 series GTs do you see compared to sedans?

 

[Laban]

I agree that the A5 sportback is a good looking car. But is it going to outsell the A4 in the US?
I'd put money on significantly more sales of the A4.
How many BMW 3 series GTs do you see compared to sedans?

Apparently, the GT versions hadn't had much success in the US:

BMW 5-Series GT Not Selling Well, To The Surprise Of No One Outside BMW

The “GT” is a bit of a misshapen monster

More on the looks:

Oh Look, BMW's Made Another Ugly GT Car. Hello 3-Series GT

I somehow get the feeling that the A5 sportback won't do that much better.

 

[contaygious]

I see abunch of those in marina sf. I never understood it. Just buy a wsgon or suv...just as long anyway for parking. I have an x1.

 

[thegruf]

None of that is relevant to this. A5 Sportback is an example of a successful hatchback in Model 3 size that manages to look like sedanish/coupeish and would thus be sellable in the U.S. as well as globally - with great utility akin to Model S.

which is precisely why the Model 3 has 400K deposits on it and the Audi Sportback has got next to nothing in comparison.

It is getting increasingly tedious reading endless "the Model 3 must have every feature that ever existed on any car or the it will be total crap" type posts.

I rather suspect that Musk and Tesla know a damn sight more about what they can realisitcally achieve and how to be successful than those carping from the sidelines ever will.

I'm no fanbois of Tesla, they get some things very right, some less so and some plain wrong but what they have achieved to date has been incredible by any measure, furthermore there is every likelihood that the M3 will be a manufacturing limited success which is all it needs to do, and likely at a profitability that will have other auto-makers at a significant disadvantage given their control of the battery supply chain and experience in ev manufacturing to date which so far only MB seem to be trying to emulate perhaps due to their prior association with Tesla.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I agree that the A5 sportback is a good looking car. But is it going to outsell the A4 in the US?
I'd put money on significantly more sales of the A4.
How many BMW 3 series GTs do you see compared to sedans?

The difference with A4 and 3 Series is: they have station wagons for Europe. Sportback/GT are positioned a bit differently and priced a bit upwards anyway...

Sedans are not that popular in Europe and some other places. People buy A4 and 3 Series station wagons.

That's why Model S is such genius. A company with limited number of models is wise to to have universally accepted ones. Model S, like Audi A5 Sportback, combines many of the benefits of sedans and station wagons...

Model 3 trunk probably works for U.S. just great. Europe is a bigger question.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

which is precisely why the Model 3 has 400K deposits on it and the Audi Sportback has got next to nothing in comparison.

It is getting increasingly tedious reading endless "the Model 3 must have every feature that ever existed on any car or the it will be total crap" type posts.

I rather suspect that Musk and Tesla know a damn sight more about what they can realisitcally achieve and how to be successful than those carping from the sidelines ever will.

I'm no fanbois of Tesla, they get some things very right, some less so and some plain wrong but what they have achieved to date has been incredible by any measure, furthermore there is every likelihood that the M3 will be a manufacturing limited success which is all it needs to do, and likely at a profitability that will have other auto-makers at a significant disadvantage given their control of the battery supply chain and experience in ev manufacturing to date which so far only MB seem to be trying to emulate perhaps due to their prior association with Tesla.

Sales figures of A5 Sportback are rather irrelevant, though FWIW around 200 000 have been sold in Europe. But it is one model of 10+ different variants of the A4 family that has not been available everywhere.

Were the choices A4 sedan and A5 Sportback only, I can imagine a different outcome. Now the station wagons are taking the volumes.

 

[smac]

You can of course apply the exact same logic on the 3 vs S/X.

Actually I do

Margin % is likely to be S -> X -> 3

There is no way the P100D really costs £100k more to produce than the S60, yet that is the premium for enthusiastic box ticking. (Sorry using UK pricing, as I checked it a day or so ago).

Even if the M3 battery was free after the Gigafactory, it can't possibly have the same margin as a loaded MS.

 

[Sonny Daze]

I want the car that is best for me. I don't care how many 3s are sold as long as they stay in business. I don't get any discount if they sell 100K or 500K a year.

With all the talk of Audi Sportback and BMW GT, don't forget about the BMW 4 series Gran Coup.

 

[Laban]

With all the talk of Audi Sportback and BMW GT, don't forget about the BMW 4 series Gran Coup.

BMW 3 Sedan: $33 000
BMW 3 GT: $43 950
BMW 4 GC: $41 950
Audi A4 Sedan: $34 900
Audi A5 Sportback: 43 775

The Model 3 is supposed to be a $35 000 car..

 

[smac]

We know exact the number of cars sold of each model type, and their average selling price. We know their average margin for all cars produced. Good enough.

Porsche pockets $17,250 profit on every vehicle

Sorry it's not good enough.

We know Porsche are the GM leaders, because they exclusively sell on brand/luxury. With an entry price Macan costing double that of the VW Tiguan, is it because the Porsche badged version costs twice the amount to produce? (I highly doubt that).

I'd truly love to know the GM per vehicle stream of VW/BMW/Merc, but of course manufacturers are never going to tell us, because if they did we as customers would know we are profiting them more as we go up the range, and demand deeper discounts when negotiating sticker price. (Now of course if we did then low end stuff wouldn't get subsidised to bump the average GM, and they'd struggle to stay in business, but that's a whole different thread).