Glass rear window and sedan/liftback discussion

[stopcrazypp]

This is not an either or thing. That's what bugs me with this conversation. It is perfectly fine to wonder whether or not sufficient aero and headroom could be achieved in Model 3 size in the sportback format. I get that. Sure.

But the alternative to Model 3 is not a Bolt. And it is not a Prius as some have suggested. Again, this is what I personally think Tesla should have aimed for - the Audi A5 Sportback, a beautiful liftgate hatch that looks sedanish like Model S.

If they had to lift things up a bit for batteries, the alternative still would not be a Bolt or a crossover. There are many designs in-between.

Again the A5 is not the in between point, it is exactly the mini-Model S that would have the compromised rear headroom (the others brought up the great point of the floor battery, which is around 4 inches thick and will change the leg position, so the seat can't be too low). So it'll be something between that either has a taller roofline or a slope that is moved further back.

Something like that would look similar to the 3 series GT or the Prius.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Again the A5 is not the in between point, it is exactly the mini-Model S that would have the compromised rear headroom...

Which I would have voted for 100 times out of 100. Apparently I have little sway in the Tesla board room.

I'm much more concerned about the controls/display at this point.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

BMW 3 Sedan: $33 000
BMW 3 GT: $43 950
BMW 4 GC: $41 950
Audi A4 Sedan: $34 900
Audi A5 Sportback: 43 775

The Model 3 is supposed to be a $35 000 car..

Audi A5 Sportback's price has nothing to do with its form-factor. It is in Model 3's class - a member of the Audi A4 family technologically.

Audi pricing and furnishing as a bit special model is just their product positioning. It is made a bit sportier and priced as such.

Audi A4 Avant the station wagon has even more sheet metal than A5 Sportback but is close to A4 sedan's price.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Which I would have voted for 100 times out of 100. Apparently I have little sway in the Tesla board room.

I'm much more concerned about the controls/display at this point.

Well that is not really the point. I probably would personally choose the hatchback too given the choice.

However, the argument was pretty much over whether it would be possible to design something that would not sacrifice headroom, while still keeping the styling and aerodynamic goals.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Again the A5 is not the in between point, it is exactly the mini-Model S that would have the compromised rear headroom (the others brought up the great point of the floor battery, which is around 4 inches thick and will change the leg position, so the seat can't be too low). So it'll be something between that either has a taller roofline or a slope that is moved further back.

Something like that would look similar to the 3 series GT or the Prius.

Prius and BMW are boxy. Tesla would not have to be. A big difference right there. But I get it a lot of the rest is of course up for speculation and debate.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I still find it quite plausible Model 3 back window could simply be cut "in half" at a suitable place by a structural bar and a similar side-mounted hatch lifting from that area. The bar could be behind where the heads are.

Simply split the big window. Upside would be bigger central window possibly - and a big trunk opening of course.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Prius and BMW are boxy. Tesla would not have to be. A big difference right there. But I get it a lot of the rest is of course up for speculation and debate.

I'm talking purely about the roof profile slope, which is decidedly not boxy for either. The profile leaves room for the rear passenger heads and is taller than the A5 (or Model S proportionally). This looks "ugly" in most cases.

The lower the roof profile and the earlier the slope happens (without leaving as much room in the rear) the sportier and better it looks. This is something the A5/A7/Model S shares at the detriment to rear headroom.

The floor battery makes it an even bigger challenge for the Model S/3.

 

[zenmaster]

Sorry it's not good enough.

We know Porsche are the GM leaders, because they exclusively sell on brand/luxury. With an entry price Macan costing double that of the VW Tiguan, is it because the Porsche badged version costs twice the amount to produce? (I highly doubt that).

I'd truly love to know the GM per vehicle stream of VW/BMW/Merc, but of course manufacturers are never going to tell us, because if they did we as customers would know we are profiting them more as we go up the range, and demand deeper discounts when negotiating sticker price. (Now of course if we did then low end stuff wouldn't get subsidised to bump the average GM, and they'd struggle to stay in business, but that's a whole different thread).

Nah, it's good enough. BMW and Mercedes both make $5000 each car on average. There's less margin on mass produced 3 and C class. It's like 10% margin per car on average.

Tesla makes 23% margin on Model S, and plans to make 25% on the Model 3 even though Model S price will be double Model 3 price on average. So they will be doubling their profits per car compared to the industry.

 

[thegruf]

Actually I do

Margin % is likely to be S -> X -> 3

There is no way the P100D really costs £100k more to produce than the S60, yet that is the premium for enthusiastic box ticking. (Sorry using UK pricing, as I checked it a day or so ago).

Even if the M3 battery was free after the Gigafactory, it can't possibly have the same margin as a loaded MS.

thats a bit like comparing a tuned car with a stock car. The base model of any car is inevitably the "best value" options always deliver extra margin, but they also deliver manufacturing complexity which is what Tesla are trying to minimise for good reason as this is the most difficult thing to achieve economically.

I believe that Tesla will achive similar margins for the base models or at least for the average spec for each model.

Lost in the noise is that Tesla are investing heavily in production automation too, iirc a claim from the German company working with them was that they were 7 years ahead of the typical German plant; that's at least one full model generation if not two leaps ahead.

With effectively a massive order book, they can also prioritize manufacturing for a near standard optioned model the sweet spot for early profitability too, and when this is depleted (if ever?) they can go on to the higher spec models with more features to maintain value.

With effectivbely in-house battery supply as well, I beleieve these guys are in a really good place, and other auto makers are really scrambling to keep up, even if they are so huge relatively they are not exactly threatened today.

Remember it is the simplest thing in the world for Tesla to add more features as the model matures to keep it fresh and up with the competition as necessary. They will have contingencies for this no doubt.

 

[thegruf]

I still find it quite plausible Model 3 back window could simply be cut "in half" at a suitable place by a structural bar and a similar side-mounted hatch lifting from that area. The bar could be behind where the heads are.

Simply split the big window. Upside would be bigger central window possibly - and a big trunk opening of course.

you want to bet that Telsa havent considered this for a future extension to the range?
simple first, more options later, the design clearly has this in mind to me at least.

 

[melindav]

The bar could be behind where the heads are.

that would be right in the rear view mirror visibility line.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

that would be right in the rear view mirror visibility line.

Maybe it would, maybe it wouldn't. Hard to say what could be designed exactly.

Model S/X have great rear-view cameras. OTOH, in Model X seven-seater one see pretty much nothing out the back window...

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I agree that the A5 sportback is a good looking car. But is it going to outsell the A4 in the US?
I'd put money on significantly more sales of the A4.
How many BMW 3 series GTs do you see compared to sedans?

You guys are still missing my point, though.

I am looking at what single form-factor would sell Tesla most globally, since Tesla can't do sedan, wagon, coupe, sportback, cabriolet variants of one car like Audi can...

Model S shape is appealing everywhere. Model 3 as a sedan not quite as much IMO.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

you want to bet that Telsa havent considered this for a future extension to the range?
simple first, more options later, the design clearly has this in mind to me at least.

We are all speculating. I speculate Tesla considered it but the big glass window faction won, European market be damned.

 

[ohmman]

You guys are still missing my point, though.

Perhaps a few hundred more posts reiterating the same position will help us?

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Perhaps a few hundred more posts reiterating the same position will help us?

Maybe?

Look. Saying Model 3 sedan sells great in U.S. is s bit like saying Model 3 stationwagon would sell great in Europe.

Irrelevant for the big picture.

A hatchback like Model S simply has more universal appeal. Trust me, it matters a lot to its relative success in Europe. And it still manages to work great in the U.S.

 

[thegruf]

You guys are still missing my point, though.

I am looking at what single form-factor would sell Tesla most globally, since Tesla can't do sedan, wagon, coupe, sportback, cabriolet variants of one car like Audi can...

Model S shape is appealing everywhere. Model 3 as a sedan not quite as much IMO.

and you too are missing the point.

with 400K deposits, you make the easiest model to engineer first with the best margin first to maximise your early returns, then you extend the range later.

This means you don't necessarily make the precise model/options that AnxietyRanger wants on day one.

However AnxietyRanger may still be tempted as it is a damn good car nonetheless even if not quite perfect, then a year or two later AnxietyRanger trades and upgrade to the facelift which now has all the toys he was looking for.

AnxietyRanger wins, Tesla wins

In the meantime that corrupt decitful pile of sh*t (imho) that makes Volkwagens and Audis continue to sell well specc'd if faceless relics to thiose who can't or won't undersand that the world needs to change, and yes I was a former A5 and RS5 owner so I know very much what an A5 is.... and isn't.

 

[ohmman]

Maybe?

Look. Saying Model 3 sedan sells great in U.S. is s bit like saying Model 3 stationwagon would sell great in Europe.

Irrelevant for the big picture.

A hatchback like Model S simply has more universal appeal. Trust me, it matters a lot to its relative success in Europe. And it still manages to work great in the U.S.

Speaking of not getting the point, few have disagreed with that assessment from what I can tell. The counterpoint that is being made is that perhaps it is not quite so simple to just shrink the model S, due to the smaller wheelbase. To preserve rear seat headroom is not simplistic with the batteries in the floor and aerodynamic concerns. You have not countered that point successfully.

Most of us seem to believe that Tesla would choose to reproduce their most successful vehicle if possible. Your contention is that they would vastly prefer a big piece of rear glass. I personally find that to be a notion that borders on absurd. But, since we've established that anything is possible in your world, I'll grant that it is possible.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

@thegruf Not really about me. At this pace I'm joining the big @smac in the I-Pace club.

I am having a product conversation/speculation. I think making a Model 3 hatchback could have been as simple or even simpler than the big window hatchish sedan they came up with. One car, many more markets covered. This is high praise for the Model S from me in a way.

I am not saying Model 3 won't sell. As a pioneer EV it will. I am talking what IMO would and could have made it a better product. A small Model S would have been a better product IMO than Model 3.

Let's just hope Model Y won't be a small Model X, but a tall/small Model S instead. I fear the worse, though.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Speaking of not getting the point, few have disagreed with that assessment from what I can tell. The counterpoint that is being made is that perhaps it is not quite so simple to just shrink the model S, due to the smaller wheelbase. To preserve rear seat headroom is not simplistic with the batteries in the floor and aerodynamic concerns. You have not countered that point successfully.

I doubt it is possible to convince anyone of a topic such as this once positions are taken and the real proof a hard and expensive design process away. We are all speculating and people come with their own biases and points of view that affect things. Me as well.

I definitely do and would settle for being heard and agreeing to disgree. I disagree with you that it has happened with most. I agree it has happened with a minority.

Most of us seem to believe that Tesla would choose to reproduce their most successful vehicle if possible.

Have you seen the Model X?